Pittsburgh Pirates WAR Surprises

Jul 4, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates outfielders

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(right) wait out a pitching change against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

First, The Pittsburgh Pirates starting outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are projecting to have the highest combined WAR of any team in Major League Baseball. As we all expected, McCutchen at 6.2 leads the team and has the third highest WAR trailing only Mike Trout and Buster Posey. Marte is second highest with a 3.7 followed by Polanco with a 3.2. This would equate to a 13.1 WAR for the starting outfield.

Last season, McCutchen finished as a 6.8, Marte was 4.3 and Polanco a 0.3 for a total of 11.4.  When you think of who the Replacement’s could be this season, you think of names like Corey Hart, who has potential to be a starter in right against lefties, Jaff Decker, Andrew Lambo, or even the recently demoted Jose Tabata.

When you think of Tabata, you have to wonder what has happened to him. He broke into the league in 2010 and played in 102 games while posting a promising WAR of 1.7. He rode that WAR and other glimpses of stardom to a contract extension that hangs over the team to this day.  He followed that season up with a 0.5 in 2011, then a -0.5 in 2012, then a surprise season at 1.1 in 2013 before another terrible year at -0.6. He has had many chances and hasn’t capitalized on them. Don’t expect the Pirates to be saddled with his “talents” much longer.

Next, we take a look behind the plate

Next: Debate Behind the Plate

Mar 23, 2015; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher

(34) and catcher

(29) talk during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As we all know, the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates catcher position has been greatly debated this season. It came as a surprise to me that none of the catchers on the roster project above 1.0.

Francisco Cervelli is coming off a season where he appeared in just 49 games for the Yankees and posted a 1.2 WAR. This season he is being projected as a 0.9.

Tony Sanchez posted a 0.0 WAR last season as he only saw action in 26 games. This season Sanchez projects at a 0.7 WAR.

Finally, Chris Stewart had a 1.0 last season in limited action, just 49 games, behind Russell Martin. This season he projects as a 0.4.

Based on projections, Pirates fans should hope to see these projections be extremely low for ONE of these catchers. Health and playing time will be the key factors. At this point, I don’t think it is realistic to see any of the three reach a WAR of 4.9 like Russell Martin posted last season. However, in order to succeed, I would believe we need one of these catchers to finish with a WAR in the 2.0 range.

Speaking of Russell Martin, Martin’s 4.9 was his best season since 2008 when he was with the Dodgers. Martin’s move to Pittsburgh from New York was a big change and you can see that just by looking at his numbers. His two years in New York were 2.4 and 2.0. Once he came to Pittsburgh, His WAR doubled to 4.0 in his first year here. Perhaps this gives us a glimmer of hope that Cervelli can show similar success in moving from the large market Yankees to the smaller market Pirates.

Next, we move to the mound…..

Next: Call to Arms

Mar 5, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher

(47) throws a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankeesat a spring training baseball game at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Francisco Liriano does not have the top WAR of the staff, as that honor goes to Gerrit Cole with a 2.9. Liriano projects at a 2.6 this season after posting a 1.9 last season. However, if we take a look back to 2013, Liriano posted a 3.3. After signing his 3 year/$39 million contract in the off season, it is safe to say the expectations are high.

Gerrit Cole may have the top projection among Pirates starting pitching this season, but you may be surprised to learn that Vance Worley had the third highest WAR on the staff last yer, posting a 1.6. This year he projects as a 1.4, which is higher than Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke combined, and just slightly below A.J. Burnett at 1.6. AJ struggled with the Phillies last season and posted a 1.5 WAR. His previous two seasons in Pittsburgh were 4.2 and 3.1. It would also be a welcome surprise to see AJ put up numbers similar to his previous stint with the Pirates.

Fittingly, we close our look at surprising WAR numbers with the bullpen.

Next: Closing Time

Mar 12, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher

(35) throws a pitch during a spring training baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Melancon‘s WAR the past two years were 2.0 in 2014 and 2.5 in 2013. This year he projects only at 0.9. Some may be surprised to see the number this low but if we compare Mark the Shark to other closers in the game, His WAR is in the same range as some of the best closers in the game today. For example, Aroldis Chapman of the Reds projects at 1.5, as does the Braves Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland of the Royals comes in at a 1.4, Cardinals Closer Trevor Rosenthal comes in at 1.1, Former Yankee/Current White Sox closer David Robertson comes in at 0.9, the same as Melancon. A few other notable closers would include Seattle’s Fernando Rodney at 0.4, Orioles Zach Britton at 0.3, and A’s Huston Street at 0.3. Of course, Melancon has the highest WAR among members of the Shark Tank. The next closest projection is Tony Watson with a 0.6 after posting a 1.5 last season.

As Opening Day approaches, the Pirates continue to prepare for a WAR of a different kind. Keep in mind that their is no way to predict the intangibles that may occur at any time during the long Major League Baseball season. However, WAR is as close to a purely statistical measure of a player’s worth to a team as we can get.

Yet still, as some of these numbers illustrate, there is always room for surprises along the way.

Next: Pirates Pirates Bench Picture Gets Clearer