These Pittsburgh Pirates could hit 25+ Home runs in 2015

The 2014 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates offense took a huge step forward in many areas.  Everyone knows about the team’s offensive rankings:  fifth-best in MLB in .AVG, third in .OBP, and seventh in .SLG.  But I’m willing to bet that some Pirates fans may still be surprised to learn that the Bucs ranked sixth overall in home runs.  That’s right, sixth.  That put them ahead of such traditionally home-run happy teams as the Los Angeles Angels and the Detroit Tigers.  And, it is surprising that the Bucs would rank so high, with a down year from the team’s chief power threat in Pedro Alvarez, to go along with  absences from Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker, who had a career year regardless.  

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In 2015, the Pittsburgh Pirates could very well wield the power of the longball to an even greater extent than 2014, creating a terrifying scenario for the National League Central and beyond.  In today’s game, the ability to create instant offense is perhaps even more valuable than during the heights of the Mark McGwire–Sammy Sosa days.  As home runs decrease steadily in this new era, those teams that display good team-level power carry a significant edge over those that may rely on one or two pure power hitters.

As the Pirates were completing their 18-4 drubbing of the Philadelphia Phillies, the six home runs hit by the Bucs (two of which came from Alvarez) stirred in me a sudden realization.

The Pirates could have multiple players with 25+ HR this season.

A multifaceted Pirates offense built on both speed, good contact, and power would absolutely render them a force to be reckoned with throughout all of baseball.  No longer relying on one or two power threats in the lineup, the Pirates could quite possibly trot out a lineup that is dangerous in a myriad number of ways.  Today we are going to highlight those that have the best chance of launching 25 or more cannonballs into the rapturous PNC Park crowds.

We start with the obvious choice.

Next: The obvious

Mar 28, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen (22) warms up before the start of the spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew McCutchen has long since served as the prominent offensive threat in the Pirates’ lineup.  Cutch has averaged just under 21 home runs per year in his six total years in the majors, including a career-high 31 in 2012.  McCutchen followed that campaign by hitting 21 in his MVP season in 2013, and 25 in 2014.

It’s very clear that as the major league ballclub has improved over the past few years, teams pitched McCutchen differently.  His walk rate has improved year-over-year, from 10.4% in 2012 to 15.3% in 2014.  Last season’s walk rate for Cutch is especially telling.  Taking 84 free passes on the year left him with the second-highest total of his career, and this despite having 45 fewer at-bats than in 2013.  McCutchen has developed into a disciplined hitter, yet Pirates fans should be thankful that his disciplines does not approach Joey Votto-like levels, thus depriving the Pirates of runs.  The bottom line for McCutchen’s HR total is this:  as the batters around him mature, so will his home run numbers.  Projection;  27 HR.

Of course, that number could be much higher if the hitter(s) behind him contribute to the levels that they care capable of.

Next: Frightfully bully again?

Mar 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) singled during the second inning against the New York Yankees at a spring training baseball game at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What can one say about Pedro Alvarez’ 2014 season that hasn’t already been said?  Exactly, so we will keep our eyes solely on the future.

The power stroke shown by El Toro during this year’s spring training has been encouraging to say the least.  I have been firmly in the “Move Pedro to first base” camp since his fielding troubles began, yet for a different reason than most.  Rather than focusing on how the shift to first can improve his defense, I’ve often tried to deduce how it may improve his offense.  At this time, we have no way to quantify that of course, but I am confident that over the 2015 season, Pedro will show us that without the stigma of his third base woes, his approach to the plate will improve.

Of course, Alvarez is no stranger to working to improving his game.  The Big Bull became a full-time big leaguer in 2012, and since then he has improved his AB per HR rate (the amount of at-bats in between home runs) from 17.5 in 2012 to 15.5 in 2013.  in 2014, that number jumped to 22.1.  It doesn’t take a sabermetric genius to understand that his woes in the field absolutely played a part in losing confidence at the plate.  Despite that jump, Pedro did endeavor to lower his K% rate from a disastrous 33.3% in 2013 to 28.5% in 2014.

Now as we enter the new year Pedro seems to be making the transition to first without any major issues.  While his defense may remain suspect until it becomes second nature to see him at first, it’s clear that his power stroke is right where it needs to be for him to be what this team needs:  The Big Bull.  Projection:  32 HR

The next Pirate on this list had a career year in many ways in 2014, but can it be improved upon?

Next: Can The Kid take another leap?

The names that did not make this list are impressive.  Josh Harrison and Gregory Polanco both have outside shots at 25 HR, but they would have to take different paths to get there.  For Harrison, he would have to first guard against major regression of his .353 BABIP from last season for him to even have a shot.  20 HR seems more likely.  For Polanco, the path to 25 HR is much clearer.  He needs to continue to take strides with each game and with each at-bat.  The results have spoken for themselves this spring, but we still need to see how he is performing in the summer months, after starting the year on the 25-man for the first time.

One name you may have noticed is missing is Starling Marte.  While many on these pages are bullish on Marte, and I am one of them, I’m not sure that 25 home runs are in the cards.  But the brilliance of Marte’s emerging stardom is that his game is not based on power in any way, so any surge in that category is stricly a bonus.  I feel comfortable predicting that he could very well hit between 20-25, but I won’t be disappointed if that number is closer to 20.

Regardless of the actual totals of all players mentioned here, the Pittsburgh Pirates are becoming an offensive power right before our very eyes.

What do YOU think?  Do you think that Harrison, Polanco, and Marte are shoo-ins for an uptick in power this year?  Let us know in the comments or on social media!

Next: The surprising WAR values of the Pittsburgh Pirates