Pedro Alvarez vs NL Central pitchers

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Recently, I gave an impassioned plea for Pedro Alvarez to be installed as the cleanup hitter for the 2015 Bucs. I made my case through highlighting the myriad ways that the Pirates offense would benefit from such a move. Via the magic that is baseball-reference.com, today I will now show you how Pedro Alvarez historically fares against the opposing pitchers in the hotly-contested NL Central.

Let’s start with the Reds.

The Big Bull vs the Big Red Machine

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLG
Mike Leake514312300089.279.392.349
Johnny Cueto49437000248.163.224.163
Homer Bailey333252024110.156.182.406
Manny Parra15142000017.143.200.143
Sean Marshall12120000006.000.000.000
Aroldis Chapman990000006.000.000.000
Tony Cingrani993100506.333.333.444
Sam LeCure770000005.000.000.000
J.J. Hoover661000002.167.167.167
Burke Badenhop430000011.000.250.000
Total19517830602111560.169.231.236

 

We can plainly see here that Pedro’s performance against current Reds pitchers is lackluster at best.  The slashline of .169/.231/.236 is anything but inspiring.  There is a silver lining however.  Aside form Homer Bailey having his number, Pedro’s strikeout rate against the heavy hitters in the Reds lineup is encouraging.  Striking out only 18% of the time against Johnny Cueto is an achievement of its own for the free-swinging bull.  While overall the strikeout rate is high at 33.7%, we can look to the numbers against Aroldis Chapman and Tony Cingrani as the culprits.  During the games this year against the Reds, Pedro would do well to get to the starting pitching early and often, especially when facing Mike Leake.  Keeping Chapman napping in the bullpen without a save opportunity would do wonders for every Pirate.

Next: El Toro against the Beer Makers

Jun 8, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) hits an infield single against the Milwaukee Brewers during the seventh inning at PNC Park. The Brewers won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Here are Alvarez’ numbers against the Brew-Crew:

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Kyle Lohse4443103014113.233.250.372.622
Matt Garza262310301833.435.500.6961.196
Wily Peralta21198004824.421.4761.0531.529
Francisco Rodriguez17132000024.154.353.154.507
Mike Fiers12101001222.100.250.400.650
Will Smith10100000008.000.000.000.000
Tyler Thornburg1050000052.000.500.000.500
Jonathan Broxton430000012.000.250.000.250
Jim Henderson2110000101.0001.0001.0002.000
Neal Cotts100000100.000
Total14712732607231738.252.347.465.812

We see here that these stats are much more Pedro-like, with a surprisingly fair average to go along with good slugging numbers.  I was happy to see just how much Alvarez owns Matt Garza and Wily Peralta.  For Pedro to be counted on against the Brewers, he’s going to need to solve Mike Fiers.  Fiers came onto the scene last year in a big way, finally putting it together after a few middling years in the majors previously.  His 2.13 ERA was impressive, as was his 9.5 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings).  If Alvarez can put up respectable numbers against Fiers, it could lead to a lot more sweeps in series against Milwaukee’s ‘Best.’  I don’t need to tell you that sweeping a team is the easiest way to make up ground in the division, and renewed success against Fiers could mean more rubber games going the Pirates’ way.

Next: The mysterious Chicago Cubs

Jun 9, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) runs the bases to score a run against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Things get considerably tougher to analyze when we look at Pedro’s numbers against the Chicaco Cubs.

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Edwin Jackson353310201528.303.343.455.797
Jason Hammel30295023515.172.200.621.821
Travis Wood21211100008.048.048.095.143
Jake Arrieta881001101.125.125.500.625
Pedro Strop883002202.375.3751.1251.500
Hector Rondon772000001.286.286.286.571
Jason Motte441000000.250.250.250.500
Phil Coke331000002.333.333.333.667
Justin Grimm220000002.000.000.000.000
Total1181152432713329.209.229.452.681

The elephant in the room here is not even in the room at all.  Jon Lester, not pictures, has never faced Pedro Alvarez.  Until we see how Alvarez fares against the Cubs’ marquee pitcher, we can’t quite get a handle on what to expect.  Of course, that is even if he stays in against lefties at all (For the record, I think he should).   Looking at the rest of the Cubs’ pitching staff, it’s quite hit or miss, except mostly miss.  Aside from Edwin Jackson and Pedro Strop, Alvarez doesn’t fare too well against Cubs pitching.  Don’t get too excited about his numbers against Jackson, as Jackson is quickly falling out of favor at Wrigley, and may very well implode before he gets a chance to serve some more meatballs to Pedro.

The reverse of the Reds pitcher scenario is almost true here.  Pedro Strop is projected to be the Cubs’ setup man, getting to the ninth where Hector Rondon could be the closer.  Despite having only 15 ABs against the two pitchers, Pedro seems to hit them well.  Alas, small sample size rules the day again.  Don’t be surprised if Pedro struggles against the Cubs until he can figure out Lester and others not named Jackson.

Next: El Toro vs the dreaded RedBirds

Apr 25, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) is called out on strikes with the bases loaded by umpire Will Little (93) during the eighth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. St. Louis defeated Pittsburgh 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Pedro’s performance against the St. Louis Cardinals looks like this:

NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Lance Lynn4741930210511.220.298.439.737
Adam Wainwright4642101028416.238.304.405.709
Carlos Martinez14142002404.143.143.571.714
Trevor Rosenthal12102000023.200.333.200.533
Michael Wacha12101001124.100.250.400.650
Carlos Villanueva11103200012.300.364.500.864
Kevin Siegrist10103000302.300.300.300.600
Matt Belisle964000031.667.778.6671.444
Randy Choate992000202.222.222.222.444
John Lackey664002200.667.6671.6672.333
Seth Maness3110000201.0001.0001.0002.000
Total17915941609301945.258.335.465.801

Overall, we can see a lot to like here.  Although his slashlines aginast Adam Wainright, Lance Lynn, and others aren’t overly impressive, they are very Pedro-like, and are a welcome tradeoff for his RBI totals.  For Pedro to make strides against the Cardinals this year, he would do well to lower his strikeout rate against Wainright, which comes in at a gaudy 38.1%.  Also of note is that Alvarez will see a lot more of John Lackey this year.  In a VERY small sample size, we can see that El Toro has taken Lackey yard twice for solo shots.  If my prediction that Pedro bats fourth comes to fruition, the chances for more damage could be there in spades.

Overall, I truly believe that as Pedro goes, so goes the Pirates.  He must avoid prolonged slumps and get back to his 2013 form for this team to truly succeed.  Yes, they did it last year without him, but as Andrew McCutchen and others have said, there is still work to do.  For this team to take the NL Central crown, Alvarez must do well against in-division pitching.

And thus ends my look at how Pedro Alvarez fares against the pitchers he will be seeing the most.  Stay tuned as we will perform this same exercise for more of the Pirates hitters.

Next: Pedro Alvarez deserves a chance at cleanup

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