The Pittsburgh Pirates look to wrap up Unfinished Business

Sep 19, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Mark Melanccon (35) reacts after securing the final out against the Milwaukee Brewers during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates went 10-16 in March/April 2014 and it cost them the division, hands down.  While there are some that subscribe to the “early season losses don’t hurt as much” way of thinking, I offer this rebuttal:  The Pirates lost the division by two games to the St. Louis Cardinals.  Even having three of those games back and settling for a 13-13 record would have likely won the division,  or at the very least provided the Pirates a bit more margin of error.

Imagine a world in which the August 18, 2014 Pirates, sitting only three games above .500 were instead six games over and tied with the Cardinals for second in the NL Central.  If that had occurred, the Pirates’ need to depend on Michael Martinez, Jayson Nix, etc. becomes less pronounced, and we would not have had to sweat each and every loss.  Looking a bit deeper, it’s very clear that the reason for the lukewarm start could be placed squarely on the bullpen’s shoulders.  The Pirates blew six games in April, good enough to be tied for the major league lead.  Jason Grilli of course took the lion’s share but Mark Melancon chipped in with two blown saves of his own.  Is it any wonder that Neal Huntington focused on the bullpen by bringing in Radhames Liz and Arquimedes Caminero?

Even a marginally better start for the Pirates could mean big things, but when the team gets away from the comforts of home, that presents another challenge.

Next: Step two: Become Kings of the Road

The Pittsburgh Pirates had a downright lousy record on the road in 2014, compiling a cumulative record of 37-44 away from picturesque PNC Park, conversed to a 51-30 record at home.  Even if the Pirates can find their way to a five-or-six game improvement, it could mean big things for the Bucs.

One of the challenges of any baseball writer is to find data to backup their points.  And, I think I may have just found our smoking gun.  In road games in which only four total runs were scored (i.e. tight games away from PNC), the Pirates were just 9-37, being outscored 191-100 in the process.  The Pirates, bad on the road to begin with, couldn’t get the offensive production needed to pull out the close ones.  If the problem was truly just an offensive one, that may solve itself with the emerging offensive threat that is the 2015 version of the Bucs.  Overall, the Pirates were only 31-29 in one-run games as well.

The final step to tie up loose ends and bring the World Series back to the Burgh lies in our own backyard.

Next: Step three: Beat up on someone other than the Cubs in the NL Central

Aug 27, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) reacts after defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The third step to the Pirates winning it all hinges on one factor:  beat the teams in your division not named the Chicago Cubs.  Below is a look at the Pirates win-loss record against NL Central opponents:

At first glance, it’s hard to make sense of these numbers, as the Pirates actually outscored the Cardinals and the Brewers.  Perhaps this ties into my second point in this article, as the Pirates struggled mightily in Great American Ballpark and Miller field.  There is no getting around this point:  if the Pirates truly feel they can win the division, then they have to actually win more games in the division.  Sometimes, it’s truly as easy as just going out and winning.  If the Pirates can improve these divisional win-loss records, they will take the crown.

Last, we take a look at what you, the readers, had to say.

Next: The winners of our free shirt giveaway have their say

A week ago, we asked our readers to tell us, in their own words, how the Pittsburgh Pirates can tie up their unfinished business.  The response was overwhelming, and we have picked the three best for you to enjoy.  Here, without further ado, are your words:

The 2013 and 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates seasons were truly remarkable and wonderful experiences. To have a winning team again was nothing short of a joy. But after finally getting off the schneid in 2013, 2014’s loss in the wild card game leaves the Pirates wanting more. Entering 2015, they’re in position to truly contend for a world series. The return of Burnett provides a bolster to the already solid starting rotation. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte anchor an outfield that has potential to be best in the league, pending Gregory Polanco‘s continued development.  Neil Walker is coming off a career year and shows no signs of regression, while J-Hay looks to build off of his breakout season in 2014. The Pirates have veteran stars, developing talent, and a solid pitching staff. The big difference this year is that the Pirates no longer have any glaring holes. In 2013, the offense (with the exception of Andrew McCutchen’s MVP campaign) was lackluster, and couldn’t pull out enough wins when the pitching staff faltered. In 2014, the offense picked up, while pitching and defense remained steady, but one key was missing: Attitude. The Pirates enter 2015 knowing they’re a heavyweight. No longer are they nipping at the heels of the best in the NL, they are staring them straight in the face, knowing full well they’re a championship caliber team. The Pirates enter 2015 with unfinished business, but they could end it with nothing left to do but spray each other with champagne.   -Robert Sproul

For the Pirates to handle their business and take it to the next level, what they need most is luck. Look to the projected standings to see how close they are to the Cardinals. Next look to the website run by power ranks and look at cluster luck information from last year. The Pirates were the 27th “luckiest” team while the Cards checked in at 17. Basically last year all the Pirates needed to do was get normal luck like the Cards and they would have had a far superior record as demonstrated by their respective Pythagorean records of 90-71 and 82-80. These records include normal luck. You can say this player needs to do X but the Pirates have amassed so much depth, if one player underperforms others are waiting in the wings. Sure there are potential stars in Marte, Polanco, and Cole, but they don’t need to break out into stars. For the Pirates to take the next step, they basically just need to be as good as last year and not have as much bad luck. A little Cardinal misfortune could not hurt and this is entirely possible with regression, aging players, and a Cardinal rotation littered with injury risk. So in my opinion all these Bucs need is some average luck. It’s not too much to ask. It would be nice for just once to have the Cardinals get unlucky and the luck to bounce the Bucs way. – Seth Rummel

The reason we are talking about the unfinished business of ’14 is due in no small part to the unfinished business at the #4 spot.  The Pirates could push through in ’15 with modest offensive improvement from a consistent Pedro Alvarez at clean-up.  In fact, Alvarez has an opportunity to wipe clean the defensive miscues from last year by simply taking ownership of the clean-up spot in the offense this season.  With a singular focus on reducing the legion of runners left stranded by a struggling rotation of clean-up contenders last season, “El Toro” could lift the team to an NL Central title simply by boosting the platoon clean-up stats to ‘average’.  As David Hill pointed out at the beginning of spring training, Pirates cleanup hitters produced a .225/.305/.393 batting line in ‘14. Their .698 OPS ranked 25th in baseball, batting average 27th, and on base percentage 26th. Yet, despite these dismal numbers, the Pirates were legitimate contenders for the NL Central title.  A marginal improvement in this line could prove to be all that is needed to lift the team from contention to dominance.  Among Pirates hitters, Alvarez is best poised to challenge the revolving door at #4. -Brian Michael Shaw

A huge thank you to all of you for making Rum Bunter such a fun, interactive experience.  One thing we’ve always known is that our readers are simply the best in the business and make writing about our favorite team such an amazing experience.  It’s truly our honor to join you in following the Bucs on their 2015 journey.

Now.  Time to get back to business.

Next: Reds v. Pirates Series Preview