Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates face Cardinals for first time in ’15

For the first time in the 2015 season, the favorites in the NL Central square off as the Pittsburgh Pirates face travel to face the St. Louis Cardinals for a three game slate.

The Cardinals come into play with the best record in MLB at 15-6, going 7-3 in their last 10 games. Busch Stadium seems to agree with them this year, as they are 8-2 in their home park. The Pittsburgh Pirates come in at 12-10 on the year after a disappointing series loss to the upstart Chicago Cubs.

The Pirates come in looking to put a shaky offensive April behind them. For the first month of the season the Pirates rank 12th in the 15-team National League in batting average (.230) while also holding the dubious distinction of striking out at the second-highest rate in the league (23.3%).

Probable Pitching Match-ups (2014 stats):

Friday, 8:10 pm – A.J. Burnett/RHP (0-1, 1.80 ERA) v. Lance Lynn/RHP (1-2, 3.63 ERA)
Saturday, 2:15 pm – Francisco Liriano/LHP (1-1, 2.22 ERA) v. John Lackey/RHP (1-1, 4.21 ERA)
Sunday, 2:15 pm – Vance Worley/RHP (2-2, 4.50 ERA) v. Michael Wacha/RHP (4-0, 2.42 ERA)

Comments on Pitching Match-ups

The Cardinals employ an all-right handed rotation, thus giving the slight edge to the Pirates who will throw Liriano in the second game of the series. Listed below are the career numbers for each Cardinals starter against the Pirates:
Lance Lynn

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP
Neil Walker	41	34	10	3	1	2	8	6	5	.294	.390	.618	1.008	0	1	0	0	1
Pedro Alvarez	38	32	8	3	0	2	9	5	8	.250	.342	.531	.873	0	1	1	0	0
Andrew McCutchen	38	38	6	3	0	0	1	0	14	.158	.158	.237	.395	0	0	0	0	0
Starling Marte	27	20	8	2	1	0	0	2	3	.400	.556	.600	1.156	0	0	0	5	0
Josh Harrison	16	16	7	2	0	1	2	0	2	.438	.438	.750	1.188	0	0	0	0	0
Jordy Mercer	14	12	4	1	0	0	3	2	1	.333	.429	.417	.845	0	0	1	0	0
Gerrit Cole	8	7	2	0	0	0	1	0	3	.286	.286	.286	.571	1	0	0	0	0
Corey Hart	8	8	3	0	0	2	2	0	1	.375	.375	1.125	1.500	0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Lambo	6	6	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
Gregory Polanco	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Stewart	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0	0	0
Total	212	189	52	16	2	7	29	15	43	.275	.341	.492	.833	1	2	2	5	1

Of the three starters the Pirates will face, they have the biggest sample size against Lynn, and that should encourage Pirates fans. Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison have excellent numbers across the board against Lynn. While Marte does not factor into any run production, three of his eight hits against Lynn go for extra bases. The outlier here is McCutchen, who struggles to hit Lynn, striking out 37% of the time against him. In any other year, this would be cause for an alarm, but with McCutchen’s health and early season struggles, these struggles may not be as felt as they would previously.

John Lackey

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	HBP	GDP
Sean Rodriguez	9	7	2	0	0	0	0	1	.286	.286	.286	.571	2	0	0
Chris Stewart	9	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	.286	.375	.429	.804	1	1	0
Francisco Cervelli	6	5	3	0	1	1	0	0	.600	.667	1.200	1.867	0	1	0
Pedro Alvarez	3	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	.667	.667	1.667	2.333	0	0	0
Josh Harrison	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0	0
Corey Hart	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Starling Marte	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Andrew McCutchen	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	.667	.667	.667	1.333	0	0	0
Jordy Mercer	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Neil Walker	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	1
Total	49	42	14	2	2	2	1	6	.333	.378	.524	.902	4	2	1

Lackey provides a good bit less sample size yet the slashlines against him by the current Pirates are very encouraging. Lackey relies on movement with his fastball, including an effective cutter. This could be trouble for the current Pirates, who are not hitting well against cutters this year.

Michael Wacha

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP
Andrew McCutchen	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	3	.222	.300	.222	.522	0
Neil Walker	10	10	2	0	0	1	0	3	.200	.200	.200	.400	0
Pedro Alvarez	9	8	1	0	1	1	1	3	.125	.222	.500	.722	1
Jordy Mercer	6	6	2	1	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.500	.833	0
Starling Marte	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Andrew Lambo	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Total	42	40	7	1	1	2	2	12	.175	.214	.275	.489	1

Wacha is to the Cardinals as Gerrit Cole is to the Pirates. After an up-and-down 2014, Wacha seems to have it together this year, winning all of his starts in April and posting a very healthy 2.42 ERA in the process. The Pirates would do well to take more pitches against Wacha, as he does have a propensity to walk 2 or more batters per start. The Bucs will need all of the extra baserunners they can get, as the splits against Wacha are less than encouraging

Series Prediction

With the Pirates having the clear edge in pitching in two of the three games, I expect the Pirates to win two out of three in St. Louis. For the Cardinals to swing things the other way, it would likely come against the Pirate bullpen, as Burnett and Liriano appear to be locked in right now.

This series will be a great barometer of how the Pirates stack up against their chief rival and should tell us a lot about what to expect for the rest of 2015.

Next: The Pirates April by the numbers

Schedule