Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Chicago to face second place Cubs

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs for the third time in the young 2015 season. The Cubs have won four of the seven meetings thus far against the Pirates. The Pirates are 8-11 away from home, while the Cubs are 10-8 at Wrigley Field, their home ballpark.

The Pirates enter at 17-18 after splitting a four game series in which they lost the last two contests to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies (13-23). They remain in fourth place in the competitive National League Central.

The Cubs enter at 19-15 after sweeping a four game series against the upstart New York Mets (20-15). With the series win, the Cubs gained sole possession of second place in the division.

The Pirates enter winning just four of their last ten games, while the Cubs have won six of their last ten. Both teams are looking for momentum in order to catch the ever-consistent St. Louis Cardinals (24-10).

The Pirates have the third lowest ERA in National League, but are 11^th in the NL runs scored. They are failing to take advantage of their stellar pitching, notably by ace Garrett Cole (5-1, 2.32 ERA) and veteran leader A.J. Burnett (2-1, 1.60 ERA). The Cubs are 8^th in the NL in both categories.

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Probable Pitching Matchups:

Friday, 5/15, 2:20 PM – LHP Jeff Locke (2-2, 4.71 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 4.65 ERA)

Saturday, 5/16, 4:05 PM – RHP Gerrit Cole (5-1, 2.32 ERA) vs. LHP Jon Lester (3-2, 4.10 ERA)

Sunday, 5/17, 2:20 PM – RHP A.J. Burnett (2-1, 1.60 ERA) vs. RHP Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.00 ERA)

Analysis of Pitching Matchups

The Pirates throw out two of their top three pitchers in this series, and with the inconsistency of the team’s pitching recently, they made need Cole and Burnett to deliver great outings. The Cubs will combat the Bucs with two of their top three pitchers in Lester and Arrieta, the latter of whom leads the Chicago staff in ERA. Although the Cubs haven’t had dynamic pitching like the Pirates have for the most part this season, they still have two of the best pitchers in the NL in Lester and Arieta, who are always dangerous to face. let’s take a look at how the Pirates’ position players have fared against the Chicago pitchers they’ll see in this weekend series.

Kyle Hendricks:

Pedro Alvarez – 0/5, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 1 K, .000/.000/.000

Neil Walker – 1/4, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 3 Ks, .250/.250/.650

Jordy Mercer – 1/5, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 0 K, .200/.200/.400

Josh Harrison – 1/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 0 K, .333/.667/1.000

Francisco Cervelli – N/A

Starling Marte – 0/1, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 0 K, .000/.000/.667

Andrew McCutchen – 0/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 2 Ks, .000/.000/.000

Gregory Polanco – 3/6, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 0 K, .500/.667/1.167

Jung Ho Kang – 1/2, 0 HRs, 1 RBIs, 1 BB, 0 K, .500/.500/1.167

Sean Rodriguez – 1/2, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 0 K, .500/2.000/2.500

Corey Hart – N/A

Chris Stewart – 0/4, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 0 K, .000/.000/.000

Steve Lombardozzi – N/A

With Kendricks being in the league for not even a full season yet, the Pirates have only seen the young pitcher twice, with both games being Pirate victories. In just over 10 innings of work, the Pirates have plated ten runs against Kendricks. Look for the Pirates to continue to score efficiently against him as the batters get used to his stuff the third time around.

Jon Lester:

Pedro Alvarez – N/A

Neil Walker – 1/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBI, 0 BBs, 1K, .333/.333/.667

Jordy Mercer – N/A

Josh Harrison – N/A

Francisco Cervelli – 2/9, 0 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 K, .222/.222/.522

Starling Marte – N/A

Andrew McCutchen – 0/2, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .000/.000/.333

Gregory Polanco – N/A

Jung Ho Kang – N/A

Sean Rodriguez – 7/30, 0 HRs, 4 RBIs, 4 BB, 11 Ks, .233/.333/.685

Corey Hart – 2/9, 2 HRs, 2 RBIs, 1 BB, 3 Ks, .222/.889/1.189

Chris Stewart – 3/5, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 K, .600/1.200/1.825

Steve Lombardozzi – N/A

Not a whole lot of the lineup has faced Lester, who spent his first eight seasons in Boston with the Red Sox before being traded to the Oakland Athletics halfway through last season. Look for Cervelli, a former Yankee, to lead the charge against a streaking Lester, who has won his last three starts, giving up only four earned runs in that span. Chris Stewart and Corey Hart have put up favorable power numbers against Lester as well.

Jake Arrieta:

Pedro Alvarez – 1/11, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .091/.364/.455

Neil Walker – 2/15, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 0 BBs, 4 Ks, .133/.200/.333

Jordy Mercer – N/A

Josh Harrison – 0/6, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .000/.000/.000

Francisco Cervelli – 0/4 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .000/.000/.000

Starling Marte – 2/5, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .400/.400/.900

Andrew McCutchen – 6/14 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 Ks, .429/.571/1.038

Gregory Polanco – 1/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .333/.333/.667

Jung Ho Kang – 0/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .000/.000/.000

Sean Rodriguez – N/A

Corey Hart – N/A

Chris Stewart – N/A

Steve Lombardozzi – 1/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 1 BB, 0 Ks, .333/.333/.933

While some of the younger Pirates’ players have had success against Arrieta, they have done it in five or less at bats (i.e. Marte, Polanco, Lombardozzi). Thus, this isn’t a substantial sample size to take away much from. The story here is the success of center fielder Andrew McCutchen against Arrieta. If there was ever a time that Cutch needed to face a pitcher he has handled incredibly well in the past, it would be now. Facing Arrieta may be just what the doctor ordered for the Pirates’ superstar outfielder, who has struggled out of the gates and battled injury all season.

Series Prediction:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have to know that if they flirt around the .500 line, the Cardinals will bury them by July. The Cubs are playing good baseball as of late, sweeping a four game set with the Mets coming into the weekend. That being said, the Pirates will continue to ride Garrett Cole and A.J. Burnett’s fantastic starts to a 2-1 series win to get the Pirates rolling and back playing .500 ball.

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Schedule