Vance Worley: a hard look at a steep decline

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Feb 19, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle (13) talks with pitcher Vance Worley (46) before Thursdays workout at Pirate City. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Vance Worley has officially lost his spot as a starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Numerous outlets have reported it, but many attribute the original report to Travis Sawchik of the Tribune Review, as seen below.

Vance Worley in the bullpen for now, Clint Hurdle says. Morton likely to take his rotation spot
— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) May 17, 2015

While it’s true that Worley’s early 2015 performance leaves a lot to be desired, the difference between this year’s bespectacled one and last year’s model is startling. Consider this: Worley has walked 14 batters thus far in seven starts. In 17 starts (18 games) in 2014, he walked 22. After considering Worley’s 4.38 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP, I’ll take a pass on showing some of his other peripherals.

The Jeff Locke debate in the offseason was easily one of the hottest topics in the Pirates offseason. All fans had to choose a side, and the contentious debate provided an incredible amount of hot takes. That now seems like a distant memory, as both pitchers have struggled mightily. Now Pirates fans look to Charlie Morton as a potential savior for the back end of the rotation.

But before that happens, let’s take a look at just what factors have reduced Worley’s effectiveness in 2015.

Next: A look at Worley's two-seam fastball

Apr 27, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Cervelli (29) and Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Worley (46) meet at the mound during the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

It has been well documented that the Pittsburgh Pirates rely heavily on the two-seam fastball to produce the ground-outs that opposing teams hit perfectly into their shifts. It should come as no surprise that in 2014 Worley threw the two-seamer at 40.2% clip. Despite throwing it more frequently (49.2%), the effectiveness of that pitch has dropped off of a cliff in 2015.

Last year, Worley’s two-seamers found the strike zone 23.2% of the time. In 2015, the pitch reaches the zone at a 14.6% clip. The drop is startling, even while considering that the point of a two seam fastball is not always to end in a called strike but rather to induce bad contact. The pitch relied upon to induce ground balls is not doing that either, with Worley’s GB% dropping from 55.30% to 43.50%. For a pitcher such as Worley who does not have the classic fastball out-pitch, this has been absolutely deadly.

Next, let’s look at Worley’s struggles when the Bucs don’t give him runs to work with.

Next: Worley clearly needs a cushion

Sep 21, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Worley (46) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Below are Worley’s pitching splits in terms of run support between 2014 and 2015.

2014

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
0-2 Runs Scored	4	106	98	4	18	3	0	1	3	23	7.67	.184	.214	.245	.458
3-5 Runs Scored	10	265	245	29	72	11	2	7	14	44	3.14	.294	.335	.441	.775
6+ Runs Scored	3	77	70	8	18	2	0	0	5	11	2.20	.257	.303	.286	.588

2015

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
0-2 Runs Scored	4	97	90	14	28	8	2	5	12	2.40	.311	.347	.467	.814
3-5 Runs Scored	1	25	23	1	6	2	0	2	5	2.50	.261	.320	.348	.668
6+ Runs Scored	2	52	44	7	15	6	0	7	6	0.86	.341	.423	.477	.900

Vance is a drastically different pitcher without run support in 2015. This is perhaps the hardest metric to measure for Worley’s struggles, as the mental aspect cannot be easily quantified. Yet the drop in peripherals cannot be ignored. The change in strikeout-to-walk ratio alone can pretty much tell our story. Looking at these numbers, it’s easy to wonder out loud what Worley might have been able to do with a better offense to support him, as the Pirates bats have started to awaken. Alas, Worley may not get the chance to show us again this year.

There is another culprit to blame for Worley’s 2015 decline.

Next: The slider is equally to blame

May 3, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Worley (46) throws the ball against hte St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Vance Worley’s slider has taken a huge step back in 2015. Batters hit it much more productively this year than in 2014, despite the slider finding the zone much less.

Year	.AVG	.SLG	Zone %
2014	0.289	0.478	45.4%
2015	0.372	0.581	32.8%

Not only is Worley’s primary out-pitch not working, but his secondary go-to in the slider is also struggling. While batters hit it pretty well in 2014, they are absolutely crushing it this year. A borderline back-end starter such as Worley cannot afford to have any one pitch be hit this hard. Batters will sit and wait for it, limiting the effectiveness of his other pitches, thus creating a vicious cycle that Vance possibly cannot get out of.

So where does Vance Worley fit in from here. Well, if his two-seam can play well again, a bullpen role might suit him. A return to his low-walk rate form of 2014 makes him ideal. Despite his struggles, Worley still does not give up the longball, having only given up two on the year. Where Worley gets into trouble, however, is that he has no other pitch to fall back on. While he does throw his share of four-seam fastballs and changeups, the answer does NOT lie in his breaking stuff. Of the pitches identified as a curveball by FanGraphs, Vance has a 0.00 Swinging Strike %. It’s not fooling anybody.

The good news is this: with a stint in the bullpen, Worley may be able to get a fresh outlook on things and work on that which has plagued him this year.

Until we see him in a starter’s role again, the jury remains out on if his 2014 success was truly a fluke year.

Next: Jose Tabata gets another chance

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