Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates look to rebound vs. Atlanta Braves

The Pittsburgh Pirates (40-32) have lost five out of their last six games after getting swept in glorious fashion by the Washington Nationals and then losing two out of three to the division rival Cincinnati Reds. This came after winning eight in a row against sub-par competition. Now, the team stays at home to battle the Atlanta Braves (35-38), a team that can’t decide whether it should fully rebuild or not, and one that also knows what it feels like to get swept by the team in the nation’s capital, having just accomplished that feat coming into today’s game.

While the Pirates’ pitching staff has regressed some, it still has been dominant for the majority of the season. Heading into Monday’s action, the Pirates rank second in the National League in ERA at 2.97, tied for second in quality starts with 46, and sit in the top five in batting average against, strikeouts, and saves. The Braves’ pitching staff has been mediocre this year, ranking ninth in the NL in ERA at 4.02 and tied for ninth in quality starts with 37 while giving up the third most walks and throwing the third fewest strikeouts.

The Pirate offense, which did improve slightly against the Reds, continues to under perform this season. After scoring three total runs against the Nationals, the team scored 13 against the Reds, with seven of those coming in one inning in game one. The Pirates rank 11th in runs in the NL, 12th in total bases, ninth in average at .253, 10th in OBP at .312, and third to last in home runs. The Braves have a mediocre offense to compliment their pitching staff. Atlanta only managed two total runs against the Nationals in their last series, and rank seventh in the NL in runs scored, third to last in total bases, sixth in average at .257, and sixth in OBP at .320.

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Andrelton Simmons is having another good year for the Braves, batting .274 and putting up a 2.3 WAR, thanks to his great defense play at shortstop. First baseman Freddie Freeman is playing well as well, batting .299 with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs this year. Shelby Miller has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball for the Braves, posting a 1.94 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Fortunately for the Pirates, they won’t have to worry about Miller this series.

Let’s take a look at the pitching match-ups for the two teams:

Friday, June 26th, 7:05 PM – LHP Francisco Liriano (4-6, 3.26 ERA) vs. RHP Williams Perez (4-0, 2.78 ERA)

Saturday, June 27th, 4:05 PM – RHP Charlie Morton (5-1, 3.97 ERA) vs. RHP Julio Teheran (5-3, 4.67 ERA)

Sunday, June 28th, 1:35 PM – LHP Jeff Locke (4-3, 4.73 ERA) vs. LHP Alex Wood (4-5, 3.44 ERA)

Pitching Match-up Analysis:

The Pirates don’t have Gerrit Cole or A.J. Burnett going this series, so the pitching match-ups seem pretty even. The first game will be intriguing to watch. Perez has allowed no runs in two out of his last three starts, but when the Pirates last faced him earlier this season, the team chased him after five innings while putting up four runs. In game two, Pirate fans will look to see which Charlie Morton will take the mound: the one that dominated in his first five starts of the year, or the one that got tattooed for nine runs in less than an inning of work in the worst start for a Pirate pitcher in recent memory. Julio Teheran is having an off year after pitching like an ace in 2013 and 2014, and he’s on pace to throw a career high number of walks. In game three, the Braves have the clear edge, as the inconsistent Locke takes the mound for what may be one of his last starts as a Pirate.

Let’s take a look at how Pirate batters have fared against these Braves’ starting pitchers:

Williams Perez

This is Perez’s first season in the major leagues, and he’s only faced the Pirates one previous time. In that game earlier this month on June 5th, Francisco Cervelli had two hits and an RBI, Neil Walker had a three-run home run, and Perez walked five batters.

Julio Teheran

Pirate batters haven’t had a significant number of at-bats against Teheran, but in those at-bats, Andrew McCutchen stands out positively with a .417 average and two home runs, while Neil Walker doesn’t have a hit in nine at-bats against him.

Alex Wood

The Pirates hit Alex Wood pretty well, with six players holding at least a .250 average against him. Then again, they also haven’t seen much of Wood in their careers, so it will be interesting to see what the Pittsburgh batters do against the 24-year-old.

Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t played well offensively as of late, and they can’t keep playing this poorly with the bottom of their rotation pitching in this series. Until their offense proves that it can hit to the level that it should, there’s no reason to pick them in this series. I expect the Braves to take two out of three this weekend.

Next: Pittsburgh Pirates series takeaways vs. Cincinnati Reds