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The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-34) welcome the San Diego Padres (39-45) to PNC Park for a three-game set beginning tonight. With the biggest series of the Pirates season looming after the Padres leave town, the team will first have to deal with a San Diego team that has been a thorn in the Pirates’ side in recent years. This includes a 14-9 record against the Pirates over the past three years, including a 2-2 split this year and a 2-1 Padres series win at PNC in 2014.
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The Pirates offense comes in having done just enough to take two out of three against the Cleveland Indians. The Pirates and their fans are currently holding their breath for an encouraging update on the health of Starling Marte, who left the game on Sunday with left-side discomfort. If he is out, the Pirates offense will take a huge hit.
The Padres come in with a 4-6 record in their last ten games while continuing to fade into the background behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in the National League West.
Let’s take a look at the pitching match-ups for the two teams:
Monday, July 6, 7:05 PM – RHP James Shields (7-3, 4.14 ERA) vs. RHP A.J. Burnett (7-3, 2.05 ERA)
Tuesday, July 7, 7:05 PM – RHP Tyson Ross (5-7, 3.63 ERA) vs. LHP Francisco Liriano (5-6, 2.99 ERA)
Wednesday, July 8, 7:05 PM – RHP Andrew Cashner (3-9, 4.06 ERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (6-2, 4.30 ERA)
Pitching Match-up Analysis:
Fans won’t have to wait for a marquee pitching matchup in this one, as James Shields will face off against A.J. Burnett in the first game of the series. Shields owns seven wins as Burnett also does, but with a much uglier 4.14 ERA. Over his last five starts Shields is winless with a 5.59 ERA. The Padres have lost each of those starts. Burnett carries a much nicer 1.77 ERA in that same timeframe.
Liriano did very solid work in June aside from a hiccup against the Washington Nationals. He has gone at least seven innings in four of his last five outings. For his part, Morton is still looking to completely shake off the effects of being tagged for nine runs in 0.2 IP against the Nationals. After only allowing three earned runs once in his five starts previous to that game, he has since allowed three or more in each start.
Let’s take a look at how Pirate batters have fared against these Padres starting pitchers:
James Shields
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Stewart | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .167 | .286 | .167 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .250 | .500 | .500 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .667 | .667 |
| Jung Ho Kang | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 |
| Steve Lombardozzi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Starling Marte | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .333 | .000 |
| Jordy Mercer | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Gregory Polanco | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Neil Walker | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Total | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | .171 | .261 | .195 |
Tyson Ross
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .125 | .222 | .125 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .286 | .444 | .714 |
| Jordy Mercer | 9 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .625 | .667 | .625 |
| Neil Walker | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .250 | .333 | .625 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .714 |
| Josh Harrison | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 |
| Charlie Morton | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Gregory Polanco | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | 1.167 |
| Chris Stewart | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 |
| Steve Lombardozzi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Total | 78 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15 | .246 | .333 | .449 |
Andrew Cashner
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .286 | .286 | .714 |
| Neil Walker | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| Josh Harrison | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Steve Lombardozzi | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .667 | .667 |
| Jordy Mercer | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 |
| Chris Stewart | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .667 | .667 |
| Total | 39 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | .270 | .289 | .378 |
Hitter to avoid
For a team that added considerable name-brand value to their offense in the offseason, the Padres offense is lacking. Thus the only hitter Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers have to take extra care with is Justin Upton. Upton is far and away the team leader in many categories. He is strikeout-prone with a 30% strikeout rate on the year. If the Pirates can limit his chances, the strikeout ability of Burnett and Liriano can keep him in check. Here is a look at Upton’s career numbers vs the Pirates starters:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | 18 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | .500 | .556 | 1.000 |
| Francisco Liriano | 12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .100 | .250 | .400 |
| Charlie Morton | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .200 | .333 | .200 |
| Total | 86 | 75 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 18 | .360 | .442 | .600 |
Prediction
This series could be considered a microcosm of the Pirates season as a whole. There is some potential for an offensive breakout, but the starting pitching will carry the day. The matchups are so slanted in favor of the Pirates that I feel comfortable predicting a sweep for the Pirates as a final tuneup for their epic showdown against the Cardinals.