Pittsburgh Pirates Top Five First-Half Statistical Storylines

Jul 6, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (left, center) is mobbed by right fielder Gregory Polanco (25), second baseman Neil Walker (18) and shortstop Jordy Mercer (10) after Alvarez hit a game winning RBI single against the San Diego Padres during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates have really found their strides at the halfway point. Through 82 games, the club has the second best record in all of baseball – albeit still while chasing the St. Louis Cardinals. The Pirates have done this in a myriad of ways. At times they look like an offensive powerhouse; other times they struggle to put runs on the board while relying on good pitching.

More than anything, baseball is a game of numbers and statistics. It is unique in that regard. Pop quiz – can you tell me who rushed for the most yards in a single season in football? Can you tell me the single season record for goals scored in hockey? Probably not. But if I asked any sports fan worth his or her salt who the last baseball player to hit .400 was, chances are good they would know. If I asked them for the longest hitting streak ever, I’m willing to bet that at least half would know the answer to be 56. A more recent example would be the Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds chase of the late 90s/early 2000s. Casual baseball fans would know that the number 61 was a hallowed one until the PED-infused game of the time rendered it moot.

There are some eye-popping statistics among these 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates. In this piece, I will highlight what I believe to be the Top Five statistical story lines of the first half. These will not be ‘leaderboard’ type numbers, but rather a mix of stats on both the player and team level that tell the story of the Bucs so far.

Let’s get started with some surprises in the run-producing department.

Next: Surprising Run Producers

Jul 2, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Starling Marte (6) hits a single in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates went into 2015 with a bevy of run producers, and optimism was high. After a career year from Neil Walker buoyed by breakout years from Josh Harrison and Starling Marte, fans had every reason to feel great about the team’s offense.

As we stand today, the Pirates’ leading run producer by most metrics would be Marte, who leads the team in home runs and, until recently, RBI. While everyone was bullish on Marte before the season, few could have expected him to carry the team through the first two months of the season. Well, Bob Walk expected it. In a piece that ran on these pages way back in early February, we quoted the former Pirate-turned-broadcaster and his bullish prediction for Marte.

“Marte will hit 20 home runs, steal 50 bases, and be an all star in 2015.” – Bob Walk

As Marte’s hot start cooled somewhat, Andrew McCutchen got back on track. He is now the team leader in wRC (weighted runs created – a FanGraphs created metric) with a 57 rating. (100 for an entire season is considered “average.”) Still, few could have predicted that Marte would carry the Pirates for a solid two months.

Our next statistical story line is also about a run producer, but deserves its own spotlight

Next: The Curious Case of The Big Bull

Jul 6, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle (left) hugs first baseman Pedro Alvarez (right) after Alvarez hit a game winning RBI single against the San Diego Padres during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pedro Alvarez had a year to forget in 2014. Starting off a new year at a still-new position brought a breath of fresh air around the slugger. Fans wondered aloud how many #ElToroBombs Pedro could hit having been freed of the mental shackles of third base. Fans and writers alike wondered if Alvarez could cut down on the free swings and perhaps approach a .250 batting average, all while getting back to the 36-HR form he showed in 2013.

As the song goes, two out of three ain’t bad.

For 2015, Pedro is hitting a respectable .242. He has cut his strikeout rate down to 25.7%. He has continued to earn free passes, at a 10.7% clip (good enough to lead the Pirates).

But Pedro also did not hit a multi-run HR until July 5th. It’s true – take a look at Alvarez’s 2015 home run log:

It’s extremely curious, and believe me, it is not all Alvarez’s fault. With runners on base, Alvarez actually is performing quite well. The chart below shows Pedro’s performance with runners in scoring position (RISP), with men on base, or with the bases empty.

Perhaps we can assume that this is more a reflection on how pitchers approach The Big Bull rather than on Pedro’s approach. While the home run totals overall are down from his 2013 pace, some fans may be willing to sacrifice 6-8 cannonballs for a more disciplined Alvarez. Especially if he can keep doing things like this:

We move on in our statistical storytelling with everyone’s favorite story of the year.

Next: Masterful mound performances

Jul 6, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher A.J. Burnett (34) reacts in the dugout after being removed from the game against the San Diego Padres during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Much has been said about the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff – both the rotation and the bullpen. I won’t spend too much time going over the details again, but we can all agree that no one saw this level of dominance coming. Sure, we all expected Gerrit Cole to take the leap. We all knew that A.J. Burnett was not healthy last year, thus having something left in the tank to give the team. While there were question marks around Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Locke, none of us would have expected this level of greatness (Liriano) or competency (Morton and Locke).

Overall the Pirates rank second in the major leagues with a 2.88 team ERA – again chasing the Cardinals. The starting rotation’s ERA stands at 3.06 – good for third in all of baseball. Imagine what that number might be without true duds from Morton, Locke, and Vance Worley. Ray Searage and Jim Benedict probably have the best job security in all of baseball.

With an up-and-down offense, the Pirates pitching will carry them the rest of the way. With the trade deadline about three weeks away, the team’s biggest strength may get even stronger.

The entirety of the Pirates’s organizational approach may be personified by the player in our next storyline.

Next: That's amore indeed

Jun 28, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pinch hitter Neil Walker (18) hits a double against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Braves won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off of a career year in 2014, expectations were high for Neil Walker. The weight of those expectations made Walker’s April look worse than it actually was. Walker slashed .288/.333/.425 during the early days of the season but only came out with a lone HR and nine RBI to show for it. Walker scuffled around in May and June before catching fire lately in July. As he stands today, Walker will have to go on quite the tear to replicate his 2014 numbers, causing many Pirates fans to have a rather lukewarm feeling towards ‘The Pittsburgh Kid.’ While overall batting very similar to his ’14 numbers, the lack of HR (6) and RBI (32) are nothing to get excited about.

Contentious contract talks swirling about Walker are nothing new, but with a down year, fans are left wondering if Walker – with injury history – should still be extended. Perhaps Walker will return from the all-star break with a refreshed outlook to the rest of the 2015 season.

There you have it. These are our Top Five statistical storylines of the first half of the 2015 season. Got one we overlooked? Let us know in the comments or twitter.

Next: The 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates All Stars