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Pittsburgh Pirates face Cardinals in crucial 3-game set

By Jason Rollison

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Jeff Locke gives Pirates fans a great deal of trepidation with each of his starts. Going into the All-Star break, Locke was slowly putting it together with six consecutive starts with two earned runs or less. Since the break, he’s reverted to more Locke-like performances, with a 5.48 cumulative ERA in his four post-break starts. In his last three starts he has failed to pitch more than 5.2 innings. Despite a nearly 2-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (17-9), Locke still finds himself victimized by the long ball, giving up three home runs in his last three starts, for a 1.17 HR/9. It’s not fluky either, as his last four opponents have had a .277 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

The good news is this – the Cardinals struggle against left-handed pitching as you can see below.

Split PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP 3053 2745 325 716 156 15 66 311 231 579 .261 .324 .401 .724
vs LHP 1175 1043 115 244 43 6 25 113 105 275 .234 .311 .359 .670

A couple of the big hitters in the Cards’ lineup highlight their struggle against southpaws. Matt Carpenter sees his average drop to .240 (.279 against RHP) and his OPS drops considerably, down to .730 against .895. Jhonny Peralta is a curious case as his average drops all the way to .237 from .293 against righties, but his slugging actually improves to .500. His OBP against left-handers drops as well, so his OPS ends up about even. Pirate killer Kolten Wong enjoys an average of .227 and a dismal on base percentage of .287. His power leaves against left-handers as well, with only one of his 11 home runs coming off of them.

Here are Locke’s complete numbers against current Cards:

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Jason Heyward 18 16 5 1 0 0 2 2 2 .313 .389 .375 .764
Matt Carpenter 15 11 2 0 0 0 3 2 2 .182 .333 .182 .515
Yadier Molina 14 12 3 1 0 0 2 2 1 .250 .357 .333 .690
Jhonny Peralta 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 .000 .077 .000 .077
Mark Reynolds 13 12 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 .083 .154 .167 .321
Peter Bourjos 9 7 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 .429 .556 .429 .984
Randal Grichuk 8 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 .375 .375 .500 .875
Pete Kozma 7 6 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 .333 .429 .333 .762
Tony Cruz 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Brandon Moss 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Kolten Wong 3 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 .333 .333 1.333 1.667
Total 112 98 20 4 0 1 12 10 16 .204 .288 .276 .564

Over in the other dugout, Carlos Martinez comes in enjoying a fine season with a sparking 2.57 ERA. Martinez got roughed up for five runs in a recent start versus the Colorado Rockies but before that had not allowed more than three runs since all the way back on May 9. If there’s an Achilles’ heel to Martinez’s approach, it’s his walk rate. With a 3.5 BB/9 rating, the Pirates would do well to try to see as many pitches as possible. Perhaps more epic at-bats from the likes of Gregory Polanco are in order.

Here are Martinez’s numbers against current Pirates:

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Andrew McCutchen 16 13 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 .308 .438 .692 1.130
Pedro Alvarez 13 11 1 0 0 1 2 2 4 .091 .231 .364 .594
Neil Walker 13 13 4 0 1 2 4 0 3 .308 .308 .923 1.231
Gregory Polanco 10 7 5 2 0 0 1 3 1 .714 .800 1.000 1.800
Aramis Ramirez 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400
Starling Marte 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 .000 .222 .000 .222
Francisco Cervelli 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .200 .333 .200 .533
Jung Ho Kang 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .400 .500 .400 .900
Sean Rodriguez 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 .333 .500 .333 .833
Travis Ishikawa 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000
Mike Morse 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Chris Stewart 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Total 91 77 22 5 1 4 9 11 21 .286 .389 .532 .921

Next, we’ll move on to the marquee matchup of the series.

Next: Game two - Cole vs Wacha

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