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Pittsburgh Pirates base running: Narrative vs. Numbers

By Steve Kubitz |
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Jul 11, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; General view of the ballpark exterior before the Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost the first two games of the “biggest series of the season” against the Cardinals and of course there’s a lot of panic, because as sports fans, it’s really easy to be reactionary. The facts are these, the Pirates are now seven games out of first place in the NL Central and that is really frustrating and upsetting. No one can deny that at all, but the one thing to be weary of is letting a narrative get in the way of facts.

The Pirates played a very sloppy game last night and as a result, I’ve seen a lot of sweeping generalizations about the Pirates and how they will do come October. The most specific thing I’ve seen mentioned is the Pirates are a poor base-running team, they make a lot of mistakes on the bases and that will cost them come the playoffs. The Pirates definitely do some head-scratching things on the bases, but are they really a bad base-running team? I decided the only way to determine this is to look up good old fashioned raw numbers. While stats are not the be all, end all, it’s still a good place to start to see where the Pirates rank in comparison to the rest of the league.

The stat I am going to use today is BsR, which is the base running component of Wins Above Replacement. (WAR) Before I dive into the Pirates BsR, I will explain what the hell it means. BsR is calculated similarly to WAR in that league average is set to zero for ease of use. Different numbers represent different levels of skill. Eight (8) BsR is considered excellent, six (6) is great, two (2) is above average, zero (0) is of course average, negative two (-2) is below average, negative four (-4) is poor and negative six (-6) is considered awful.

In determining where the Pirates rank, I will essentially average out the Pirates rankings by position. Outfield, first base, second base, short stop, third base, and catcher. I will only include starters or regular back-ups. I will not include pitchers as they’re almost all ranked zero because of inconclusive data. Lets hit the ground running and see how the Pirates fair as base-runners.

Next: The Outfield of Dreams

Jul 31, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marffte (6) is congratulated by center fielder Andrew McCutcffhen (22) and right fielder Gregory Polaffnco (25) after the Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield:

The first thing to look at is that Andrew McCutchen in 2015 is basically an almost league average base-runner, which isn’t surprising given the decrease in his stolen base numbers.

Starling Marte has been a below averge base-runner, which isn’t all that surprising with how often he’s over slid bags and broke from second for third on a ground ball to the short stop.

The biggest surprise is how solid of a base-runner Gregory Polanco has been in 2015. Polanco can look clumsy at times, but he’s easily the best base-runner among all the Pirates outfielders.

Take Polanco’s good base running, couple it with McCutchen’s average and Marte’s below average and you have an outfield that is mostly above average as base-runners.

The outfield of dreams scores out as an above average base-running group, but what about the slower portion of the Pirates team?

Next: First Base

Aug 9, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pinch hitter Pedro Alvffarez (24) reacts in the dugout after scoring a run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

First Base:

Pedro Alvarez is not the fastest player on the Pirates by any means, but is often referred to as the smartest base-runner on the team and the numbers seem to back that up as Pedro is an above average base-runner.

Sean Rodriguez isn’t the most popular Pirates player right now and while advance metrics show his defensive value, they are not very kind to his base-running as he is a below average base-runner.

First base isn’t usually a position known for its speed, nor is it particularly valued, but it’s good to see that Pedro is a mostly solid base-runner. He will never steal 20 bases in a season, but he will likely win a game with a smart base-running play at some point in his career. Sean Rodriguez is a below average offensive player in 2015 and the base-running lines up with that, but as we know he isn’t on the team for his offense.

El Toro has struck well on the base-paths, but is he the Real Deal?

Next: Second Base

Aug 8, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Wffalker (18) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Second Base:

Second base has been manned by Neil Walker for basically the entire season and while Neil is often criticized for his lack of defensive range and slow base-running he’s actually been a surprisingly efficient base-runner in 2015. His numbers show that despite his speed, he’s been above average at running the bases.

The Pittsburgh Kid has been a solid base-runner for most of the season. How does Korean Jesus compare?

Next: Third Base

Aug 9, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Jung Ho Kaffng (27) rounds the bases after hitting a three run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning at PNC Park. The Pirates wfon 13-6. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Third Base:

Third base might be the biggest surprise on this list, at least for me as Jung-ho Kang has been a very good base-runner in his rookie season. He has been well above average, despite not possessing the greatest speed.

Josh Harrison has missed a big chunk of time with a thumb injury, but before that he was also an above average base-runner in 2015. This, despite not even having to escape a run down this season.

I opted to not include Aramis Ramirez on this list since he’s only played 16 games as the Pirates third baseman. If I am not going to include Brent Morel for his eight games as a Pirate, I don’t think it’s unfair to not include A-Ram.

Jung-ho Kang’s stellar base-running really raises the Pirates infield base-running as he’s on this list at more than one position.

Next: Short Stop

Jun 30, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Jordy Mefrcer (10) celebrate after the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Pittsburgh won 5-4 in 14 innings. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Short Stop:

  • Jung-ho Kang: 3.5 BsR
  • Jordy Mercer: 0.7 BsR
    • 2.1 BsR (above average)

Short Stop is a bit misleading, given that Jung-ho Kang’s steller base-running is included again on this list, but even removing him, you’re left with Jordy Mercer‘s 0.7 BsR, which is a bit better than league average. Nothing incredible, but Mercer hasn’t hurt the Pirates on the base paths, which I think is the minimum requirement for a Big League ballplayer.

Short Stop is a position that requires a quick first step and a lot of range, so maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise Mercer and Kang have both been solid base-runners. Our last position isn’t really known for its speed.

Next: Catcher

Aug 9, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Francisfco Cervelli (29) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 13-6. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Catcher:

Another big surprise on this list is Francisco Cervelli being a below average base-runner. He hasn’t really had any major gaffs on the bases, but he is a catcher and that is a position not really known for its speed.

Chris Stewart being a league average base-runner may be the biggest shocker for me as his reputation is that of a typical slow-footed catcher, however similar to Jordy Mercer, he hasn’t hurt the Pirates with his base-running, but he also hasn’t really helped them either.

Now that we have looked at all the positions, lets see how the Pirates stack up as a team.

Next: Pittsburgh Pirates team base-running

Jul 24, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starlfing Marte (6) celebrates with teammates after defeating the Washington Nationals at PNC Park. The Pirates won 7-5. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates Totals:

  • Outfield: 1.1 BsR
  • Outfield: 1.1 BsR
  • First Base: -0.1 BsR
  • Second Base: 2.3 BsR
  • Third Base: 2.6 BsR
  • Short Stop: 2.1 BsR
  • Catcher: -0.7 BsR
    • 1.21 BsR (Slightly above league average)

As a team, the Pirates total BsR is 1.21, which is a bit above the league average of zero. This is mostly skewed up because of Polanco’s incredible base-running and Neil Walker’s surprisingly decent base-running.

However, this basically shows that despite some of the head-scratching moments the Pirates have had this season, they are still on-par with the rest of the league. They are not as awful as they appear sometimes, but as a team haven’t gone beyond and won a game with their base-running either much either.

Because the bad moments tend to stick with you more, it’s really easy to think of the Pirates as an awful base-running team, which has kind of been their reputation this season, but the data doesn’t really back that up. The Pirates aren’t a great base-running team, but they are not awful either. It’s important to not let narrative get in the way of raw numbers and while stats obviously aren’t everything, they are a good place to start. The Pirates may not pass the traditional eye test, but the numbers do not lie. Baseball is still a numbers game at its core, otherwise why would they keep track of something like BsR?

Next: Pittsburgh Pirates Wake-Up Call - the Pirates are beating themselves

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