Preview: Pirates open four game set with Giants

As September approaches, the Pittsburgh Pirates keep on rolling. Winners of 10 of their last 13 while still just five games back of the St. Louis Cardinals, the Bucs are set to welcome the defending World Series champs into town in the San Francisco Giants. This same Giants team sent the Pirates packing last October in the National League Wild Card game, winning 8-0 in PNC Park.

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The Pirates (71-47) head into the four game set with San Francisco on a high note, with the team rallying around the offense, which has scored 70 runs in the past ten Pirate victories. The Pirates now rank fourth in the NL with 505 runs and a .260 batting average.

The pitching staff, on the other hand, has seen some issues. Though J.A. Happ‘s last two outings were impressive, the injuries he is trying to replace have been hard to deal with, while the offense has gone on fine without utility man Josh Harrison and short stop Jordy Mercer. The staff has been only the ninth best in terms of team ERA since the all-star break at 4.17, but light is at the end of the tunnel. In August, the team sits in third with a 3.21 ERA.

If the team with the fourth most runs in the NL and the second best ERA in all of baseball (3.19) can match them up at the same time, this team could be beyond lethal.

The Giants (65-55) also come in playing well, winning five of their last seven. They are one of the teams chasing the Pirates for a position in the wild-card game, but have a better chance of tracking down the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Giants trail the Chicago Cubs by three games for the last wild-card spot, while they trail the Dodgers for the division by only two games. The Giants are also lead by a potent offense, which ranks just one spot ahead of the Bucs, in third with 522 runs this season. This is led by their star catcher, Buster Posey. Posey is batting .345 since the all-star break. Shortstop Brandon Crawford has also been huge for the Giants, mashing seven home runs in the past 30 games for the Giants.

Now let’s look at the pitching matchups for the upcoming series with the Giants:

Thursday, 8/20, 7:05 PM- RHP Charlie Morton (7-4, 4.36 ERA) vs. RHP Jake Peavy (3-5, 4.18 ERA)

Friday, 8/21, 7:05 PM- LHP Jeff Locke (6-7, 4.31 ERA) vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner (14-6, 2.98 ERA)

Saturday, 8/22, 4:35 PM- RHP Gerrit Cole (14-7, 2.61 ERA) vs. RHP Chris Heston (11-7, 3.34 ERA)

Sunday, 8/23, 8:00 PM- LHP Francisco Liriano (8-6, 3.35 ERA) vs. RHP Mike Leake (9-6, 3.52 ERA)

Analysis of pitching matchups

Am I the only one that was really hoping we’d see Bumgarner and Cole go at it on Friday or Saturday night? After the dandy of a game we saw with Cole against Kershaw, it would be pretty buzzworthy. But instead, both ace’s are matched up with oppoenents they should be heavily favored against. It seems like Jeff Locke always has to go out and face the best starter for the other team when he pitches. He just saw Max Scherzer a while back, and now he gets Bumgarner, the man most responsible for ending the Pirates season last year. Overall, the matchups look pretty competitive all the way down, making the series look even more appealing than at first glance.

Now let’s look to see how the lineup of the Pirates has performed against the expected starting pitching of the Giants: 

Jake Peavy

For as long as Peavy has been in the league, his tenure with the Red Sox and White Sox from 2010-2014 kept him from seeing the majority of the current Pirates batters. He was out the last time these two clubs met, so expect Peavy to fool some of the younger guys the first few times through the lineup.

Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner has been scary good against the Pirates. One look at the numbers shows why he’s a dominant force in the league. Mike Morse, brought in from the Dodgers to face left handed pitching at first, has taken Bumgarner deep.

Chris Heston

Heston is a young pitcher, but he’s proven he’s a talented one. Fortunately, the Pirates have talented hitters, especially in superstar center fielder Andrew McCutchen, who has gotten a hit in all three plate appearances against Heston, including a triple. In the second time around, look for the Pirates to loosen up and be aggressive towards Heston.

Mike Leake

Leake, who just a few short weeks ago was a Cincinnati Red, has seen plenty of these Pirates. He’s also done quite well, keeping them to a lower average and only six home runs in hundreds of at bats. The current Pirates have never hit a triple off of Leake, who has dominated speedsters Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, who have gone a combined 9 of 47 (.191) with two walks drawn by Polanco. Yikes.

Hitter to avoid- Buster Posey

Aside from being a superstar in his own right, Posey has hit the heck out of Pirate pitchers, owning a .423 average. He has absolutely dominated newly acquired reliever Joe Blanton (9-17, 1 HR & 5 RBI) and been a consistent force against all of the Pirates staff, all except Gerrit Cole. Cole has shut down Posey, who has gone 0-5 with just a walk against Cole.

If the team with the fourth most runs in the NL and the second best ERA in all of baseball (3.19) can match them up at the same time, this team could be beyond lethal.

Series Prediction

For as silly as the Giants made the Pirates look in the playoffs, the Pirates have actually gotten the better of the Giants in the regular season as of late. The Pirates swept the Giants earlier this season, and Andrew McCutchen is 20-41 with eight extra-base hits in his last nine games against the Giants at PNC Park. With that being said, it’s almost September, and both of these clubs have ample things to play for. This could and should be one of the most entertaining series of the summer for the Bucs and Giants both.

Final Prediction: Pirates split series 2-2, land at 73-49. 

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