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Has Pedro Alvarez truly improved at the plate?

By Jason Rollison |
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September 20, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) runs after he hits a single in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Pedro Alvarez is easily the single most polarizing Pittsburgh Pirate of the past five years.

And it’s not even close.

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We all know how he took on that dubious distinction. With four consecutive seasons of 20+ errors, Alvarez did himself no favors in the field. Thus, any scuffle that he goes through at the plate is magnified tenfold. Each strikeout fans the flames of fan unrest. With Aramis Ramirez taking time away from Alvarez at first base before the Jung Ho Kang injury, we can easily extrapolate that Clint Hurdle‘s opinion on Alvarez is closer to matching up with fan opinion than one would think.

Yet, as it stands today Alvarez leads the team in home runs (25) and is third in RBI (72). These are numbers that cannot and should not be ignored. Yes, Alvarez does make considerable contributions at the plate, and when he does the fans rejoice. One need only look to twitter during day games in which Alvarez hits a home run to observe this in practice.

The staff here at rumbunter even gets into the act:

Bad photoshop aside, ask any Pittsburgh Pirates fan what they would consider to be “improvement” for Alvarez and you’re likely to get a dizzying variety of answers. Some want him to at least replicate his watershed 36 home run 2013 season. Others point to the batting average, arbitrarily arriving at a .250 figure being a sign of “progress.” Most want to see less strikeouts while many want to see his slash line climb against left-handed pitching.

As of today, Pedro’s batting average sits at .246 while his home run total has rebounded after a 2014 to forget.

But has Pedro Alvarez truly improved year-to-year?

Let’s find out by going over what I believe are some key metrics based on what the Pirates expect from Alvarez, starting with the most important. To give us the best snapshot, we will look at year-to-year improvement from 2014 to 2015 and throw in his career number as well.

Next: At-Bats per Home Run

September 20, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) hits a single in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Alvarez exists in the semi-everyday lineup for a singular reason: to serve as a power threat. What better way to judge this by looking at his at-bats per home runs. For those unaware, this is the number of at-bats in between each home run. The smaller the number, the better.

Here’s Alvarez’s year-to-year metric:

[table id=19 /]

After having suffered through a 2014 to forget, I for one was very interested to see how Pedro would respond. With the troubles at third base firmly in his rear-view mirror, Alvarez could focus on his work at the dish while having an entire off-season to learn a new position. As we now know, Alvarez is as bad as ever defensively, just with a different locale.

However, it is encouraging to see Alvarez’s AB per HR drop in this way. Providing a home run on average every 4-5 games, Alvarez still provides that consistent power threat that is his bread-and-butter. Despite some cameos at higher spots in the order, Alvarez does his damage in the mid-to-lower third of the batting order and thus does not let opposing starters or incoming relievers catch a breather.

Of course, for many fans, it’s not how often he hits home runs, but what kind of home runs are hit. Take a look at our next slide to see his numbers with men on base and in scoring position.

Next: The master of Solo HRs

Sep 17, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) rounds the bases after hitting a two run home run against the Chicago Cubs during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest – and most unfounded – frustrations with Alvarez is his perceived inability to hit home runs with Bucs on base. Before we go to the tables, it is beyond imperative that this is understood: Alvarez gets pitched to much differently with men on base.

That is incredibly obvious to be sure, but it is not easily known the degree to which this occurs. I can start and end with one factor: Walk rate. With men on base in 2015, Alvarez’s walk rate more than doubles, with a 15.1% rate against a 6.3% clip with the bases empty. Pitchers are simply not giving Pedro anything to drive, if they offer a hittable pitch at all.

Here are Pedro’s slash lines and strikeout rates w/RISP

[table id=20 /]

The table above shows the very definition of a ‘mixed bag.’ Alvarez’s batting average and on-base numbers are more or less in line with his career figures, and in the case of his .OBP especially so. Key differentiation points show up in his slugging percetnage and strikeout rates. Slugging takes a huge hit – down almost .100 points year to year. With only eight extra base hits with runners in scoring position, Alvarez is either not driving the ball or not getting drive-able offerings. The strikeout rate – while down from his career mark – show a very binary approach. With a high walk rate and a high strikeout rate, Alvarez may be employing an all or nothing approach in this scenario.

Is that a sign of improvement? Conclusions may vary.

Next let’s take away the criteria of a runner in scoring position and take a look at the numbers with a base runner in any capacity:

[table id=21 /]

While a little less scattershot than its RISP counterpart, this look at Pedro’s numbers with men on base remains short on answers. We can point to the average and strikeout rates from 2015 to his career as being eerily similar. We also find that his career mark in on-base percentage is right in the middle of his 2015 and 2014 numbers. With the career and 2015 strikeout rates so similar, I am hesitant to say that he has improved in this regard. We can say that year-to-year Pedro has done a good job of getting on base a bit more, yet again as his high strikeout rate suggests, this increase may be something akin to fool’s gold.

Despite all of this, the numbers at the forefront of everyone’s mind when judging Pedro Alvarez remains his work against left-handed pitching.

Lucky for Pedro, his work against southpaws shows the most improvement.

Next: Pedro vs. The Lefties

Sep 13, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) celebrates the dugout after hitting a solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

2014 was a horrendous year for Pedro Alvarez versus left-handed pitching, as you’ll see below.

[table id=22 /]

This metric shows us the biggest leap by far of any of the ones we have studied today. Pedro’s numbers against LHP are an improvement both year-to-year and against his career across the board, save for a slight increase in strikeout rate from 2014.

As this is the number one concern among Pirate fans and commentators alike, this is very encouraging. However, we must mention the devil that always exists in these types of details: small sample size. Alvarez has a paltry 60 total plate appearances against LHPs in 2015 against 359 versus RHPs. Is that enough to consider his slashlines against left-handers an improvement? With a considerable reduction in strikeout rate vs his career numbers, I would be inclined to say that it would, yet the lack of at-bats cannot be ignored.

The purpose of this study was to look past Pedro Alvarez approaching that arbitrary .250 batting average mark to see if he has truly improved. Before I give you my conclusion, here are a few choice tweets when I reached out to gauge public opinion:

Good stuff here as always from our readers. Yet another reader confirmed my suspicion that no matter what Pedro Alvarez does at the plate, his defense is too bad to ignore for most:

Perhaps that’s true, but to me, Pedro has improved at the plate. We can – and will – debate many different facets of Alvarez’s game, from his defense to the unshakable perception that he struggles against left-handed pitching.

Hearkening back to Pedro’s role as the team’s chief power threat, his improvement in at-bats per home run is the deciding factor for me. Hitting the equivalent of one home run every 4-5 games indicates that he is doing his job. The real question becomes: Has Pedro’s value to the team decreased? It’s a fair question, one that prompted Joe Starkey of the Tribune Review and 93.7 The Fan to ask if the team would even trust him in a Wild Card game scenario.

That remains to be seen, but Pedro Alvarez is still bringing some value to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

It may not be the value fans envisioned after his breakout 2013, but value nonetheless.

For more baseball talk and general observations on life, please follow me on Twitter.

Next: Pittsburgh Pirates Wake-Up Call: Taking care of Business

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