Has J.A. Happ cemented his status as the 3rd postseason starter?

J.A. Happ may have been the only bright spot for the Pirates in last night’s tough loss to the Cardinals. Happ tossed six innings of one-hit, no-run ball, and was only removed from the game for a pinch-hitter because the Pirates were trying anything possible to score a run. Based on his low pitch count, Happ could have been on his way to a complete game at any other point in the season. After having a few dicey outings recently (if you consider giving up two in one outing and three runs in another dicey), Happ returned to his dominant form Monday night. In fact, Happ may be propelling himself into the third starter position in a potential postseason rotation.

But wasn’t A.J. Burnett all but certain to be the third starter behind Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano? He was heading into the season, at least, and he was before he went on the disabled list. But Burnett’s poor performance right before his injury and his average outings since his return from the DL haven’t inspired confidence that he can be that number three guy. Happ, on the other hand, has surged forward and taken hold of that number three role. And it’s a good thing Happ has worked out because the Pirates need a quality third starter behind Cole and Liriano come playoff time.

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Happ showed last night that he can be much more than just a ground ball pitcher that can get through five innings without allowing much damage. While he didn’t strike out many batters (just four on the night), he was able to throw many first pitch strikes and get outs efficiently. He didn’t issue a walk on the night, and was as efficient as one could ask him to be, needing only 56 pitches to get through six innings of work. 43 of those pitches were strikes, and throwing a lot of strikes is generally a recipe for success.

As a Pirate, Happ hasn’t issued more than two walks in any outing, and while he generally gives up more fly balls than ground balls, only three of those fly balls have resulted in home runs. This most recent start was very important for both Happ and the team, as he showed the ability to bounce back from a few rough outings.

Burnett hasn’t been bad since his return from the DL, but he hasn’t been great either. He’s given up at least two runs in each of his four outings in September, and hasn’t been able to last past the sixth inning in any of those outings. While Happ’s given up just three home runs total in 10 starts as a Pirate, Burnett has given up three home runs across just his last four starts. Burnett does have more playoff experience than Happ, and we all know that Clint Hurdle does give some value to being a veteran player. But who would be better for this team in the three spot in the rotation come playoff time?

The answer has to be J.A. Happ right now. The Pirates can still utilize Burnett as the fourth man by opening a division series with a four-man rotation, but Happ has earned his spot. Each player may get one more start in the regular season, depending on if the division is still within reach in the last few games. This start may cement who locks down that number three spot, and I believe that it will and should go to J.A. Happ.

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