Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs – The Bullpen

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

In preparation for the upcoming Wild Card game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs, we’ll be comparing the two teams position by position to see where the advantages lie. In our third segment, we’re taking a look at the bullpen for both teams.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs are not that different when you break it down. Both teams have a steady mix of young players and some veterans to balance things out. It’s no wonder these two teams had the second and third best records in all of baseball. We’ve already recapped the infielders and outfielders of these two outstanding teams, now we’re going to take a look at their bullpens.

Both the Pirates and Cubs have fantastic bullpens and as we saw with Kansas City in 2014, that can be a huge game changer. If by some weird chance the Wildcard game becomes a battle of the bullpens, who has the advantage? I’ll break it down piece by piece.

Next: Long Man

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Long Man:

Pirates: Joe Blanton

Cubs: Trevor Cahill

Joe Blanton has been absolutely outstanding since he was picked up by the Pirates right before the trade deadline. Since he joined the Pirates he’s pitched to 1.57ERA/2.11FIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine. If it wasn’t for J.A. Happ, Blanton would probably be the biggest pitching surprise of the deadline. He’s been a fantastic long man for the Buccos and can even be an effective single inning guy if need be.

Trevor Cahill is similar to Blanton in a lot of ways. He’s an ex-starter that wasn’t great with his previous team, but a change of scenery did wonders for him. In his 11 games with the Cubs he’s got a 2.11ERA/3.13FIP and 11.6 strikeouts per nine. Cahill has been an effective big league starter with Oakland and Arizona before going to Atlanta and it looked like his career was completely stalled. Since he’s been in Chicago, he’s been an effective weapon for Joe Maddon out of the bullpen when needed.

Verdict: I am going to give this one to the Pirates mostly because Joe Blanton has double the innings that Cahill has. He has the better ERA and FIP, which to me says that Blanton has been more effective in his role. However, I don’t think either Blanton or Cahill will play much of a part in the NL Wildcard Game, but that’s the beauty of October, you never know who the hero is going to be.

Next: Middle Relief

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Middle Relief:

Pirates: Arquimedes Caminero, Jared Hughes, Antonio Bastardo

Cubs: Travis Wood, Clayton Richard, Justin Grimm

Arquimedes Caminero has had an up and down season for the Pirates. At times he’s looked absolutely dominant, but he hit a stretch midseason where he was completely ineffective and he appeared to be a DFA candidate, but the Pirates kept their faith in “The Snowman,” and it paid off as down the stretch he’s been super effective. Overall he’s been solid with a 3.62ERA/3.80FIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine. His fastball often hits 100MPH, but can be flat at times and hittable, however when he’s on, he’s a very effective weapon.

Jared Hughes has been Mr. Fix It for Clint Hurdle as he’s often been used to get hitters out with men on base and he’s been outstanding in that role as he’s stranded 81 percent of runners he’s inherited. His overall numbers are great too pitching to a 2.28ERA/3.81FIP and he has a ground ball rate of 63.7 percent. His sinker is his how he attacks hitters with men on base and he’s been great at it. There’s almost no other pitcher I’d rather see in the game with men on base than Jared Hughes. If Cole leaves mid-inning, Hughes could be the difference between winning and losing and that’s fine with me.

Antonio Bastardo was a whipping boy for much of the season and was a living embodiment of numbers vs. narrative. If you had asked the average fan in August if Bastardo was good, they’d likely tell you no, despite the fact that after July he’s been one of the best left handed relievers in baseball. Since the All Star Break he’s pitched to a 2.32ERA and his overall numbers have been very good 2.98ERA/3.11FIP while striking out 11 per nine innings. He’s also been fantastic at getting left-handed hitters out. Holding them a .138AVG/.233OBP/.215SLG/.448OPS split. If there’s a situation late in game and you need to get a tough left handed hitter out, Bastardo could be Hurdle’s man.

Pirates Middle Relief Totals: 2.96ERA/3.57FIP

Travis Wood started the season as the Cubs fifth starter, but throughout the course of the season he lost his job and was moved to the bullpen. He’s had a very up and down season, but since mid July his ERA has gone down each month and he was very good in September, pitching to a 0.65ERA, which brought his season numbers down to a more than respectable 3.84ERA/3.40FIP and 10.5 strikeouts per nine. He’s been a much better pitcher out of the bullpen down the stretch for the Cubs and has even saved four games in four attempts. The move to the bullpen has done wonders for Wood as he was very poor as a starter in 2014 and the beginning of 2015.

Clayton Richard is a name that should be familiar to many Pirates’ fans as he was in the organization during Spring Training and the beginning of 2015. He spent all of this time at AAA-Indianapolis and used his opt out to sign with the Cubs on July 3^rd, 2015. As a starter he was solid, but unspectacular. When he was moved to the bullpen he became much more effective and has done mostly solid work for the Cubs. He was okay in September pitching a 3.97ERA, which followed a fantastic July. His overall work is good with a 3.83ERA/3.58FIP and a much improved walk rate of 1.5 per nine innings. Richard hasn’t been amazing for the Cubs but he’s been a very steady contributor, which is all you can ask from a spot starter/middle reliever.

Justin Grimm has been fantastic ever since he joined the Cubs in 2013 and this season was no different. He was a mediocre starter for the Texas Rangers, but upon coming to Chicago he was converted to a reliever and has been super effective. This season has very much been his best of his career as he has a 1.99ERA/3.11FIP and has struck out 12.1 per nine innings. No matter how you slice it, Grimm is a very good reliever. He’s been a middle inning guy and a late inning guy for the Cubs this year. He’s basically used whenever Joe Maddon needs a big out and he’s done it more often than not.

Cubs Middle Relief Totals: 3.22ERA/3.36FIP

Verdict: I don’t think either team has a clear advantage here, fairly similar ERA and FIP. Pirates have the slightly better ERA, but the Cubs have a better FIP. So to me this is a push. If the game does come down to middle relief, it would likely be a situational advantage depending on which part of the lineup they’re facing.

Next: Late Inning/Setup

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Closers:

Pirates: Mark Melancon

Cubs: Hector Rondon

Mark Melancon had a very rocky start to 2015 as he had a noticeable decrease in velocity, but he rebounded nicely to become the top closer in the National League this season with 51 saves. Saves aren’t the only reason Melancon has been outstanding this season, he’s pitched to a 2.23ERA/2.82FIP and a 0.926WHIP. The formula for the Pirates this season has been simple, have a lead after six innings and let Soria and Watson bridge the game to Melancon and it has worked way more often than it hasn’t. If the Pirates can manage a lead after six innings, they have a great chance to win the ballgame with Melancon closing it out.

Pirates Closer Totals: 2.23ERA/2.82FIP/51 saves

Hector Rondon has been absolutely ridiculous in 2015 for the Cubs. He’s been a terrific closer for Joe Maddon’s team converting 30 saves with a 1.67ERA/2.68FIP and 1.000WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has been extremely good in the second half of the season and Rondon has been the leader of it. The 27-year-old has been fairly effective since he made his big league debut in 2013, but 2015 has clearly been his breakout season. He won the Closer job out of Spring Training and has not relinquished it for obvious reason. It’s best the Pirates avoid him in the Wildcard Game.

Cubs Closer Totals: 1.67ERA/2.68FIP/30 saves

Verdict: This one is very difficult for me because both closers have been absolutely tremendous for their teams, but the key for me is Rondon has blown four saves this season in 34 opportunities while Melancon has blown two in 53 opportunities. Both pitchers are absolutely fantastic, but you have more of a chance to get Rondon to blow a save than Melancon. However, I wouldn’t want to take my chances with Rondon has he hasn’t blown a save since August 12^th. This is very close, but if I was managing a game in the ninth inning and needed three outs, I’d choose Melancon over Rondon.

Next: Conclusion

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games and the Chicago Cubs won 97, so it’s no secret that these two teams are extremely even in most categories and the bullpen is no different. However I think there’s a reason the Pirates have the best bullpen ERA in the league with a 2.67ERA and have allowed the second fewest bullpen earned runs in the league. While the Cubs have the fourth best bullpen ERA at 3.38 and the sixth fewest bullpen earned runs at 193.

The bullpen is a huge strength for the Pirates and if the game comes down to a battle of the bullpens I really like the Pirates’ chances. The formula of Soria, Watson and Melancon may be the best 1-2-3 in all of baseball and if Cole can give the Pirates six innings and leave with a lead, I would feel extremely confident in the Pirates’ chances to move onto the NLDS. The Cubs are no slouches either, in the battle of the bullpens, the Pirates are king as they have arguable the best bullpen in all of baseball. It’s very hard to compete with that.

Much has been published about the starting pitchers in the NL Wildcard game and for good reason, but more often than not, bullpens decide playoff games and in almost any matchup the Pirates would have a clear advantage and this game is no different. The Cubs have a tremendous bullpen of their own, but no team in baseball is better than the Pirates. If the Royals taught us anything in 2014 it’s that you can ride a talented bullpen all the way to the World Series.

Next: Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs - The Outfielders