Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs – The Outfielders

Oct 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates outfielders

(6) and

(center) and

(right) celebrate in the outfield after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. The Pirates won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In preparation for the upcoming Wild Card game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs, we’ll be comparing the two teams position by position to see where the advantages lie. In our first segment, we’re taking a look at the starting outfields for both teams.

The Pirates came into the season with expectation that their outfield would be one of the best in the majors. Andrew McCutchen was coming off his third consecutive top three NL MVP finish, and Starling Marte was a rising star. Gregory Polanco would be taking back the starting right fielder position and everyone was hoping that he would make improvements over the poor start to his major league career at the very least. This trio didn’t disappoint. McCutchen followed up a rough April with a great summer, and will likely get top 10 MVP votes this season, even if he did regress slightly from his previus campaigns. Marte had a fantastic season, and possibly his best one to date, as he continues to be one of the underrated stars of the game. Polanco battled through an up and down first half of the season by rebounding in July and August, and while he did slump again in September, he showed improvements from last season.

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The Cubs promoted some of their highly-touted prospects this season who took over many starting positions as the season moved forward. Kris Bryant came up and played mostly at third base, though he may have an outside shot to start at left field in the Wild Card game if Joe Maddon wants to get creative. Chris Coghlan is the most likely option to start in left, as he’s played himself into that role this season. Kyle Schwarber was a catching prospect that has found a niche in left field this year, but he will probably play in right field, which became his role as the season progressed. Jorge Soler has played a lot of right field this season, but he may be used as a bat off the bench on Wednesday night. Dexter Fowler, who was acquired in the offseason from the Astros, is a veteran that has cemented his role as the leadoff man in this Cubs’ lineup and the starting center fielder.

There are other depth options for both teams that probably won’t start but may be used off the bench late in the game. The Pirates have the option of starting Josh Harrison in right field if they don’t feel comfortable with Polanco facing Jake Arrieta, while they will most likely have Travis Snider off the bench. The Cubs have any of the options mentioned above, as well as Austin Jackson, all of whom would be fantastic bench options.

Let’s break down the most likely starting options for each team on Wednesday night.

Next: McCutchen v. Fowler

Oct 2, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) makes a sliding attempt on a ball hit for an RBI double by Cincinnati Reds right fielder

(not pictured) during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Center Field – Andrew McCutchen vs. Dexter Fowler

McCutchen was one of the premier offensive players in the game yet again this season. He batted .292/.401/.488 with 96 RBIs, and was a huge run producer for this team up until the last couple weeks of the year. He’s never been a fantastic defensive player, but he’s always been able to use his speed to get to many balls that other players might not be able to. He doesn’t have a great arm and can occasionally misplay a ball in the field, but his defensive mistakes can often be covered by the range of Marte in left and Polanco in right. We also tend to forgive his defensive lapses because of his offensive prowess at the plate. He amassed 4.8 wins above replacement this season, a much lower total than in previous years, but still significant. He’s the gear that keys this offense, and it will be difficult for the Pirates to beat Arrieta and the Cubs if McCutchen doesn’t play well. He won’t need to carry this team through the postseason like he might have in years past if the Pirates manage to advance past Wednesday night, but in one game, he can be a huge key to beating Arrieta. It will also be interesting to see if McCutchen attempts to steal any bases in the game, as runs will be at a premium. He only had 11 stolen bases this season, as his speed hasn’t been needed on the base-paths as much as it has in years past, but the team may need him to take off on Wednesday.

Fowler had another good major league season as he continued his role as the leadoff man that he held for so long in Colorado and Houston. Fowler had a .250/.346/.411 line this season and was worth 2.2 wins above replacement, right in line with his career averages. Fowler’s not typically a power hitter, but he set a career high this season with 17 home runs. That power from the leadoff spot is something to keep an eye on with the way Gerrit Cole pitches to him. But Fowler also set a career high in strikeouts, so maybe he’s changed the way he approaches at-bats this season. Fowler also adds speed on the base-paths, as seen in his 20 steals this year. Overall, Fowler played the most games of his career this year, and will try to get on base out of the leadoff spot as often as possible. Pirates’ pitchers, including Cole, aren’t great at holding runners on, so Cole will have to keep speedy guys like Fowler off the bases as often as possible.

It’s hard to compare these two players because they have different roles on the team. Fowler is the leadoff man, while McCutchen is the star player for Pittsburgh. But if we are comparing these two players for this exercise, there’s a clear winner.

Verdict: Andrew McCutchen

Next: Marte v. Schwarber

Sep 24, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marte (6) hits a single during the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. The Pirates won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Left Field – Starling Marte v. Kyle Schwarber

Marte posted another fantastic, underrated season, and arguably his best one yet. It’s his third consecutive 5+ WAR season, and he set a career high in home runs (19) and RBIs (81). He still strike outs a lot more than he walks, but that’s who he is as a player at this point. He continues to be a threat on the bases with his third consecutive 30+ steal season, and he typically steals bases at around a 75 percent clip, which isn’t bad. He also has a case for Gold Glove in left field this year, as he’s the best defensive outfielder on the team and one of the best defensive outfielders in all of baseball. He adds to his great defense with a cannon for an arm, and he’s the definition of a five-tool player, especially with the power he added this season. Marte will most likely bat out of the two-hole on Wednesday, where he’s had the most success this season. From that role, he’ll be relied upon to get on base and put his speed to use. As mentioned before with McCutchen, but even moreso with Marte, runs will be hard to come by, and stolen bases need to be taken whenever possible. Arrieta isn’t particularly great at holding runners on, like Cole, so if a runner gets on, he should be thinking about taking off.

Kyle Schwarber was one of the prospects called up this season by the Cubs, and even though he was a catching prospect and has seen time at catcher this season, he’s played primarily in left field, as the veteran Miguel Montero has cemented down the catcher role and the Cubs had a spot available for the taking in the outfield. And the Cubs wanted to get Schwarber’s bat into the lineup however possible, which has paid off. Schwarber is a power threat, as he added 16 home runs in just 60 games played this season. Schwarber has batted primarily out of the two hole this year, like Marte, but he may bat lower in the lineup on Wednesday if the Cubs want more speed at the top of the lineup and want to better put his power to use. Schwarber only has three steals this season, so he isn’t really a threat on the bases. He’s about an average defender based on his DWAR (-0.2), but he does have seven assists, so his arm shouldn’t be discounted.

Schwarber may be a star in the future, but he’s still relatively new to his outfield role. Marte has cemented his stardom this season, and can change the game in every possible way.

Verdict: Starling Marte

Next: Polanco v. Coghlan

Oct 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Gregory Polanco (25) reacts at second base after hitting a double against the Cincinnati Reds during the seventh inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Right Field – Gregory Polanco vs. Chris Coghlan

This is the position that could change come game time. Polanco is probably the favorite to start in right for the Pirates, but he’s slumped in September while Josh Harrison has heated up, so an argument can be made to play Harrison in right over Polanco. And Coghlan is probably the favorite to start in right for the Cubs, but depending on the way the Cubs choose to align their outfield, that could change. Bryant could play in left, which would shift Schwarber to right and relegate Coghlan to the bench. But for argument’s sake, we’re going to go with Polanco and Coghlan for the time being.

Polanco was coming off a poor start to his major league career last season and into the first half of this season, but he rebounded nicely in the summer months. He was worth 2.5 wins above replacement in 2015, and took hold of the leadoff role as the season progressed. Polanco is slowly adding power to his repertoire, and while it’s not fully there yet, he’s still a threat to hit one out at any time. And he can do so against elite pitching, as he did against Clayton Kershaw earlier this season to end Kershaw’s scoreless streak. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk a ton, but that will hopefully change a bit as he develops as a player. He stole 27 bases this season, good for second on the team behind Marte, and he’s certainly a threat to turn singles into doubles via the steal if he gets on. He has a cannon for an arm in right, and the Cubs need to be wary of that; his arm is arguably the best of any outfielder for either team. But he makes the occasional gaffe defensively when playing balls in right, and he makes some poor decisions on the bases as well. He has his weaknesses, and they could hurt the Pirates in a one game playoff.

Pirates’ fans know Chris Coghlan most notably for his slide that helped knock out Jung Ho Kang for the season. But if we evaluate him objectively, we see that Coghlan went from a journeyman to a starting left fielder this season. Coghlan adds power in the form of 16 home runs to a Cubs’ lineup that has power throughout, and his 11 steals this season show that he can take a base when needed. He’s an average to below average defensive player, but he has added eight assists from left field, so the Cubs’ do have players in the outfield that can gun guys out if that opportunity arises.

Coghlan is a good player in his own right, and has been a better run producer than Polanco this season. Polanco’s occasional mistakes defensively and on the bases make me nervous, even though his upside in any game is higher than that of Coghlan.

Verdict: Gregory Polanco (barely)

Next: Conclusion