Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs: The Starting Pitchers

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Oct 2, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

It goes without saying that every pitcher would like to start an at-bat with a strike. It also goes without saying that a mark of a good pitcher is an ability to battle back from unfavorable counts. For this stat, I’m going to specifically look at the numbers after a particular count. To me, this is a clear indicator of changed approaches from Cole and Arrieta and also indicative of both the pitcher and the batter’s ability to “fight back.”

So let’s take a look at how Arrieta handles his business at different counts in 2015:

Split	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
After 1-0	345	314	59	13	3	4	28	78	2.79	.188	.257	.287	.543
After 2-0	124	102	22	5	1	1	20	19	0.95	.216	.344	.314	.658
After 3-0	34	19	3	0	0	0	15	5	0.33	.158	.529	.158	.687
After 0-1	426	401	67	13	1	3	20	158	7.90	.167	.212	.227	.439
After 1-1	332	309	52	9	2	2	21	115	5.48	.168	.226	.230	.456
After 2-1	182	157	29	8	0	0	22	48	2.18	.185	.289	.236	.525
After 3-1	64	48	7	2	0	0	15	13	0.87	.146	.349	.188	.537
After 0-2	198	191	25	5	0	1	7	102	14.57	.131	.162	.173	.334
After 1-2	267	255	34	6	1	1	11	136	12.36	.133	.172	.176	.349
After 2-2	217	194	32	6	0	0	22	101	4.59	.165	.253	.196	.449

Looking at these numbers, I have to admit I am impressed. At first glance, it seems as if Arrieta refuses to let opposing batters get a hit after he falls behind. He almost seems more content to allow a walk and start fresh with a new batter. The slashlines are all good across all of these counts as well.

Before we draw a direct comparison, we need to look at Cole’s stats at different counts in 2015. Here they are:

Split	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
After 1-0	316	278	71	12	3	4	30	63	2.10	.255	.335	.363	.699
After 2-0	96	74	26	6	1	3	19	11	0.58	.351	.489	.581	1.070
After 3-0	26	11	4	2	0	0	15	2	0.13	.364	.731	.545	1.276
After 0-1	430	408	91	16	1	6	14	139	9.93	.223	.250	.311	.561
After 1-1	330	303	66	8	1	2	21	97	4.62	.218	.274	.271	.544
After 2-1	166	141	44	3	0	3	21	41	1.95	.312	.402	.397	.800
After 3-1	62	40	12	2	0	1	22	14	0.64	.300	.548	.425	.973
After 0-2	188	182	26	6	1	1	4	94	23.50	.143	.160	.203	.363
After 1-2	246	233	29	4	1	1	8	117	14.63	.124	.159	.163	.322
After 2-2	186	164	31	4	1	1	17	75	4.41	.189	.269	.244	.513

Cole clearly needs to start ABs with a strike moreso than Arrieta does. I believe that slugging percentage is a huge differential here and provides a good comparison point. In 1-1 and 2-1 counts, Arrieta has much better slugging against numbers than Cole does. This may indicate Arrieta having a harder go-to pitch for hitters to drive (his other-worldly sinker) than Cole, or it could simply indicate a better performance.

My conclusion here is that Arrieta does a better job of limiting damage after falling behind in counts.

For my next comparison, I wanted to see how both of these aces fare against the opposing teams later in games.

Next: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

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