Projecting Non-Tender Candidates for the Pittsburgh Pirates

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Sep 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Travis Snider (23) hits a two run single against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

As the arbitration process looms, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be faced with some difficult choices.

Same as last year.

Likely the same will be true next year.

The list of players up for arbitration after the 2015 MLB season concludes is daunting. From the list (complete with salary projections) over at MLB Trade Rumors:

Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM Travis Snider (5.054) – $2.4MM Travis Ishikawa (5.000) – $1.2MM Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM

Now that we’ve seen the gory details, it’s time to make some sense out of these candidates. Today we are going to identify just who the Pirates figure to lose before spring training.

Let’s back up for a moment. To understand arbitration, I can offer you a couple of resources. One is our recent podcast with Matt Swartz, arbitration guru for MLB Trade Rumors. Matt wrote the salary projections you see above and is usually very accurate.

For a more birds-eye view of arbitration, check out this piece from MLB Trade Rumors that explains both the entire process as well as the concept of non-tendering a player. Here’s the money quote:

A player’s first trip through the arbitration process is usually fairly inexpensive… but upon reaching arbitration for the second, third and fourth times, prices can begin to make teams uncomfortable…. Teams will decide…whether to tender contracts to those arb-eligible players… or cut them loose — a non-tender. By non-tendering a player, the team is allowing him to immediately become a free agent.

So who among the Pirates in that list are non-tender candidates? That’s the goal of this piece. So let’s start by framing the list.

Next: No chance to be non-tendered

Sep 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; (Editors note: multiple exposure) Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Mark Melancon (35) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

No chance to be non-tendered

Mark Melancon – the MLB leader in saves may in fact be traded before 2016, but to do so he needs to be under team control. He’ll get an offer.
Neil Walker – the more and more that gets said and reported about Walker’s contract negotiations with the team, the more both sides seem to be content with riding the contract out and letting things fall where they may.
Tony Watson – if one accepts the conventional wisdom that Melancon is not long for Pirate uniform, then there is no chance Watson slips through the cracks. Two consecutive dominant years solidifies his place in the team’s plans.
Francisco Cervelli – Cervelli’s previous injury history and lukewarm play before becoming a Pirate work in the team’s favor here, as his projected figure is still an incredible bargain for a catcher who can bat close to .300.
Jordy Mercer – it’s a shame that an injury can work in a club’s favor during this process, but Mercer’s long absence will help to keep his price down. For the defense he provides in the system the Pirates employ, there’s no reason to think Mercer will be going anywhere any time soon.
Jared Hughes – middle relievers with good groundball rates and a knack for getting out of jams more often than not will always have a place at the right price. Much like Watson, he will still come at a bargain rate. Another good year, though, and Neal Huntington may balk at a salary that may approach $4.5 million.

Next, we identify those Pirates that are locks to not be with the club next year.

Next: Say goodbye to these Pirates

Jun 28, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Vance Worley (46) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Braves won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Locks to be non-tendered

Travis Snider – Snider’s return to the Pirates in late summer was more of a feel-good story than any tangible addition to the roster. The outfield depth is cloudy right now, but the Pirates will save money where they can, and that includes Snider’s projected $2 million+ salary.
Travis Ishikawa – proponents of bringing Ishikawa back point to his multi-positional flexibility. Critics of bringing him back will point to his utter lack of production. The critics win.
Vance Worley – probably the hardest player to put in this section of the list, but after a 0.0 WAR season that saw him spend a large chunk of it away from the big-league club, it feels like Worley has reached the end of the road with the Pirates. It spoke volumes that the club felt it needed to go out and get Joe Blanton to pitch long relief rather than roll the dice with Worley. Worley has still not put together two consecutive “good” seasons.

Last, let’s look at those that make us shrug our shoulders.

Next: It could go either way

September 20, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) runs after he hits a single in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It could go either way

Pedro Alvarez – if you believe the rumors – and, really, do you have any reason not to? – the Pirates were trying to trade Alvarez in the middle of a 27-home run season in 2015. Pedro actually took very good strides this year offensively in some regards. He lowered his overall K%, and put together a batting line that is acceptable for what he’s asked to be. He also led the club in errors as he still adapted to first base. On one hand, the market may have informed the Pirates of exactly what to expect if they should non-tender him and try to work a deal. Based on that light, Huntington may decide to ride out one more year with a 25-hr guy in his lineup, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
Jeff Locke – one of the lightning rods for criticism in the Pirates rotation, Locke struggled in posting a 4.49 ERA for 2015. Many wouldn’t feel horrible about it if he were to ply his trade elsewhere. Locke’s fate may be directly tied to J.A. Happ. Should Happ give strong indicators that he will re-sign with the club, the Pirates may cut bait with Locke. He doesn’t profile well as a long reliever, but at a projected $3.5 million, he would be a bargain for a back end starter.
Chris Stewart – this one may seem like a no-brainer with a projection of only $1.6 million, and it may end up being so. But if the Pirates are looking to cut corners, Elias Diaz is ready to step in and be a regular backup to Cervelli. In a very limited role, Stewart was capable at the plate, with a .289/.320/.340 slash.

What do YOU think? Sound off below in the comments or tweet us. Should the Pittsburgh Pirates offer contracts to everyone on this list? Did we get it wrong with our lists? Let us know! Or you can let me know directly on twitter how wrong I am.

Next: PODCAST: Arbitrarily Speaking

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