Pittsburgh Pirates Free Agent Friday

Every Friday this offseason, we’ll post our Pittsburgh Pirates Free Agent Friday piece, in which we’ll discuss a player, a group of players, a position of need, or some other topic related to the Pirates and free agency. We’ll go in-depth with stats and analysis as we hope to keep you fully informed and occupied this offseason.

It’s time for another edition of Free Agent Friday! In this week’s piece, we turn our attention to the class of free agent second basemen. Why, you might ask? Neil Walker‘s future with the Pirates is uncertain, as the team has not been able to reach an extension with him and both sides seem to be done trying. However, Walker probably still has a good chance of being with the club next season, considering the injury to Jung Ho Kang and the uncertainty of Pedro Alvarez‘s future. If both of those players are not on the 25-man roster on Opening Day, there will be a huge loss of production in the middle of the order. Thus, Walker getting traded might not be in the best interest of the team.

But if they do decide to trade him, I’m sure that one of the factors that Neil Huntington and the front office are weighing is the upcoming class of free agent second basemen. If there’s someone out there that could provide similar production to Walker at a similar price, they could try to flip Walker and sign either a stop-gap before Alen Hanson arrives or sign a player to a three- or four-year deal if Hanson turns out not to be the future at second.

Let’s take a look at who the upcoming free agent class of second basemen consists of, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors:

“Second Basemen

Joaquin Arias (31)
Mike Aviles (35)
Emilio Bonifacio (31)
Alberto Callaspo (33)
Stephen Drew (33)
Jonathan Herrera (31)
Maicer Izturis (35)
Kelly Johnson (34)
Howie Kendrick (32)
Daniel Murphy (31)
Steve Pearce (33)
Cliff Pennington (32)
Sean Rodriguez (31)
Skip Schumaker (36)
Dan Uggla (36)
Chase Utley (37)
Rickie Weeks (33)
Ben Zobrist (35)”

The one thing we immediately notice is that every one of the available players is over 30 (at least 31 to be exact). One of the reasons the Pirates didn’t want to sign Walker long-term is because he’s getting older, and players tend to break down in their early-to-mid thirties. Thus, signing any of these free agents to a longer-term contract is a slim possibility at best. Let’s start this by playing the elimination game and knock some players off the list.

A few of these guys aren’t starting second basemen or full-time starters, and are best used as utility players or not as starting second basemen. These include Joaquin Arias, Mike Aviles, Albert Callaspo, Jonathan Herrera, Kelly Johnson, Steve Pearce, Sean Rodriguez, and Skip Schumaker. And, to be honest, the only players out of these that isn’t coming off a bad year or a stretch of a few bad years are Kelly Johnson and Steve Pearce. I’ll get into Johnson in a bit, but Pearce isn’t a full-time second basemen, and is better used in the outfield or at first base.

So, once we eliminate these players, our list looks as such:

“Second Basemen

Emilio Bonifacio (31)
Stephen Drew (33)
Maicer Izturis (35)
Howie Kendrick (32)
Daniel Murphy (31)
Cliff Pennington (32)
Dan Uggla (36)
Chase Utley (37)
Rickie Weeks (33)
Ben Zobrist (35)”

We can eliminate a few more players from this list. Let’s knock off the ones that are just bad players and aren’t worth starting on a playoff contender. That knocks out Drew, Izturis, Uggla, Utley, and Weeks. Each of these players was worth less than 0.5 wins above replacement last season, and none of them have been worth more than 1.0 WAR in any of the past three seasons. Don’t let the names fool you. Each of these guys used to be a good player, but they’re all past their prime and aren’t worth a contract from the Pirates at this point in their careers.

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Now, our list is more reasonable:

“Second Basemen

Emilio Bonifacio (31)
Howie Kendrick (32)
Daniel Murphy (31)
Cliff Pennington (32)
Ben Zobrist (35)”

I’m going to knock off two more guys: Bonifacio and Pennington. Bonifacio was a negative win player last season, and is worth more as a utility player than as a starting second basemen. Pennington isn’t a great offensive player and shouldn’t be starting for a contender. He could be valuable as a cheap utility player, however, as could Bonifacio.

Finally, our list is reasonable. Here’s our final list:

“Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick (32)
Daniel Murphy (31)
Ben Zobrist (35)”

Three. That’s right, three second baseman available as free agents this offseason that are actual starting second baseman and are at least decent players. Kendrick is as good an offensive second baseman as there is in the game, but is coming off a year in which he only played in 117 games, the fewest he’s played in since 2009. But looking at his career as a whole, Kendrick has batted at least .279 every year he’s been in the league and has hit at least 50 RBIs every year since 2009. He strikes out around 100 times a season, but you’ll take that for a guy that finds ways to consistently get hits at the plate. Murphy is similar to Kendrick in terms of his production. He’s batted at least .266 every season he’s been in the majors, and has hit at least 49 RBIs every year outside of his rookie campaign. He’s never struck out 100 times in a season, and is overall a good, consistent hitter at the dish. And we’ve broken down Zobrist too many times to count. But if you’ve forgotten, he’s coming off a World Series championship with the Royals and is the premier utility player in the league. In fact, second base is the position he frequents the most. He’s been as dynamic in his utility role as many players are as starters, and has amassed 8+ WAR seasons multiple times. Yeah, he’s that good.

The only problem is, these guys are going to get paid. Kendrick and Murphy will be sought after by teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, who the Pirates just can’t compete with payroll-wise. Zobrist would be a fantastic pickup, especially as a utility player, and he could start at second until Hanson is (potentially) ready. But Zobrist is also probably going to get paid as everyone knows how valuable he is.

I also wouldn’t mind guys like Kelly Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, or Cliff Pennington as utlity/bench players, just not as starters.

In the end, the Pirates aren’t going to find a reasonable free agent option that would be better overall than Walker. The Pirates don’t want to sign Walker long-term for the same reason they probably won’t want to sign Kendrick or Murphy long-term: they’re getting older. They’re both in their their thirties, and they may only have a couple good seasons left. Each of those guys is also probably looking for a four- or five-year deal, which I don;t see the Pirates doing. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll spend some money on Zobrist, but his services will definitely be highly sought after.

I see Walker as the starter next season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but that’s just me.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Free Agent Friday – the second basemen

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