These Pittsburgh Pirates Could Hit 20+ Home Runs in 2016

The Pirates have lost some serious home run power in Pedro Alvarez.  Will his home run power be missed?  Alvarez had hit 131 home runs in his career as a Pirate, with 27 of them coming last season. Alvarez seemingly has some pretty desired attributes: he’s a former All-Star, he can hit the long ball, and manages to strikeout at a slightly lower rate than the 2015 league leader in that category, the Cubs’ Kris Bryant. Yet, as of today, no club has signed Alvarez for the 2016 campaign. So, just how important is home run power then if Alvarez can’t find a home?

Beyond Alvarez’s lost power – the Pirates have also lost Neil Walker. Walker hit 23 home runs and then 16 in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Which Pirates can we expect home run power from in 2016? Will the club hit fewer than the 140 home runs they hit 2015 – a number that had them 23rd of the 30 MLB teams?  Or are home runs largely irrelevant, merely the bread and circus of modern baseball?  After all, the Kansas City Royals were 24th on that same list and we know how the year ended for them.

Matt Joyce, OF

Matt Joyce might be the Pirates fourth outfielder. He might not be. His status will be sorted out in Spring Training. He might not even be on any Pirates roster at all. The Pirates signed him in February. On the plus side of the ledger, he does bring 2,817 MLB plate appearances to the table. That’s some decent experience that other guys competing for the outfield job don’t have.  But what about his home run power?  In 2011 while playing for the Tampa Bay Rays he hit 19 home runs on 522 plate appearances.  If he made the Pirates club for 2016, it seems unlikely he’d get the at bats to hit more than a handful of home runs. Or unless this was a total and complete turn around year for Matt Joyce and some tragic injury befell their outfield depth of McCutchen, Marte and Polanco.

Prediction: 8 home runs for Pittsburgh in 2016 if he makes the team.

Willie Garcia, OF

Willy Garcia is a top prospect in the Pirates system. In fact, he’s been in that system since he was 17 years old. He is now 23. There is little question that he has the power to hit the long ball. For Garcia, his appearance in the big leagues will be determined by his ability to mature as a hitter.  In the minors, he’s hit 67 home runs in the past four seasons, while also managing to strike 571 times on 102 walks. If he doesn’t get that under control, he’ll never be an everyday player anywhere.

Prediction:  Garcia gets some time in Pittsburgh this year as a fourth outfielder and hits 10 home runs in the big leagues.

Josh Bell, 1B/OF

Josh Bell is another top prospect for the Pirates. He may be a candidate for first base now that Pedro Alvarez is gone. But even there he is a question mark as his defense is well below average (he made 16 errors there last season). On the other side of the ledger he hits for average – .347 in AAA last year  – but not for power. The reason, according to Baseball Prospectus, is “that he doesn’t tap into his lower half well” when swinging. Seemingly, the Pirates aren’t quite sure what to make of Bell yet either. He simply might need more time to figure it out.

Prediction:  Bell gets some time in Pittsburgh this year, maybe 100 at-bats at most, and hits his first and only home run of the season in July. With the Pirates depth chart showing Jaso, Morse, Rogers and Rodriguez there is still no room for Bell.

Jung ho Kang, INF

It looks like Jung ho Kang is on track for being back in the lineup for Opening Day after his late season ending injury last year. At least that’s the hope. Kang isn’t really a power hitter. He’s just a disciplined hitter and an all around good baseball player. In many ways, he’s the best signing the Pirates have made in a very long time. Kang is a very exciting part of Pirates baseball. Hopefully, with the new MLB rule change, the Chris Coghlan scissor kick slide that took him down late last season won’t happen to Kang or any other player again.

Prediction: 20 home runs, 70 RBIs, a .300 batting average and an All-Star appearance. 

Starling Marte, LF

Marte loves to swing the bat. He strikes out a lot. He hates to walk. Watching him there is little doubt when the chips are down, he’s swinging. Not surprisingly in 2015, he led National League hitters with the highest swing and chase rates. If he had a little more plate discipline he’d probably be one of the very best outfielders in baseball. Either way, this should be a season that sees some Marte improvement. In each of his major league seasons so far he has improved the number of hits, doubles, home runs, RBIs obtained while gently reducing the rate at which he strikes out. It seems a very safe bet that 2016 will see further improvement.

Prediction: 20 home runs, less strikeouts and more walks.

Andrew McCutchen, CF

Of all the players that can hit 20+ home runs in a season, McCutchen is the closet thing to a sure bet that this club has. For starters, he’s the only player on the team that has actually done it more than once.  Michael Morse has hit more than 20 home runs – but only once, way back in 2011. Since 2011, McCutchen has been over 20 home runs every single season. 2016 should be no exception. McCutchen will be McCutchen.

Prediction: 25 home runs. Another big year for Pittsburgh’s franchise player.