Pirates-Rockies Series Preview

The Pirates finish their western road trip with a 4 game series with the Colorado Rockies beginning Monday night. Read on for the Pirates-Rockies Series Preview:

Pirates-Rockies Series Preview:

Rockies Record: 9-9 (Tied for 2^nd in NL West)

Last Series Result: Dropped 2 of 3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers

The Rockies made no major moves during the offseason and come into 2016 not expecting to contend in an NL West division featuring the always loaded Dodgers, the always competitive Giants, and this past off-season’s power player in the Diamondbacks. Currently, they are waiting for their prospects to be ready and they will likely make some moves at the deadline to further stock their already strong farm system. The Rockies as a whole look similar to their division rivals down in Arizona, whom the Pirates just had the pleasure of visiting. By that I mean a heavy-hitting team with suspect pitching. Currently the Rockies are slashing .267/.327/.481 as a team (6^th/8^th/2^nd in MLB). Their 28 Home Runs are second in all of baseball (with Arizona in first with 29) and their 71 extra base-hits are 3^rd. On the flip side, their pitching staff as a whole has an ERA of 5.68, last in the Major Leagues. Additionally, their opponents are slashing .276/.338/.464 (26^th/21^st/27^th in MLB)

I mentioned above that the Rockies are currently waiting for their prospects to be Major League ready. However, the Rockies were forced to bring on prospect up before they probably would have liked and he has made a splash. By now I’m sure you’ve all heard of the Rockies new Shortstop Trevor Story who came out and hit 7 Home Runs in the first 6 games of his career. The Rockies were originally forced to start him because of Jose Reyes impending suspension for domestic violence and an injury to Daniel Descalso. Since his hot start though, it’s become obvious that Story is not quite ready for the Major Leagues. He has only hit one home run since April 10^th and he is striking out in 37% of his plate appearances. Story is still a home run threat and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit one or two off of this Pirates pitching staff, however I would be more surprised if they don’t also get him to strike out more than a couple of times.

Forgotten in the Trevor Story hubbub is that the Rockies have probably the best Third Baseman in all of baseball in Nolan Arenado. Arenado is only in his 4^th big league season and he is already working on his 4^th Gold Glove from the hot corner. He is of course also incredible dangerous from the plate as he exploded for 42 Home Runs last season. He is well on his way to replicating this lofty total as he already has 7 on the season. It’s looking like the 25-year-old will only continue to get better as he is currently slashing 275/.359/.623 despite a BABIP of .211. Additionally though it is still early in the season, his walk rate is way up and his strikeout rate is way down (11.5% BB Rate in 2016 compared with 5.3% BB Rate in career; 6.4% K Rate in 2016 compared with 14.2% K Rate in career).

Rounding out the rest of the Rockies infield are D.J. LeMahieu at Second Base and the platoon of Ben Paulsen and Mark Reynolds at First Base. Paulsen, who also plays in Left Field, has gotten off to a bit of a hot start, slashing .316/.381/.526 with half of his 12 hits going for extra bases. Don’t expect that to continue though as he has a high BABIP of .440, though this is not as high as it may seem at first as his career BABIP is .366. The Rockies are thin at catcher with everyday starter Nick Hundley out since April 14^th with a concussion. Hundley should make his return during this series and we’ll have more on him below. In his absence the Rockies have been forced to utilize Tony Wolters, a rookie who prior to this season had never played above AA, as their starter.

The Rockies are also somewhat thin in Outfield with starting Center Fielder Charlie Blackmon currently on the Disabled List with turf toe. He is not expected to return until after the Pirates get out-of-town. In his place Brandon Barnes has been underwhelming while holding down starting duties, slashing .231/.286/.385 which is in line with his career averages (.244/.293/.360). In Left Field, the Rockies typically send out Gerardo Parra, who has been more or less replacement level since posting a career high 4.5 WAR with the Diamondbacks in 2013. Since then he’s had a 0.2 WAR and is with his fourth team in that span. He is currently slashing .279/.290/.412 in 2016. In Right Field the Rockies have veteran Carlos Gonzalez who is off to a hot start, slashing .342/.385/.603 with 4 Home Runs. Gonzalez will likely have the opportunity to play for a contender this year, but it won’t be the Rockies. It’s widely assumed that the still-in-his-prime Gonzalez will be dealt at the deadline.

Probable Pitching Matchups: Pirates-Rockies Series Preview:

Game 1 – April 25, 8:10 P.M. ET

Jeff Locke (L) (0-2) vs. Chad Bettis (R) (2-0)

Game 2 – April 26, 8:10 P.M. ET

Gerrit Cole (R) (1-2) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (L) (1-2)

Game 3 – April 27, 8:10 P.M. ET

Jon Niese (L) (3-0) vs. Jon Gray (R) (0-0)

Game 4 – April 28, 3:10 P.M. ET

Juan Nicasio (R) (2-2) vs. Tyler Chatwood (R) (2-2)

Jeff Locke looks to rebound from two awful starts in his last couple appearances. Should he get roughed up again, don’t expect him to get sent to the bullpen quite yet due to the environment, but he will likely be on thinner ice. Gerrit Cole looks to keep cruising after turning in quality starts in his last two appearances. Jon Niese looks to stay undefeated, despite looking less than stellar at times. His high Home Run rate (1.93 HR/9) should go down eventually, but it may have to wait until after the Pirates leave Colorado. Juan Nicasio looks to establish some consistency after he has alternatively looked great and wild, sometimes in the same game.

Chad Bettis is probably the ace of the Rockies rotation after having a breakout 2015. His 2-0 record is deceptive though as he currently has a 4.53 FIP compared with his 3.33 ERA. Jorge De La Rosa is definitely the old man of the rotation at 35 years old. He is currently striking out 11.94 batters per 9 innings pitched, but is 1-2 with a 5.17 FIP. Jon Gray will only be making his 11^th career start in the third game of this series. In his only other start this season, he gave up 2 Home Runs, but struck out 10 over only 5 innings pitched. Tyler Chatwood is hoping his injury issues are behind him after he missed the 2015 season with Tommy John surgery. Chatwood hasn’t topped 100 innings in a season since 2013. The early returns are slightly better than his career averages, but he has also looked better in his appearances away from Coors Field.

Recent Meetings: Pirates-Rockies Series Preview

The Pirates experienced success last season in their meetings with the Rockies, going 6-1 in 7 games played. All seven games were played later in the season with the Pirates taking 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh in late August, then sweeping a 4 game series in Colorado a few weeks later. The Pirates outscored the Rockies 42-28 over the seven games they played last season.

The lone loss was a 5-0 shutout at the hands of Jorge De La Rosa who struck out 7 and gave up only 4 hits over 6 innings. The third game of the series in Colorado was a wild one that saw the Pirates go up 7-1, then allow the Rockies to get back in it in 4 run 5^th inning that saw 2 Home Runs. Still up 7-6, the Pirates put the game out of reach with a 6 run outburst in the Ninth inning that featured a 3-run double from Sean Rodriguez. At least two of those runs proved necessary when the Rockies added a run in the bottom of the Ninth, but scored no more to give the Pirates a 13-7 victory. This victory was also the win that clinched the Pirates third consecutive trip to the postseason.

Rockies Player to Watch: Nick Hundley

The Rockies everyday catcher is Nick Hundley, who is currently out with a concussion. He is currently on a rehab assignment with the Rockies AAA affiliate in Albuquerque and he is expected to make his return during this series. Hundley, a veteran at 32 years old, has spent his entire career, other than 50 games with Baltimore in 2014, in the NL West, first with the Padres and since last season with the Rockies. He’s had a relatively unremarkable career offensively, slashing .248/.302/.400 for his career, though he had a career year for the Rockies in 2015 slashing .301/.339/.467 with 10 Home Runs. Hundley is generally considered below average defensively. He was also rated by Baseball Prospectus to be the second-worst pitch framer in baseball.

Despite getting two rehab assignments under his belt, having Hundley coming off a concussion injury, whose symptoms are notorious for returning, could benefit the Pirates. While Hundley is a more proven veteran and Wolters hasn’t exactly been on a tear offensively, Hundley could suffer from some lag this series as he gets back up to Major League speed. Do I really think that Hundley will be seriously affected by this injury, not really, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Additionally, the pitching staff will have the benefit of going against a player that is a much more known quantity.

Pirates Keys to Victory: More of the Same; Pirates-Rockies Series Preview:

Limit Home Runs

Even more than the Diamondbacks, the Rockies have weak spots in their lineups that make them reliant on the Home Run to score runs. If Pirates pitching can keep the big bats, such as Story, Arenado, and Gonzalez, relatively quiet, then the Rockies will have trouble scoring many runs.

 Starting Pitchers Go Long

This is especially important after the bullpen was depleted after the 13 inning marathon on Sunday. With the bullpen depleted, and not performing very well overall, it’s important that the starting pitching goes deep into games to give them a break. Pirates starters have not gone very far this season, so this may be asking a lot, especially in Colorado.

Score…A LOT!

At the end of the day, just like in Arizona, the Pirates may just need to score a lot of runs in order to beat the Rockies. Between the heavy hitting lineup the Rockies have, the notoriously thin air that lets balls fly, and the depleted bullpen, the Pirates are likely going to give up a lot of runs. Luckily the Pirates still lead the Majors in Batting Average and On-Base Percentage, so scoring runs should hopefully not be too much of a problem. Hopefully, they can get a few extra Home Runs on long fly balls that would have stayed in the park in another environment.

Pirates-Rockies Series Preview Prediction

I find it a near-pointless endeavor to attempt to predict the outcome of not just one baseball game, but a series of three as well. However, I will do so because it’s fun and I’ve always mentally tried to do it at the beginning of every series anyways. I don’t see the Pirates sweeping this series thanks to a depleted bullpen and sub par pitching staff in general. However, the Rockies have, in many ways, an even worse pitching staff. Expect a lot of high-scoring games again. If this series was played later in the season, with a less tired bullpen and Jameson Taillon in the rotation, I would probably say the Pirates would win this series. However, given the circumstances, I’m predicting a tie series.

Pirates-Rockies Series Preview Prediction: Series tied 2-2

This was the Pirates-Rockies Series Preview, check back after the series for the recap on it.

*Stats courtesy of ESPN, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference