MLB Draft: 2016 Top High School Prep Arms

Draft High School Arms

The 2016 Major League Baseball draft is just a little over a month away, taking place on June 9. Using MLB.com, Baseball America, and other various sites, I’ll be ranking each high school player by position over the next couple of weeks, starting with the arms.

The Pirates usually don’t take pitching in the first round, let alone high school pitching. There is always the chance of that occurring though, and with the project-ability of the high school pitchers, the Pirates might change up and roll the dice with one of these arms earlier than usual.

The Pirates always seem to have projectable arms in their minors. Within the upcoming weeks, after giving out my top 8 high school players of each position, more analysis will be focused on who the Pirates could realistically target at picks number 22 and 41, along with their second round pick. The day before the draft will feature a breakdown of the typical Neal Huntington draft, as we look to provide quality Major League baseball draft previews.

It’s going to be a fun time like any other draft, and the Pirates have shown they won’t shy away from being aggressive in the first, or if not then, in rounds 2-5. So here is the first look, top eight high school arms.

Next: The best high school arm in the country from New Jersey...

Riley Pint is the second best high school arm available, and like Groome, there are great odds he won’t be around when the Pittsburgh Pirates make their selection at number 22. Pint is a 6’4” and 195 pound right handed arm from St. Thomas Aquinas High School in Kansas, and he has committed to pitch at LSU next season.

Pint has the most explosive fastball, which is already sitting mid 90s and has touched upwards near 100 miles per hour. At only 195 pounds, Pint still has room to grow and fill out, which will allow his velocity to increase, and sit in the upper 90s consistently.

His curveball has a sharp break, and appears to most likely be a slider. But as it currently sits, his curve is in the low 80 mile per hour range, but as he matures and fills out, his hook – which may turn into a slider – should increase in velocity and sit in the mid, to maybe even upper, 80s. His changeup also currently sits in the mid-80s, and has a chance to be an above average third pitch. Pint comes from a high three quarters arm slot.

I see two possible results with Pint, and with no in between: due to his full max effort and at times inconsistent delivery, I see a Wade Davis type future – a pitcher who struggles as a starter, throws hard, and then succeeds as one of the game’s premier arms in the back end of the bullpen – or possibly a top right handed starter in the game. I think he will be one or the other, and will succeed greatly in the MLB, it just won’t be for the Pirates.

Next: My favorite high school pitcher in the draft

Forrest Whitley is the perfect high school arm for the Pirates. Whitley stands at an impressive 6’7” and 225 pounds. The 18 year old from Alamo Heights High School in Texas maybe my favorite high school arm, and arm in general in this class.

The first thing is his frame, which just screams velocity, and he backs that up sitting in the mid-90s, and comfortably reaching 97 miles per hour. He also features a curve-ball sitting in the low 80s, a slider, and also a changeup.

The second thing with is height, is how he should be able to get good downward movement and induce a good portion of ground-balls. A big body should be able to strikeout a fair amount and get ground-balls is ideal. Whitley also shows a delivery that is easy to repeat, which should allow him to have a good amount of control.

To put his size in comparison, Noah Syndergaard stands at 6’6” and 240 pounds and Tyler Glasnow is 6’8” and 225 pounds. The Pirates like big right handed arms, seen in Glasnow, and Whitley certainly fits that mold. He’s committed to pitch at Florida State next season, but if he is there when the Pirates pick at number 22, I really hope he is the selection.

Ian Anderson is another arm the Pirates could potentially look at with their pick at number 22. Anderson is a 6’3” and 170 pound right handed pitcher from Shenendehowa High School in New York. Like Gowdy, Anderson has a nice projectable frame with room to fill out.

Anderson’s fastball currently hovers in the mid-90s, so as he gets bigger and stronger. He could potentially sit in the 95-96 mile per hour range. He features a nice slider that can become his go to pitch to strike batters out. From the windup he starts down the middle, but as he brings the left foot back, his right foot slides over to the first base side of the rubber before kicking his leg up. He repeats his delivery well, as he should be able to consistently throw strikes. His mechanics look to be of the inverted, which is the way John Smoltz threw.

Anderson is committed to Vanderbilt, but he could be a top the Pirates board if he falls, he could be the one. Anderson has dealt with an oblique injury this spring according to MLB pipeline, which can be a deterrent, but he still has the potential to be a top five arm in this high school draft class.

Kevin Gowdy is a high school arm that should be available when the Pirates make their selection. The 6’4” and 170 pound right hander from Santa Barbara High School in California has a great frame, and more of a projectable mold. His body is what about the same as the Pirates 2014 second round pick pitcher Mitch Keller, who was 6’3” and 195 pounds.

Gowdy currently sits in the low 90s, but with his frame and project ability, his fast ball has room to gain velocity and sit in the mid-90s and potentially reach upper 90s. From reports he rarely uses his changeup, but it shows flashes. He also features a slider that can become a good out pitch, and as he fills out it should pick up more velocity as well. Gowdy goes with a slow, over the head windup that is repeatable, which is always a good sign and should allow Gowdy to just pound the strike zone.

The right hander is also committed to play baseball at UCLA, the same school that produced Pirates ace Gerrit Cole. He could be a below slot pick, which could set the Pirates up for future rounds. If Gowdy is there for the picking, I could see the Pirates bucking their trend and picking a high school pitcher in the first round. He could be a below slot pick, which could set the Pirates.

Next: Groome is left hander number one, but left hander number 2

Braxton Garrett is a left handed pitcher from Florence High School in Alabama. Being left handed already makes Garrett an unlikely pick for the Pirates, as they’ve shown to not be too high on drafting lefties in the first round.

Garrett throws from what appears to be a three quarter arm slot, and is deceptive. He bends a lot and often finishes with his glove touching the dirt at times, and seems rather inconsistent, but he should remain a starter. His best pitch is his curveball, which just drops out of hand, and is nasty. He features a fastball that sits in the low 90s and looks to have a little late cut at then, and he has the room to grow, adding some velocity.

The 18 year, who does not turn 19 until August, is 6’3” and 190 pounds, and is currently committed to Vanderbilt, but has the makings of being a strong starter in the pros. I see Garrett’s ceiling being that of Drew Smyly, which any team would love, with his floor being more of a J.A. Happ, a mid-rotation left handed starter. If he is available at pick 22, the Pirates could target him, but I would be shocked, mainly because of him throwing from the left side.

Next: Comparisons drawn to Doc Gooden

Alex Speas has gotten Doc Gooden comparisons, according to MLB Pipeline, due to his body type and stuff, which is a huge comparison that would be hard to live up to. The 6’4” and 190 pound right hander from McEachern High School in Georgia, has an impressive arm.

Speas currently sits in the mid-90s, and with his frame he can end up sitting in the upper mid-90s. He also features a plus curveball which will be a plus out pitch. His athleticism really shines on the mound, and he comes from over the top in a simple, repeatable motion. His control can get a tad off every now and then, but if he learns to harness that he will be a number one starter with ease, or at the very least a shutdown reliever.

Speas not only has the stuff to look the part of a future front of the rotation starter, but he has the athleticism, and I see a Chris Archer type pitcher in him. Any pitcher who has had comparisons to Dr. K – a pitcher who was once arguably the best in the game, especially early on – are hard expectations to live up to.

I can see him being gone when the Pirates pick at 22 based off his stuff, but I expect him to fall past the Pirates. Speas could, however, be a player the Pirates envision to not being there at 41, and therefore take him at number 22, similar to what the team did with Cole Tucker in 2014.

Next: From Vintage High School in California

Jared Horn, a right handed pitcher out of Vintage High School in California, is 6’3” and 190 pounds. An added bonus is that he is still only 17 years old, but will turn 18 on July 21. The right hander is committed to California, but he has the potential to be a late first round steal.

Horn currently sits mid-90s. He throws from a higher three quarters  arm slot. He throws a curve ball that appears to be 11-5 and is better than his slider and change up. His control could be better, but should be good enough for him to be a starter. If drafted into the right organization, Horn can blossom and become a really solid and become a number two type pitcher in a rotation.

I believe that Horn is the type of pitcher who needs the right organization to be successful, and the Pirates do have that track record with arms. I don’t see him as a viable option at 22 – unless the team looks to go for under slot value for later on, which they have done before – but I think at number 41, the Pirates would come away with a nice young high school arm they can groom.  Like they have with Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, and other high school pitchers.

Next: What to expect from this

To conclude, if the Pirates want to break their seemingly standard tradition of not picking a high school arm in the first round – outside Jameson Taillon – this year’s class may be the year. There are intriguing arms that should be around when the Pirates pick. There’s only two pitchers who won’t be there in Jason Groome and Riley Pint, and Ian Anderson, Braxton Garrett, and Forest Whitley could be gone, and if not those three will be gone before the team picks again at number 41.

There are some value pitchers in Kevin Gowdy, Jared Horn, and Alex Speas who could be below value slot draftees, which can set the Pirates to go over slot with high school kids in later rounds like they have shown the tendency to do. Overall I think Forest Whitley could be the best option of high school arms for the Pirates, as he is a big right handed pitcher who throws smoke, the typical Pirates high school kid draftee.

Related Story: Pirates draft pool announced

My top eight high school arms go in the order of Jason Groome, Riley Pint, Forest Whitley, Ian Anderson, Kevin Gowdy, Braxton Garett, Alex Speas, and Jared Horn.

Next up will be a feature preview on the top eight catchers and first baseman among high schoolers.