MLB Draft Primer: The 2016 College Pitchers

2 of 6

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

The MLB Draft is just about a month away from now as the first round starts on June 9th.

The Pirates have two first round selections in the MLB Draft at number 22 and number 41. By using mlbpipeline.com, Baseball America, other stat sites, and watching games, RumBunter will be providing scouting reports on players. Specifically, players who the Pirates could look to take with their pick.

So far, David Slusser has written and posted a slide show on the prep arms to watch at the draft this year. There will be a link at the end of this article. This article will be sharing with you the top college arms that could be available for the Pirates at number 22.

The Pirates seem to have strayed away from taking prep arms. Last year, Neal Huntington and company only drafted one prep arm out of all their picks. This also included six college arms in the top ten rounds. The Pirates have not used a first round pick on a college arm since 2012 (Mark Appel who they did not sign) and in 2011 when they took Gerrit Cole. Before those two picks you have to go pre-Nel Huntingon in 2007 when they selected Clemson left-handed pitcher Daniel Moskos. The Pirates of recent have selected more position players than pitchers, but they could buck that trend this year by spending a first round pick on a deep college pitching class.

The class itself is led by Florida left-handed pitcher AJ Puk. Puk will be the top college pitcher off the board and some believe that he could go number one in the draft. Following him would be Virginia right-handed pitcher Connor Jones and Mississippi State right-hander Dakota Dudson. These three will likely to be off the board well before the Pirates pick. This article will not cover all the college arms that could be available, but rather the ones who are candidates to go at #22.

So who would be the most ideal college arm for the Pirates to pick up at #22?

Next: Not Mark Appel, but another Stanford Kid!

Hoover Tower at Stanford Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

player. 32. . Right-Handed Starting Pitcher. University of Stanford. Cal Quantrill. 1

In almost any mock draft you look out you will see Quantrill going in the ranged of 17-24. However, when you read the scouting report on him you may be confused as to why. Just 20 years of age, the Stanford pitcher has the makings of a top of the rotation candidate. His physical build is what you want in a prospect. He is six-foot-three and 190 pounds. Scouts love to see that size. He has the height of a front line guy and the weight that shows that he has not 100 percent physically filled out yet. What does that mean? He has room to put on more muscle and build up core strength, which in turn, will allow him to add to his fastball and eat up more innings.

Speaking of Quantrills fastball it already sits consistently at a speed of 93-95 miles per hour. On the 80 scale it ranks out to be his best pitch at a 60/80. He has a four pitch mix already which is a positive. His best secondary pitch might just be his change-up. He has good arms speed with it and it has a late fade deep in the zone. This is a big positive. The Pirates harp on their young pitchers about learning to throw a consistent change-up. With Quantrill already comfortably throwing one it would allow for the Pirates to get him through the lower minors quicker.

So far in his college career he has made 20 starts and one relief appearance. In those games he has 129 innings pitched, compiled a 9-5 record with a career 2.58 ERA and a solid 2.8 K/BB ratio. These are definitely strong numbers especially considering that he has pitched in the Pac-12.

So what are the negatives that will cause him to be available at number 22? everything above makes it sound like he could be a solid top 15 pick. Well there is a few reasons. First, he does have a four pitch mix, but that does not mean they all work. His slider is considered below averages, and is more used for show. This is a pitch that will need work. Second, although he has a smooth windup, he tends to extend his arm fully during his delivery which puts a lot of stress on it. This leads to the last negative about Quantrill.

Early in the 2015 season after just making 3 starts, Standford announced that Quantrill would miss the remainder of the season. What was wrong? Well of course the right-handed pitcher needed Tommy-John surgery. Because of this he missed mostly all of 2015 and has not pitched yet in 2016. Disappointing for the young prospect. Many scouts have noted that if no injury ever occurred he would have been the top college pitcher off the board.

This happened last year too. Duke’s ace Michael Matuella was projected to be one of the top players off the board, but received Tommy-John a few weeks before the draft. Because of it Matuella fell to the 2nd round. With that being said Quantrill is in a different spot. He had his surgery last March, which means he will be ready to start pitching again by the time the draft roles around. This will not cause him to slip the whole way into the 2nd round like Matuella. However, many teams will still shy away just because he has had elbow issues already. They will not want to take a player who has had his elbow worked on.

One could also compare this to Brady Aiken. Aiken was the number one overall pick in 2014. However, he received Tommy-John surgery and because of many issues did not sign. After recovering from Tommy-John, Aiken saw his stock plummet to number 17 in the 2015 draft.

If Quantrill is available at number 22 it would be a great pick up for the Pirates. Although there is risk in taking a pitcher who has had an arm injury, it is hard to find his kinda of talent at number 22. The Pirates could potentially get a top of the rotation arm while picking deep in the first round which is normally where you see college relievers and raw prep players go.

Next: A Power Arm from Georgia

Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

Robert Tyler is the ace of the Georgia Bulldogs. He is six-foot-four and 215 pounds. With that he is projected by mlbpipeline.com as the number 29 rated player in the draft. If you look at mock drafts you will see him going around 25. Tyler was considered the top pitcher in the state of Georgia in 2013. He could have joined Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier as top prospects to come out of the state. However, he had no intention on signing with an MLB and wanted to honor his commitment to the University of Georgia. This may have helped him.

At Georgia he has blossomed into a potential first round pick. What makes him so intriguing to teams? He may have the best fastball out of all starting college pitchers who will be in the draft. On MLB Pipeline’s 80 scout his fastball ranks as a 70. The thing about Tyler’s fastball is he has good command of it as well. He can place it by taking a little off, but he can also ramp it up when he feels the need to. He normally sits about 93-95 miles per hour, but while pitching for Team USA he hit 99 miles per hour.

The Bulldog also throws three other pitches. Like Quantrill, his change-up seems to be advanced. Scouting reports suggest that it has good speed and good movement. The biggest thing with his change-up will be his ability to consistently command it. Tyler also throws a plus curve-ball that he throws relatively hard and has a sharp break to it. His worst pitch is his slider, he does not have good command or movement on it. He will not need that pitch to succeed.

The biggest issue with Tyler is he may project better as a bullpen arm. He does not do a great job of repeating his mechanics. However, that would be far down the line. With his power arm and front end of the rotation build teams will give him every opportunity to start. As stated above, worst case he ends up throwing 99 miles per hour of the bullpen which would be okay too.

The Bulldogs only got six starts out of their top pitcher in 2015. Tyler had forearm tightness and so the staff at Georgia decided to shut him down rather than risk anything further. So far this year he has not had any trouble with health. He has made all eleven of his schedules starts thus far and has posted good results with a strong 3.34 ERA and raking up 76 strikeouts in 59 innings.

In Tylers’ career he has always been a strikeout guy, which makes sense with his fastball. Over 32 games (29 starts) he has a 10-9 record with a 3.29 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 169/67 or 2.52. He also has done a fantastic job of limiting base runners boasting a WHIP of 1.15.

As I said above, Tyler could end up in the bullpen in the major leagues. However, if there is one major league organization that will successfully work with him as a starter and on learning to repeat his mechanics it would be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates try to stick with talented arms as starters as long as possible. Tony Watson and Justin Wilson both were starters for most of their minor league careers. If the Pirates like the repertoire that Robert Tyler brings as a pitcher they may feel it will be worth the staff’s to grab him at number 22.

Next: Safe Pick from Vandy? Maybe Not!

Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /

Sheffield actually comes in ranked higher than Tyler on MLB Pipeline’s list, but I do not believe that Pirates would select him if he was on the board. The first red flag is that he had Tommy-John surgery in high school in 2013. With that being said he has pitched healthy since. However, what will keep the Pirates from taking him is that fact that is only six feet tall and 185 pounds.

If there is one common thing among the Pirates’ selection is that they are always projectable. They always have good height, broad shoulders, and a physical lower half. Sheffield has none of these. Yes, there is the exceptions in the league like Tim Lincecum and Marcus Stroman, and but the Pirates will not take that chance. The Pirates are an advanced metric team and metrics tell them that a six-foot-three guy is more likely to succeed in this league that an undersized player.

Does that mean Sheffield is a bad pitcher? No, in fact if not for his size he would probably be a top ten pick. He has the best three pitch mix in the draft with a fastball that sits in a range of 94-96 miles per hour. He also throws a hard slider that he gets consistent swings and misses with and he also has strong command of his circle change and gets outs with it.

Taking his advanced pitchability into account, Sheffield could be the fastest pitcher to reach the majors in the draft. Unfortunately, it will most likely be as a relief pitcher. Teams picking in the bottom of the first round and are contenders once again this year may look at him as a potential September call up to pitch out their bullpen. The Pirates would fit this mold for sure, but the Pirates also cannot give up first round picks for players they plan on using as relievers.

Next: A Project Arm

Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports /

Last year the Pirates took Kevin Newman and Ke’Bryan Hayes with their first round picks. Both these players were considered late rising prospects who were moving up draft boards as the day approached. Cody Sedlock from the University of Illinois is one of the college arms that has risen in the last few months. He is ranked number 32 on MLB Pipeline. He has the frame that everyone loves at six-foot-four and 215 pounds.

Sedlock did not have a clear path to starting for the Illini in his freshmen and sophomore season. Because of this he pitched out of the bullpen for the team. However, this past summer Sedlock made the transition from the bullpen back to starting in the Cape Cod League. He was very impressive according to scouts.

Showing that he could be an effective starter, Sedlock was given an opportunity to do so this year for the Illini. So far this year he has made 12 starts. He is 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA. Beyond those numbers he is even more impressive, his WHIP is a 1.14, and he has a K/BB ratio of 3.88.

So why is he ranked lower in the first round? Those numbers are more impressive than the other players mentioned, but there is one key reason why he is not rated as high. This is because he was a reliever his first two years at Illinois. Essentially teams do not have a big enough sample size to go off of. Some teams are questioning whether or not he can be a starter at the big league level. Even if they do believe he can they know there is a lot of work to go into him as he has a lack of experience as a starter.

The Pirates could take him at number22. First he most likely would sign for lower than the bonus slot. Second, the Pirates have plenty of pitching in the upper minors and would be able take the time to develop him as a starter. The last reason the Pirates could have interest in him is because his best pitch is a sinker. His sinker sits 91-93 miles per hour. The Pirates love pitchers who throw fastballs with movements on it. The fact that he already throws an effective senior would make him an attractive option for the Pirates. He also throws a curve ball and change-up. Neither are considered plus pitches, but the pitches do show positive signs. He will need to continue to develop them and become more comfortable with throwing them.

Sedlock seems to be the biggest project pitcher our of the four mentioned. However, the Pirates typically like to take the project players. They view those types of players as easy to mold. If they take a polished college arm they may not have a lot of flexibility in changing the way they pitch. Sedlock is raw as a starter, but has the proven this year that he can be an effective in doing so. If the Pirates feel that they can develop him then picking him number 22 would not be much of a reach.

Next: What is most logical?

Mark Appel was the last pitcher taken in the first round by the PIrates in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

As mentioned earlier, the Pirates do not take a lot of college pitchers in the first round. In the Huntington era they have only taken two in Gerrit Cole and Mark Appel. In recent year they have not take pitching in the first round at all. Since 2013 they have taken all position players, including two position players in 2013.

The Pirates drafting philosophy seems to be to take the premium bats available, then take an abundance of pitching in the later rounds. On the last slide it was said that the Pirates like to mold their pitchers. By taking raw, projectable pitchers in the middle round the Pirates feel they can develop those pitchers just as well as a first rounder.

More from Rum Bunter

Who is to argue they are wrong? The Pirates have shown this by developing plenty of middle round draft picks into solid prospects. Tyler Glasnow was a 5th round pick in 2011, Nick Kingham was a 4th round pick in 2011, Clay Holmes was a 9th round pick in 2011, and Brandon Waddell and JT Brubaker in the fifth and sixth round last year. None were considered top prospects when drafted, but all had a common theme. They were all tall, projectable pitchers, with good arms and chances to develop in the minors.

Related Story: High School Arms

So what is most likely? Well if we look at the Pirates trends they will likely look away from pitching with their #22 pick. They will likely look for an elite hitter. However, there is the chance that they Pirates buck the trend and decide with so much pitching in the upper minors that it is time to replenish the lower minors with a top prospect. Really it is hard to predict. You never know who will fall in the draft and who will make a late rise on draft day. There is plenty of upside college arms that could be available at number 22, any of the players in the article would be a great addition to the system.

Home / Pirates Draft