Pittsburgh Pirates Finish Road-trip with Four Games in Miami

The Pittsburgh Pirates finish their road trip in Miami for a 4 game series with the Marlins. Read on for a preview of the series:

Marlins Record: 26-24 (4^th in NL East)

Last Series Result: Lost 2 of 3 against the Atlanta Braves

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1 – May 30, 7:10 P.M. EDT

Jeff Locke (L) (3-3) vs. Justin Nicolino (L) (2-2)

Game 2 – May 31, 7:10 P.M. EDT

Gerrit Cole (R) (5-3) vs. Jose Fernandez (R) (7-2)

Game 3 – June 1, 7:10 P.M. EDT

Jon Niese (L) (5-2) vs. Adam Conley (L) (3-3)

Game 4 – June 2, 7:10 P.M. EDT

Juan Nicasio (R) (4-4) vs. Wei-Yin Chen (L) (3-2)

The Miami Marlins have been a bit of a surprise this season. With a winning record through the first almost two months of the season, the Marlins find themselves just three and a half games out of first place in a crowded NL East. The team as a whole has a profile similar to the Pittsburgh Pirates, good offense, despite not an abundance of power, and disappointing pitching. The Marlins are slashing .274/.333/.419 (3^rd/6^th/11^th in MLB) and have a .752 OPS (10^th in MLB).

The significant area of their offense where they differ from the Pirates comes from their relative inability to draw walks. They currently have 146 walks as a team, which puts them at 20^th in baseball. Over one-third of the team’s walks also come from just two players (Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich with 25 each).

Another similarity between the Marlins and the Pirates has to do with their overall excellent outfield. The Marlins corps are made up of Christian Yelich in left, Marcell Ozuna in center and Giancarlo Stanton in right. There will be more on Ozuna, who is currently leading the Marlins’ offensive attack below.

Giancarlo Stanton, who is currently day-to-day, but will likely return during this lengthy series, has had a bit of a slow start to the season. He’s currently only batting .214 and his strikeouts are way up this year (33.5 K% in 2016 compared with 28.6 K% for his career). These numbers should raise as he currently has a low BABIP of .256. He also of course remains a home run threat, with 12 on the season so far.

Christian Yelich is less of a household name, but is enjoying a bit of a breakout year, slashing .314/.414/.510 with his walks up and his strikeouts down compared with his career and 2015 rates. Also, his five home runs this season are already over halfway to his career high of nine in 2014.

Marlins’ everyday catcher J.T. Realmuto and third baseman Martin Prado have also been significant contributors from the plate. Prado is currently second on the team with a .326 batting average and Realmuto’s .294 is fourth. 

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Meanwhile, the Marlins pitching staff is led by ace Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is currently leading the team with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP among qualified pitchers. Additionally, his FIP and xFIP are actually outperforming his ERA at 2.34 and 2.53 respectively. Luckily for the Pirates, they will have their own ace in Gerrit Cole going against him when they face Fernandez. Beyond that, the rotation is a bit thin, with only Wei-Yin Chen having as many as the six quality starts Fernandez has and none with a WHIP below 1.27.

Recent Meetings

Last season the Pittsburgh Pirates got the better of the Miami Marlins, beating them in six of the seven games between the two teams. The first time they met in Pittsburgh in late May, the Pirates swept the Marlins over a three game series. When the Pirates went to Miami in late August, the Pirates took three games of a four game series, with the Marlins’ only win over the Pirates last season coming in a 5-2 victory on August 25. Overall the Pirates outscored the Marlins 30-15.

Marlins Player to Watch: Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has been the surprising leader of the Marlins offense through the first couple months of 2016. For the season he is slashing .344/.392/.598 with an OPS of .990 and ten home runs. Additionally, his wRC+ is 164 and his wOBA is .419. All of these numbers are significant improvements on his career averages for these stats. His career slashline is .275/.321/.439 with an OPS of .760, while his wRC+ is 109 and his wOBA is .331. While these numbers are decent, they are nowhere near the MVP caliber production that he has delivered thus far in 2016.

The key explanation for this vast improvement likely lies in his .404 BABIP, as his walk and strikeout rates are similar to his career rates and his line drive percentage and hard hit percentage are also comparable. This indicates that his averages will likely revert over the season, but probably not enough to prevent this from being a breakout year for the 25 year old. The amount of regression Ozuna sees will determine whether the Marlins can keep pace in the crowded NL East.

Pirates Keys to Victory

Keep Stanton and Ozuna in the Park

Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna have a combined 22 home runs between the two of them, nearly half of the team’s 46 total. If Pirates’ pitchers can keep them from hitting the long ball, it will prevent the Marlins from scoring easy runs and give the Pirates the best chance of winning this series.

Find a Way to Beat Fernandez

The Miami Marlins pitching is generally subpar, except for Jose Fernandez. If the Pittsburgh Pirates can hit him well or at least keep in close until Marlins go to the bullpen, they have a great chance of winning this game and the series as a result.

Next: Sabermetrics Sunday: FIP

No Free Baserunners

It may be hard enough to get outs against the Marlins without allowing walks. Pirates’ pitchers are still having issues with walking batters, despite an overall improvement. Going in the Pirates favor for this one is that the Marlins do not walk a lot.

Series Prediction

I find it a near-pointless endeavor to attempt to predict the outcome of not just one baseball game, but a series of three as well. However, I will do so because it’s fun and I’ve always mentally tried to do it at the beginning of every series anyways. While the Marlins and Pirates are similar teams, the Pirates are just a little better. Their lineup is deeper from top to bottom and the pitching is improving and more than just one ace. Additionally, despite the series loss to the Rangers, these are two teams generally trending in different directions. The Miami Marlins are 4-5 in their last 9 and dropped two of three to the woeful Atlanta Braves. Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Pirates are 6-3 in the same span and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. I see the Pirates winning this series.

Prediction: Pirates 3-1

*Stats courtesy of Fangraphs, baseball reference, mlb.com, and espn.com