Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central Rivals: Milwaukee Brewers

The most interesting move the Brewers made this offseason was signing 30-year-old Eric Thames out of Korea. Thames was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 and made his Major League debut for them in 2011. Over the next couple years, Thames bounced between Triple-A and the Majors. He also bounced between teams, spending time in the Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, and Astros organizations. During his first stint in the Majors Thames struck out too often (25.6%), almost never walked (5.6%), and didn’t hit for enough power to make up for it (.182 ISO).

After spending all of 2013 in the minor leagues, Thames signed with the NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization where he has been ever since. He has been stellar during his time in Korea, winning KBO MVP in 2015. The Brewers are obviously hoping that Thames was able to work through his strikeout and walk issues in Korea. Additionally, the degree to which his power translates from Korea back to the Majors will go a long way towards determining how the Brewers season goes.

Signing Thames wasn’t the only move that the Brewers made to bolster their infield. During the Winter Meetings, they dealt reliever Tyler Thornburg for three players. While the package includes prospects Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington, the most impactful player for 2017 will be Third Baseman, Travis Shaw. The 26-year-old made his debut in 2015 and will be entering his 2^nd full season this year. Shaw had an impressive debut, slashing .270/.327/.487 with 13 Home Runs in 65 games in 2015. Over his first full season last year though he could not follow it up, slashing .242/.306/.421 with 16 Home Runs in 145 games.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, they’re more likely to get the 2016 version of Travis Shaw. This is because the biggest contributor to his drop-off was his hitting for less power (.217 to .179 ISO). This drop-off, given his young age, was likely due to his seeing a decrease in his HR/FB rate (17.8% to 10.3%) while his overall Fly Ball percentage didn’t change significantly (42.7% to 44.6%). This combined with a modest increase in his Hard% (29.2% to 33.3%) indicates that he was lucky in 2015 and that 2016 was a regression to what can be expected more typically for Shaw. Working in his and the Brewers’ favor though is that he is still only 26 and should yet have room to grow.

Much like the Cincinnati Reds, the Brewers have a longtime outfielder who they’re hoping will still be productive when they come out the other side of the current rebuild. For the Brewers that would be left fielder Ryan Braun. Last season, the polarizing slugger had his best season since finishing second in MVP voting in 2012, slashing .305/.365/.538 with 30 Home Runs. Despite being well into his 30’s now, it is unlikely that Braun will see a sudden massive drop-off in production this season. Because of this, he is likely to torture Pirate pitching again this season.

Joining him in the Outfield will be former Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana. Both players are similar in that they are young, streaky, strike out a lot (36.1% and 32.4% in 2016 respectively), and could be due for breakout seasons in 2017. Because of this, the Brewers may have the potential to have an even better outfield than the Pirates in 2017. Broxton was acquired in the 2015-2016 offseason along with former second-round pick Trey Supak.  Coming back to the Pittsburgh Pirates was first baseman, Jason Rogers.  So far Broxton has seen more time for the Brewers than Rogers has for the Pirates. Meanwhile, Santana was a key piece in the deal that sent Carlos Gomez to the Houston Astros at the 2015 trade deadline.

Pitching last season for the Brewers was subpar as a whole, with the team collectively having a 1.38 WHIP (23^rd in MLB) and a .263 Batting Average Against (24^th in MLB). Unfortunately for the Brewers, they dealt their best reliever, Tyler Thornburg (0.94 WHIP and .162 BAA in 2016). His lost production in the bullpen should at least partly be made up for by the signing of former Pirate Neftali Feliz.

As for the Brewers rotation, nothing has changed from last year. The late blossoming Junior Guerra (32 years old) is looking to have a successful follow-up to his breakout 2016 season which saw him post a 1.13 WHIP and .211 BAA over 121.2 innings pitched. Additionally, Zach Davies is looking to build upon a moderately successful rookie campaign that saw him post a 1.25 WHIP, .260 BAA, and a 3.89 FIP. If the 24-year-old can take a significant step in his development this season, the Brewers rotation will be a lot more solidified.

Overall, the Brewers have a lot of unknown variables at work going into this season. It’s unlikely that they will all work in the Brewers favor, though. If Thames’ production translates from Korea, Shaw develops and sees an improved performance, Santana and Broxton have breakout years, and the rotation solidifies, then the Brewers could contend for one of the Wild Card spots. However, the most probable way this season ends for the Brewers though is another losing season and a likely 4^th place finish.

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Despite this, the Pittsburgh Pirates have a history of having difficulties against the Brewers. Last season the Pirates did have a winning record against Milwaukee but only just, going 10-9. Overall, they only have a .500 record against them (38-38) since 2013. This despite the Pirates putting out three playoff teams and the Brewers generally having bad teams during this span.

Theoretically, the Pirates schedule against the Brewers should benefit them as they are stacked towards the end of the season. As with the Reds, the Brewers could be out of contention with little to play for by then. This could benefit the Pirates who may have a chance to amass much-needed wins down the stretch to earn a playoff berth. The Pirates don’t meet the Brewers until the second month of the season (May 5^th in Pittsburgh). Because of this, the Pirates should have an idea about whether the Pirates will see the expected lackluster Brewers or the best case version I mentioned above.

Next: Pirates Top Prospect Rankings

*Stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference

*Offseason additions and departures courtesy of espn.com