Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects: Ranking 12-7

#12, Catcher, Elias Diaz

The Pirates signed Elias Diaz in 2009 as an 18-year-old.  He is now entering his age 26 season playing in a grand total of three Major League games.  Unless Francisco Cervelli or Chris Stewart go down with an injury in 2017, Diaz won’t see much time until September.

This offseason I wrote about Diaz, and the final conclusion was:

“With his bat lacking and his age, Diaz is a backup catcher or a weak starting catcher.  If the Pirates keep Chris Stewart around for the next two seasons, Diaz is better off served being thrown into a trade even though his value is probably low, but he might be a more valuable trade option for the Pirates than a young, low level minor league throw in prospect.”

His bat contributes to this as well.  Diaz posted a 128 wRC+ in 2013 and followed that with a 129 wRC+ with the Curve in 2014.  His time in Indianapolis in 2015 saw him post a 106 wRC+, and in an injury-riddled 2016, Diaz played in just 35 games.

His defense remains solid, though he did post negative framing runs last season (small sample).  But given his age and empty bat, which projects to be below league average especially given his size, his prospect status ranks lower now than in year priors.  However, given Cervelli’s injury history, there’s a good chance Diaz will play in Pittsburgh, his impact will just be rather low.

#11, Left Handed Pitcher, Taylor Hearn

The Pirates drafted Hearn in the 22nd round in 2012 out of Royse City High School (Texas).  He did not sign and was ultimately drafted each year through 2015, at which point the Washington Nationals selected him in the fifth round out of Oklahoma Baptist University.  The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Hearn in the Mark Melancon deal last July.

The left-hander, who does not turn 23 until August, has not pitched past full season A ball yet.  Hearn has dealt with injuries in the past as Bill Ladson of MLB.com points out

“When he was attending Royse City High School in Royse City, Texas, Hearn strained his ulnar collateral ligament. During his freshman year in college, he had two stress fractures in his humerus bone, and a screw was put in to stabilize the elbow.”

Despite all these injuries, it is his stuff that makes him intriguing.  MLB Pipeline’s description of Hearn demonstrates the stuff, but also concerns:

“Hearn has relied heavily on his fastball thus far in his career. It’s a good one, at 97-98 mph consistently, but he would throw it 95 percent of the time and his command of it has been poor. If he could throw it in the zone, he’d miss bats, if it was out of the zone, the walks would pile up. His slider has a chance to be above-average, but he needs to commit to it more. He has a below-average changeup that needs a good amount of work.”

We can see this in the numbers.  In his 30 games in the minor leagues, Hearn has started only 18.  He has pitched to a 2.98 ERA and 3.28 FIP, mainly because of his 28.2 percent strikeout rate.  Hearn misses bats, but he does walk 8.9 percent of hitters.  For reference, Francisco Liriano in his big league career has only walked 8.2 percent of hitters.

We rate Hearn highly because of his velocity and ability to miss bats.  If never develops a third pitch he won’t become a starter.  If he is regulated to the bullpen on a full-time basis, Hearn can use his fastball and slider combo and fit an Andrew Miller type mold.  That provides value, and almost makes Hearn a top 10 prospect.

#10, Shortstop Cole Tucker

The Pirates took Cole Tucker in the first round of the 2014 draft and signed him to a $1.8 million signing bonus.  It was a surprise pick, and in fact was below value.  Four of the last six first round picks by the Pirates have been infielders, and one of those who has not is now at third base in Connor Joe.  This trend was started by Tucker in 2014 after he was the first infielder taken by Huntington in round one since his first draft when he took Pedro Alvarez with the second overall pick.

Tucker tore his labrum in 2015, and he missed the last two months of that season and April of 2016.  His return season did not go well, posting an 84 wRC+ in 396 plate appearances.  In the final two months of 2016, he was even worse, posting a wRC+ of 51.  But he was coming off a torn labrum.

Despite the shoulder surgery, Tucker should stick at short defensively.  He has the range to play it and provides speed on the offensive side.  His bat is a concern, as he has not shown much offensively yet.  He possesses a 6’3″ and an 185-pound frame, giving him room to add power, something he currently lacks.

Tucker is only 20, and won’t turn 21 until July.  Kevin Newman has passed him on the organizational depth chart, and if Newman can stick at short, Tucker will likely be moved to another position.  His offense needs improvement, and hopefully, a full season of health can help that.  To me, he seems like a future backup, but given his draft position just three years ago and his young age, he ranks in our top 10.

#9, Left Handed Pitcher, Steven Brault

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired the Regis University product and another arm in Stephen Tarpley in February of 2015 when the team dealt Travis Snider to the Baltimore Orioles.  The 2013 11th round pick flew through the minors and made his Major League debut last season against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Brault ended up pitching in eight games last season for the Pirates, seven of those he started.  His 121 ERA- and 126 FIP- (small sample) were in line with Jeff Locke‘s 135 ERA- and 120 FIP-.  Brault didn’t really help the club, and he was rather inefficient.  He averaged just 4.5 innings per start and walked 10.2 percent of the hitters he faced.

The potential is still there for the 25-year-old to be a quality backend starter, and he could very easily fill that role coming out of spring.  He relies on three pitches, a fastball, slider, and changeup.  Last season in the big leagues he only threw the changeup 8.5 percent of the time, but as continues to grow and develop, he will need that third offering, especially against right-handed hitters.

Brault is said to have better command than he showed in the majors last season, he was in the zone only 41.3 percent of the time.  He’s shown control in the minors in the past, but he did walk 11.2 percent of hitters he faced in Indianapolis in 2016.

Brault’s floor is high, despite a very low ceiling.  He will be a backend starter for years to come, and that can happen this year.  Brault has a great chance to impact the Pirates this season, and if he does not make the roster out of spring training, he likely will be the first one called up for injury or ineffectiveness.  This proximity to the big leagues also helps him be ranked in our top 10.

#8, Right Handed Pitcher, Nick Kingham

The Pirates drafted Kingham in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. He was one of nine pitchers – seven from high school – that the Pirates took with their first 10 picks that year.  Kingham, who is from Las Vegas, would have already made his Major League debut if it was not for Tommy John surgery in 2015.

After a start against the New York Yankees this spring, co-editor Nick wrote this about Kingham:

“The pitch he threw the most was a two-seam fastball.  The fastball sat at 93 miles per hour, but his velocity ranged from 91-95 through his two innings. After his fastball, Kingham used his changeup the most.  It looked like a circle-change coming out of his hand, and faded down and in against righties as a circle change does.  It looked like a plus pitch, he mainly threw it from 85-86 miles per hour.  There is enough movement and enough variance in speed from his fastball that it should be a plus pitch for him as he develops. The last pitch to look at is his curveball.  Coming up through the minors, Kingham’s curveball has always been seen as a plus pitch.  It is similar to Jameson Taillon’s where it moves in a 12-6 direction.  It has relatively big break, and it looks like a pitch that will freeze hitters, or they will swing over the top of it pounding it into a ground ball out or a swing and miss. This pitch mainly sat in the low 80s, hitting 81 numerous times.”

While Kingham won’t sit in the mid-90s despite being 6’6″, he does possess a fastball with nice movement.  His changeup is his next best pitch, and he will throw the pitch more than his curveball, and MLB Pipeline called it his “bread and butter pitch.”  His hook is his worst pitch, and as Nick noticed it breaks 12-6, and it will be an above average pitch for him going forward.  However, do not expect it to be as good as Jameson Taillon’s bender.  His stuff plays well, and he should be a middle of the rotation arm for the Pirates.

Kingham has the potential to be up in June (Super 2), and he will have a larger impact than Steven Brault or Trevor Williams.  Look for Kingham to follow the same path as Taillon did, starting the year in Indianapolis, making the Majors, and skipping a start here and there.

#7, Third Baseman, Ke’Bryan Hayes

After taking Kevin Newman with their first pick, the Pirates selected Ke’Bryan Hayes at pick number 32.  The now 20-year-old was drafted out of Concordia Lutheran High School in Texas. Also, he is the son of former Pirate Charlie Hayes.

Ke’Bryan only posted a 106 wRC+ last season, but he did deal with injuries, as a back injury sidelined him most of July and August.  He only played in two games in August before he was shut down for the season.

Hayes does make solid contact and he should develop more power as he matures.  At just 19 years old, and a -2.4 year age differential, Hayes did post a .130 ISO for West Virginia, showing he has projectable power and will develop more as he grows.

Hayes possesses good hands and a strong arm, which should allow him to stay at third base in the future, and he can develop into being more than that.  MLB Pipeline says,

“Hayes nonetheless has the footwork and range, not to mention excellent hands, instincts and a plus arm to be an above-average defender at the hot corner.”

While he will never be a Nolan Arendao or Adrian Beltre, Hayes developing into an above average defensive third baseman will be huge for the Pirates.

Getting Hayes healthy again and letting his bat further develop will be huge in 2017.  He is the best third base prospect in the system. Furthermore, he has the potential to be an everyday starter for the club.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have options when it comes to starting pitching depth.  We’ve seen Steven Brault already make his Major League debut.  He is in current competition for the Pirates five-spot in the rotation, and if he is sent back to Indianapolis he will be the first one to see action.  Nick Kingham would already be in Pittsburgh if it were not for Tommy John.  He has the potential to be a solid number three starter mixing his fastball, changeup, and curve.

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Taylor Hearn throws gas with a solid slider.  He misses bats, but also has control issues.  Unless he starts pounding the zone and develops a third pitch, he will end up in the pen.  His value in the pen has the potential to be high.  He can become a fireman type reliever, and do what Andrew Miller did for the Indians in the 2016 postseason.

Elias Diaz is a backup catcher, and will serve as the team’s third catcher and will start for Indianapolis. His bat lacks, but his defense remains solid.  If Cervelli or Stewart go down, Diaz will be up.  Between Brault, Kingham, and Diaz, Diaz has the potential to impact the team the least, but he might be more important than those two.

Cole Tucker and Ke’Bryan Hayes are former first round picks.  Tucker was coming off an injury and Hayes got injured.  Their offense suffered last season as a result.  But Tucker provides speed and defense, and if the bat develops could become an average starter.  Hayes has a better bat than Tucker and will develop more power.  He has the defense to stay at third and should become a regular for the Pirates.

Next: Pirates Still on Quintana

Next Up

Our final installment will be prospects 6-1. These are the high-end prospects who have the highest ceilings. Nick will have them covered in the coming days. The list should be no shock, as everybody is familiar with the remaining players.

Previous Prospect Rankings

30-25 Prospects 

24-19 Prospects 

18-13 Prospects