Pittsburgh Pirates Rum Bunter Staff 2017 Predictions: David

The Pittsburgh Pirates season starts on Monday, Gerrit Cole will take the ball against 2016 American League CY Young winner Rick Porcello.  It will be the first game of actual importance, with the last coming 183 days before (from opening day) when the Pirates fell 10-4 to the St. Louis Cardinals.  The season is starting, so it’s time for the Rum Bunter staff to make their predictions for 2017.

The 2016 season started off well. The Pittsburgh Pirates won their first four games, a Jordy Mercer walk off in game two and a Starling Marte grand slam in the top of the eighth down three in game four helped that start.  But after dropping to the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 on April 10, the Pirates never reached first place again.  Until May 1, the Pirates were one to four games behind the Cubs, and on May 1 they were only three back, but they never got closer.  A 29-22 start was erased after a 9-19 June, and the season was a battle after that.

Pitching

The Pirates pitching staff, a strength of the team for many years, imploded.  Francisco Liriano produced a 136 ERA- and 131 FIP-, both adjusted for park and league, for the Pirates in 21 starts, and he walked 13.2 percent of the hitters he saw, he was traded for Drew Hutchison.  Jon Niese, acquired for Neil Walker, had a 122 ERA- and 133 FIP-, he was sent to the bullpen before being dealt for Antonio Bastardo.  Jeff Locke posted a 135 ERA- and 120 FIP-, he was later moved to the bullpen.  After a great spring, Juan Nicasio posted a 145 ERA- and 122 FIP- in his first 12 starts with a relief appearance sprinkled in.  Nicasio was moved to the bullpen, but he found success like he did in 2015 with Los Angeles.

Struggles at the Plate

Between June and July, John Jaso posted a wRC+ of 60 and Andrew McCutchen was hardly any better with a mark of 69.  Gregory Polanco started the season off hot, but in the second half posted a wRC+ of 80.  Jung Ho Kang, who started off the season injured, featured a 54-day stretch starting in June of an 87 wRC+, he was again placed on the disabled list.

The team started off strong and then faltered.  But it is a new season, and that brings new hope.  Here are my predictions, co-editors Marty and Nick will follow in the coming days with their predictions, for the 2017 Pirates.

MVP

Easiest choice would be Gerrit Cole, where he goes the team goes, but I’ll save that name for later. The second easiest would be Starling Marte, who I predicted last year:

“After another strong campaign in 2015, hitting .287/.337/.444, Starling Marte will continue to prove why he is a top left fielder in the Major Leagues. He will post career bests in slugging and home runs, while maintaining his elite defensive prowess in left field. Marte is a star in the making, and this year the 27-year-old will not only be the Pirates MVP, he’ll look to compete and finish in the top 5 in the National League MVP race.

He ended up posting career highs in on-base and slugging, but posted his second least amount of home runs (2012 was his lowest, 47 games).  He didn’t finish top five in the MVP race, finishing 49th in BWARP.  He’s a strong bet to be the most valuable this year, especially now that he will be in center instead of left.  But he’s not my pick.

Francisco Cervelli will be the team’s most valuable.  In 2016 he finished 97th in BWARP, but when adjusted for plate appearances he finished 60th, good but not great.  After a season with an 119 wRC+ in 2015, he was at 99 (1 percent below average) last year.  He’s still an on-base machine, a .377 OBP, but his power was absent, as he posted a .058 ISO.

In 2015 his exit velocity was 88.1 miles per hour with a 7.3-degree launch angle.  Last season it was 86.6 and 7.5 respectively.  Part of that exit velocity can be contributed to breaking his Hammett bone, as, before June 10, the day he broke it, Cervelli’s exit velocity was 89 mph.  Will a fully healed bone allow him to tap back into that power and see the offensive performance we saw in 2015?  If so, he’ll be the Pirates most valuable when you factor in his pitch framing, which was good enough for seventh best despite missing time.

CY Young

Is Gerrit Cole an ace?  That’s up to interpretation. Of course, he’s seventh in FIP- the last two seasons, better than Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Price, Madison Bumgarner, etc.  He’s 16th in ERA-, 14th among the top 30 in FIP-, but his ERA- is better than Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, and Carlos Carrasco.  Yes, he does not average that many innings per start, he ranks 22nd among the top 30 in FIP-.  His 6.11 innings per start the last two years is similar to Carlos Carrasco (6.0), Noah Syndergaard (6.16), Carlos Martinez (6.17), and Chris Archer (6.17).  It’s up to interpretation, there’s no set definition.

Cole was an All-Star in 2015 and struggled last season with various injuries.  But what is often forgotten is through August 7th, Cole had a 73 ERA- and 71 FIP-.  He struggled his next three starts, opponents did post a .459 BAbip, however, opponents did hit the ball 90.7 mph off of Cole during that time.  He was placed on the disabled list, made one disastrous start, and was shut down again.

Cole is healthy once again and that is a good sign.  When he is pitching well the team will do well when he’s not, they will struggle.  Cole will bounce back and be 2015 Cole again.  He is one of the best pitchers in the game, when healthy.

Breakout

Is a pitcher who posted a 69 FIP- in 2015, an 85 FIP- in 2016, and struck out  28.1 percent of hitters last season a breakout candidate?  If so, Felipe Rivero will be that breakout guy.  When I wrote about the Pirates bullpen and their changeup, I mentioned this about Rivero,

Rivero’s changeup last season produced 79 whiffs on 137 swings, a whiff rate of 57.7 percent, and right-handed hitters had a whiff percentage of 59.52 percent against the changeup.  Not only did opponents whiff more times than not, Rivero kept them from doing damage when the ball was put into play.  The .213 slugging and 0.082 ISO ranked eighth and 19th best last season. Last season Rivero used his changeup 21.20 percent of the time, way up from the 4.73 percent in 2015.

Despite what happened in Rio de Janeiro, his changeup is unhittable.  Furthermore, his fastball averages 97, and left-handed hitters have whiffed 42.53 percent of the time when they swung against his slider.  Rivero is still only 25, won’t be 26 until July.  Rivero’s ability to strikeout hitters can allow the Pirates to use him in high leverage situations without a defined role (Hudson in the eighth and Watson in the ninth).  If he counts as a breakout, Felipe Rivero will be the one to breakout.

This pick was the most challenging, as Jameson Taillon is in the same boat as Rivero.  Tyler Glasnow might put everything together, meaning just average control, and become a top of the rotation arm.  Josh Bell with a full season and added power with a more athletic frame is also a very strong option to consider.

Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates should be a competitive ball club in 2017.  They competed for most of 2016, falling out in September, with a pitching staff that struggled.  McCutchen will be better, and if not the season will be a total flop.  On the downside, Jung Ho Kang won’t play for time period x. Meanwhile, Gregory Polanco is currently hung up with a shoulder injury and a passport issue.

But the Cardinals are worse than they were last season.  The Marlins pitching staff is… something.  The Mets will be without Steven Matz for at least a month.  Furthermore, Zack Wheeler hasn’t pitched with health for a couple of years, and Matt Harvey is no longer Matt Harvey.  With an improved pitching staff, without really any outside additions, the Pirates overall record should be too.

Francisco Cervelli might not be the popular name thrown around as being the most valuable to the Pirates.  Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte, and Andrew McCutchen will be thrown out there.  But the Pirates need Cervelli to be healthy.  He’s one of the best pitch framers in baseball and is a large help to the Pirates pitching staff.  Getting closer to 2015 offensive production is a big key to the Pirates returning to success.

Next: Pirates Make or Break Candidates

Felipe Rivero might have already broken out, in Pittsburgh at least, but nationally he will too.  His pitch arsenal is nasty, and nobody has shown the ability to really touch his changeup.  If used like Andrew Miller in 2016 postseason, Rivero will be a household name.

Marty and Nick will have their predictions in the next few days. Baseball is almost back.

*Numbers from Fangraphs and baseball savant