Predicting The Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day Roster

The starting eight

The starting eight for the Pittsburgh Pirates is set in stone. This is despite it not being the starting eight they thought they would be sporting when Spring Training began. That is due to the visa issues of Jung Ho Kang.

Despite the absence, and potential loss, of Kang the Pirates project to have a very strong offense in 2017. From left-to-right, the infield will be David Freese, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, and Josh Bell. The newly aligned outfield will have Gregory Polanco in left field, Starling Marte in center field, and Andrew McCutchen in right field. And catcher Francisco Cervelli rounds out the starting eight.

The only question that remains is how will Clint Hurdle construct his lineup. Last week, I discussed how he *should* construct here. That does not mean that this is how it will be constructed.

Each of the past three seasons the Pirates have finished in the top-six in the National League in runs scored. A good, deep lineup combined with a strong bench should give the Pirates one of the league’s best offenses once again in 2017.

The bench

For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bench remains unsettled. Three players are locks to be members of the bench on Opening Day. These three players are Adam Frazier, Chris Stewart (if healthy), and John Jaso.

Adam Frazier will be the Pirates’ top super utility man as Frazier can play third base, shortstop, second base, and the corner outfield positions. John Jaso will primarily be the team’s backup first baseman and go to pinch hitter, however, he can also play third base and some right field. Meanwhile, for the fourth consecutive season, Chris StTewart will be the team’s backup backstop.

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This leaves two spots on the Pirate bench. Currently, the Pirates have six players still in camp that are “competing” for this spot. The reason that competing was put in quotes is because three of these players have no shot at making the team.

These three players are catchers Jackson Williams and Jacob Stallings, and outfielder Danny Ortiz. The only reason these players are still in camp is due to the Pirates taking it easy on Chris Stewart (hamstring) and Gregory Polanco (shoulder) the final week of camp.

Ultimately, that leaves three players competing for two spots. Utility men Alen Hanson and Phil Gosselin, and first baseman/outfielder Jose Osuna are these three players.

In the end, Pirate fans can expect the final two bench spots to go to Hanson and Gosselin. And this is for two different reasons.

First off, Alen Hanson is out of options. Therefore, he can not be sent to Triple-A without first clearing waivers. This combined with a strong spring most likely guarantees him a spot on the bench.

Secondly, the Pirates need a backup shortstop. Out of the three bench players being discussed that can play shortstop (Adam Frazier, Alen Hanson, and Phil Gosselin) Gosselin is the best of the three. For this reason, Gosselin will most likely earn the other bench spot.

Jose Osuna is the best hitter of these three players and has the highest ceiling as a Major League hitter. He will almost assuredly make his Major League debut at some point in 2017. That debut, however, most likely will not come as being part of the Opening Day roster.

The starting five 

Gerrit Cole will pitch Opening Day for the Pittsburgh Pirates. In game two, Clint Hurdle will hand the ball to Jameson Taillon. Chad Kuhl will pitch the series finale in Boston, and then Ivan Nova will pitch the home opener next Friday.

This leaves one spot up for grabs in the Pirate starting rotation. The battle for this spot is a two-man race between Trevor Williams and Tyler Glasnow.

Tyler Glasnow has the higher ceiling of the two. In fact, as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, there is no limit to Glasnow’s ceiling. However, the question remains, can he throw quality strikes enough to be in the Major Leagues?

While he is a much less ballyhooed prospect, he is a fine prospect in his own right. Additionally, Trevor Williams had a great spring for the Pirates.

So, who will the Bucs go with?

Make no mistake about it, the Pirate brass wants Tyler Glasnow to take this final rotation spot and never look back. He has flashed a lot of good things this spring, however, he has also flashed major control issues at times. Due to this, the Pirates must ask if more time at Triple-A to work on repeating his delivery would benefit Glasnow.

Ultimately, I expect Trevor Williams to open the season as the Pirates’ fifth starting pitcher. Personally, I would go with Glasnow but I believe the Pirates will roll with Williams.

Trevor Williams has the ability to be a strong backend of the rotation starting pitcher in the Major Leagues. Combine this with a strong spring and Tyler Glasnow still having some control issues, and I expect Williams to be the final arm in the rotation on Monday.

Five spots down, two to go

Five of the seven spots in the Pirate bullpen are set in stone. The five pitchers guaranteed spots in the bullpen are Antonio Bastardo, Daniel Hudson, Felipe Rivero, Juan Nicasio, and Tony Watson.

As for the other two spots, it is a competition between three pitchers. A.J. Schugel, Tyler Webb, and Wade LeBlanc are these three pitchers. Schugel is a right-handed pitcher, while Webb and LeBlanc are both southpaws.

Of the five relievers currently locked into the bullpen, three (Antonio Bastardo, Felipe Rivero, and Tony Watson) are left-handed pitchers. It is highly unlikely that the Pirates take five left-handed relievers north. For this reason, it is unlikely that both Tyler Webb and Wade LeBlanc make the team.

The two relievers I expect to earn these final two bullpen spots are A.J. Schugel and Wade LeBlanc. When it comes to Schugel, him making the team is a no-brainer. In 2016 Schugel posted very strong numbers (3.19 FIP, 7.96 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9) in 52 innings pitched for the Pirates.

Additionally, Schugel’s changeup is one of the best in baseball. This makes his changeup a great weapon.

As for LeBlanc, he and Webb are very similar pitchers. Both are left-handed pitchers, both have average stuff, and both would be the long man in the Pirate bullpen. Ultimately, I expect LeBlanc’s MLB experience to win out and get him the final bullpen spot.

Since he is a Rule 5 Draft selection, if he does not make the Opening Day roster the Pirates will have to return Tyler Webb to the New York Yankees. However, if he does not make the team, one should expect them to try and work out a trade with the Bronx Bombers to keep Webb in the organization. Webb would be a strong bullpen depth piece to have at Triple-A.

The Opening Day 25

My final prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Opening Day roster is as follows:

Starting pitchers

Chad Kuhl
Gerrit Cole
Ivan Nova
Jameson Taillon
Trevor Williams

Relief pitchers

A.J. Schugel
Antonio Bastardo
Daniel Hudson
Felipe Rivero
Juan Nicasio
Tony Watson
Wade LeBlanc

Catchers

Chris Stewart (if healthy)
Francisco Cervelli

Infielders

David Freese
John Jaso
Jordy Mercer
Josh Bell
Josh Harrison
Phil Gosselin

Outfielders

Andrew McCutchen
Gregory Polanco
Starling Marte

Utility players

Adam Frazier
Alen Hanson

Next: Dave's 2017 Pirate Prediction

Opening Day is just four days away, yay! This gives the Pittsburgh Pirates four days to finalize their Opening Day roster. What is your prediction for the Bucs’ Opening Day 25-man roster?