Pittsburgh Pirates 2017 Rum Bunter Staff Predictions: Nick

Editorial: Opening Day for the Pittsburgh Pirates is just two days away. Who will be the top Pittsburgh Pirates this year?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are finishing up their Spring Training schedule in Montreal against the Blue Jays this afternoon.  In just about 48 hours they will be taking the field against the Boston Red Sox.  The first series will feature some big-time pitching matchups, as Gerrit Cole will be toeing the rubber against 2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello in the opener.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to get back into the playoffs in 2017.  They have been in the Wild Card game three of the last four seasons.  Last year was a bit of a bridge year, as the Pirates had their first losing season since 2012.  However, they also graduated some of their more promising prospects to the big league roster.  Many of those prospects will take the next step in their careers and help push the Pirates back into the playoff race.

With that being said, the Pirates will have tough competition.  Obviously, the Chicago Cubs are the heavy favorites after dominating the National League last season.  Outside of the Cubs, the National League has a lot of quality teams that will be battling for the playoffs as well.  Although it will be a grind of a season, there is a lot of upside to this team that should put them in the thick of things.

Who are the main Pittsburgh Pirates that will help get them back to the playoffs this season?

Pittsburgh Pirates MVP

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best outfields in baseball.  If Andrew McCutchen can bounce back they easily have the best all-around outfield in the NL Central, and possibly the National League.  Last year, Starling Marte was the best of the group.  However, at the beginning of the season, Gregory Polanco was not only the best hitting outfielder, but the most productive hitter in the lineup.

Polanco was hitting .299/.377/.515 with a .373 wOBA and 136 wRC+ entering July.  He also was walking at a rate of 11.9 percent.  After the hot first half of the season, Polanco regressed in the second half.  Polanco saw his numbers dwindle as he hit just .216/.261/.409 with a .284 wOBA and a 76 wRC+.  It came out after the season that Polanco was having some issues in both his knees and shoulder.  Right after the season, Polanco received injections into his knee to help mend them.

With that being said, if Polanco is healthy this season he should take another step forward.  Over his first two and a half years in the league, Polanco has shown a steady improvement each season.  The now 25-year old seems primed to put it together for a full season. Entering his third full season he should have enough experience to be able to stay consistent from April through October.  Expectations should be high for the new left fielder as he continues to mature physically and mentally. He was very impressive with the Dominican Republic in the WBC, and he earned a nod on the WBC all-star team. With Polanco looking bigger and more mature, he will likely be the key cog in the middle of the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup.

Breakout Player: Felipe Rivero

Yes, Felipe Rivero was impressive last season in his first stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Still, he did post an earned run average of 3.20 with a FIP of 3.80.  Now, these are good numbers, but Rivero seems primed to take the next step this season and breakout as one the best relievers in the National League. Although it is Spring Training, his numbers really suggest that he will be dominant this year.  In ten innings he struck out 13 hitters and gave up zero runs. With a high 90s fastball, sharp slider, Rivero also possesses one of the best changeups in the organization.

Often times when fans think of a team’s best reliever they think of the closer.  However, baseball seems to be heading in a new direction.  Currently, the league is in an analytics movement.  More teams are going beyond tradition numbers like ERA, WHIP, and in this case saves, when determining a player’s overall effectiveness.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the teams that have had success using analytics in decision making.

“We thought that he could be a guy that we could leverage in situations like we have. And it would make our bullpen that much better” Terry Francona on Miller’s Use

The Cleveland Indians are the primary example of a team using their best reliever outside of the ninth inning save situation.  Last year Andrew Miller was used through the playoffs in various innings.  The one common theme?  They were in situations that were considered the highest leverage part of the games when the Indians needed big outs to keep momentum on their side.  The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to be heading in this direction with Rivero.  Rivero easily has “closer stuff”, but Tony Watson is currently the closer.  Instead, Rivero will enter the game when Clint Hurdle feels they need the big-time outs.  He may not get the notoriety he will deserve in these situations, but he will be the biggest part of this team’s bullpen.  Rivero will not just be solid, but will solidify himself as downright dominant in 2017.

Will the Pirates return to the postseason?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken on a lot of grief for having a down year in 2016.  Baseball is the hardest professional sport to continually make the post season year after year.  Heck, look at the Royals who won the World Series in 2015 and missed the playoffs in 2016.  The Pittsburgh Pirates missed the postseason for the first time since 2012 last year, it happens.  However, they are in a better spot this year than last.

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First look at their rotation.  Last year the Pittsburgh Pirates entered the season with Cole, Liriano, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, and Juan Nicasio as their starting five.  Only one of those starters is returning this year, and that is Cole.  Liriano and Niese were two of the worst pitchers in baseball before being traded at the deadline last year.  Meanwhile, Jeff Locke should have been out of the rotation two years ago, and fans were ready to escort him to the airport when he was designated for assignment.  Nicasio did have a lot of success with the Pirates, but it was when he was put into the bullpen, not as a starter.

2017 Rotation

This year the Pirates rotation cannot be worse than last years.  Although they lack experience, there is way more potential upside.  Cole at this point is a veteran, and he should return to form if healthy.  Meanwhile, Ivan Nova is the most experienced pitcher of the group and had a renaissance in his career when he came to Pittsburgh.  He may not be as impressive as he was last year, but still, he will outperform last year’s number three arm in Jon Niese.  Then there is Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, and Chad Kuhl. All three are entering their first full season in the MLB, but all three were touted prospects, especially Taillon and Glasnow.  They should only improve as they gain experience.

2017 Lineup

The lineup should be just as effective as last year, if not more.  Gregory Polanco is primed to put together a big year this season.  Starling Marte was the team’s best hitter in 2016, but he did not play enough.  Marte needs to stay on the field more this year.  Of course, the biggest boost this offense can get is having Andrew McCutchen return to his all-star form. Add those three with a strong bench and a full season of Josh Bell, and the Pirates should have a potent offense to go along with an improving rotation.

Next: Dave's Predictions For 2017

The Pittsburgh Pirates should make a run at the National League Wild Card this season.  They are in a tough spot having the Cubs in their division, which definitely limits their opportunity to a Wild Card spot.  Competing with them will likely be one of the Dodgers or Giants depending on the winner of the West, and either the Mets or Nationals depending on the winner of the east. Of course, other clubs like the Rockies, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks could be in the pictures as well.  The Pirates have a legitimate shot at finishing second in the NL Central this year also.  The Cardinals are not as good as they once were and the Reds and Brewers are still rebuilding.

RECORD PREDICTION: 87-75, Pittsburgh Pirates earn the second National League Wild Card