2017 Pittsburgh Pirates Rum Bunter Staff Predictions: Marty

Opening Day for the Pittsburgh Pirates is tomorrow

At approximately 2:05 PM on Monday, Rick Porcello will fire the first pitch of both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox 2017 season. After a long winter, and what seemed to be an even longer month of Spring Training, real baseball is here.

2017 is a big year for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After making the postseason in three consecutive seasons, thanks in large part to injuries, the Bucs regressed to 78-83-1 in 2016. Now, manager Clint Hurdle and general manager Neal Huntington enter the final season on their contracts looking to bounce back.

While winning the National League Central Division is not likely, or even realistic, for the Pirates in 2017, returning to the postseason is. It’s not the Pirates’ fault that the Chicago Cubs are simply head and shoulders above just about every other team in baseball.

Let’s begin with my predictions for the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates. First up, the team MVP for 2017.

Gerrit Cole

This was, by far, the easiest call to make when predicting the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates. When healthy, Gerrit Cole is one of the best starting pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. Pirate fans saw this in 2015 when he finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award voting.

The 2016 season was an injury-riddled one for Gerrit Cole. His injuries were a big reason why the Pirates regressed to 78 wins. If he’s healthy in 2017, he will contend for the NL Cy Young Award once again.

During Cole’s Cy Young worthy 2015 campaign he posted a 2.66 FIP, 5.4 WAR, and a 202:44 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 208 innings pitched. Prior to getting injured in 2016, Cole owned a 2.88 FIP which was in the top five in the Major Leagues.

Despite battling injury, Gerrit Cole still posted a 3.33 FIP and a 2.5 WAR in 2016. He was also a bit snake bitten (.354 BABIP) last season.

This spring Gerrit Cole has looked like his 2015 self. His stuff has been phenomenal and has bordered on un-hittable at times.

When he is healthy, Gerrit Cole is one of the best starting pitchers in the National League. For this reason, he will be the Pirates’ 2017 Cy Young winner. Hell, he could win the league-wide Cy Young and it would not come as a surprise.

Tyler Glasnow

Friday night, the Pirates announced that Tyler Glasnow has won a job in the Pirate rotation. Glasnow is arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball and his potential has no ceiling. Now Glasnow will be given a chance to show what he can do in the Major Leagues.

Tyler Glasnow made his Major League debut in 2016. He made four starts and three appearances out of the Pirate bullpen. He pitched 23 1/3 innings and had mixed results.

The control issues that have plagued him throughout the minors were there as he walked 13 batters (5.01 BB/9), he hit three batters, and he uncorked two wild pitches. However, he allowed just two home runs and struck out 24 batters (9.26 K/9).

After an up and down spring, Glasnow started to put it all together in his final two appearances. In these outings he allowed nine hits in eight innings pitched, while walking just three batters and striking out 14.

Most importantly, Glasnow’s command of his pitches was much better in these two outings. He threw quality strikes with consistency and did a better job of putting the ball where his catcher wanted it.

Tyler Glasnow possesses a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and regularly hit 97+ miles per hour this spring. His curveball is absolutely filthy and has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. Mix in a changeup that he has, successfully, incorporated this spring and it is easy to see why Glasnow’s ceiling is so high.

In 2017 Tyler Glasnow will begin to reach that ceiling. 2017 is the year his ascent to being one of the top starting pitchers in the National League begins. This will make him the Pirates’ breakout player in 2017

Will the Pirates return to the postseason?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a team capable of returning to the postseason. In 2016 everything that could go wrong did. Yet,  at the end of August, they were only one game out of a postseason spot.

A healthy Gerrit Cole anchoring the rotation gives the Pirates the top of the rotation arm a team needs to be a postseason contender. A full season of Jameson Taillon gives the Pirates a great one-two punch atop their rotation. They will also get a full season, not just two months, of Ivan Nova.

A healthy Francisco Cervelli, Andrew McCutchen being the hitter he’s been his entire career outside of June and July of 2016, and a full season of Starling Marte will make the team better as well. These three factors combined with six months of Josh Bell should help to offset the loss of Jung Ho Kang‘s bat for however long he is out.

The Pirates *should* have a very strong bullpen as well. Felipe Rivero, Juan Nicasio, and Daniel Hudson are all lights out in the backend of the pen. Antonio Bastardo is a very good lefty specialist. As long as Tony Watson is better than he was in 2016, which should not be hard, the bullpen will be very good.

And even if Watson struggles, the Pirates have plenty of other options.

Speaking of other options, the Pirates have much better depth in 2017 than they did in 2016. Nick Kingham and Steven Brault are strong internal depth options for the starting rotation. A.J. Schugel, Dovydas Neverauskas, and Edgar Santana give the Pirates good bullpen depth. A healthy Elias Diaz combined with the emergence of Jose Osuna, and top prospects Austin Meadows and Kevin Newman knocking on the door of the Major Leagues gives the Bucs strong positional player depth, too.

In 2017 the Pirate defense will be better, too. Having Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart all season will increase the defense behind the plate substantially. The outfield defense will also improve drastically with Starling Marte is in center field. Run prevention should be a strength of the 2017 Pirates.

Andrew McCutchen also has a chip on his shoulder this year. And when the baddest dude in the league is looking to prove something, that does not bode well for the rest of the National League. Gerrit Cole is in the same boat, and if these two players return to their pre-2016 selves the Pirates will once again be one of the best teams in the National League.

Another factor that works in the Pirates’ favor is that after the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Nationals, the National League is very mediocre. It would not be surprising at all to see the Pirates finish with the fifth-best record in the National League.

Other than those four teams, there are no teams in the National League that are clearly better than the Pirates on paper.

The Cardinals have a great bullpen, however, their lineup is mediocre at best, as is their rotation after Carlos Martinez. The Rockies are going to hit and score a boatload of runs, but, as always, the question remains will their pitching be good enough? The Mets have the best rotation in baseball when healthy, but, once again, their rotation is not healthy. Plus, the Met lineup has a lot of question marks outside of Yoenis Cespedes. The Diamondbacks could get healthy and bounce back, but I would not count on it.

The Braves, Brewers, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, and Reds are just flat out bad.

Next: Dave's Predictions For 2017

2017 will be a lot more fun for Pirate fans than 2016 was. When the calendar turns to October and the leaves begin to change colors and fall, the Pittsburgh Pirates will still be playing. Powered by Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon becoming one of the best one-two punches in the National League, the resurgence of Andrew McCutchen, and the emergence of Tyler Glasnow, the Bucs return to the postseason.

RECORD PREDICTION: 88-74, Pirates earn the second National League Wild Card