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Pittsburgh Pirates Pitchers Have A BABIP Problem
By Marty Leap
A look at the Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff 10 games into the 2017 Major League Baseball season
Through the first ten games of the 2017 season, the Pirates’ pitching staff has been average. Entering Saturday’s game against the Chicago Cubs the Pirates rank 15th in the Majors in FIP (4.08), which puts them. literally, smack dab in the middle of the pack in Major League Baseball.
There is an issue that is plaguing the Pirates. It is an issue that is often times overlooked, if noticed at all, by fans. That issue is that their batting average on balls in play is too high.
Batting average on balls in play, or BABIP for short, is a stat that measures how often non-home run batted balls fall for base hits. FanGraphs describes BABIP as follows:
"Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball is “in play” when the plate appearance ends in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, sacrifice bunt, or home run. In other words, the batter put the ball in play and it didn’t clear the outfield fence. Typically around 30% of all balls in play fall for hits, but there are several variables that can affect BABIP rates for individual players, such as defense, luck, and talent level."
League average BABIP is .300. If a pitcher’s BABIP is over .300 this can tell you a few different things. First off, they are due for regression to the mean. This means that better results *should* be coming.
Secondly, it can also tell you about the external factors around a pitcher. If a pitcher has a BABIP that is higher than the league average of .300, odds are, they have been victimized by some bad luck and/or bad defense. And anyone who has watched the Pirates this season will tell you that the team’s defense has been, to put it kindly, less than stellar this season.
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Prior to Saturday’s game, 8 of the Pirates’ 12 pitchers owned a BABIP over .300. This includes four pitchers (Tyler Glasnow, Juan Nicasio, Daniel Hudson, and Trevor Williams) that own a BABIP over .400.
When looking at the pitcher’s with a BABIP over .300, a trio of them are not in too bad of shape. Ivan Nova (.311), Gerrit Cole (.316), and Chad Kuhl (.323) own a BABIP that is not high enough over .300 to indicate they have been very snakebitten this season.
The four pitchers mentioned above, along with Antonio Bastardo (.375 BABIP), all have been victimized by bad luck and/or bad defense this season. To be honest, it is probably a bit of both. Even though with Bastardo it might be a case of his left arm is cooked and he is not very good anymore.
Another note on BABIP for the Pittsburgh Pirates is the BABIP of Wade LeBlanc. Entering Saturday’s game, LeBlanc owned a BABIP of .125. This indicates that LeBlanc has been extremely lucky thus far in 2017 and is due for some serious regression. LeBlanc’s 5.51 xFIP indicates this as well.
Next: Pirates Rally To Beat Cubs
It has been an up-and-down start to the season for the Pirate pitching staff. However, when you look at their BABIP numbers you see this is a staff due for some good fortune. While the rotation still has question marks, this Pirate staff is better than it has shown thus far. That should start to show soon.