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This offseason the Pirates signed Daniel Hudson to be a key part of their bullpen. However, he has been very up and down. What is plaguing him?
In his first season as a Pirate, Daniel Hudson has pitched 14 1/3 innings thus far. These 14 1/3 innings have been very up and down. At times he has looked like the shutdown backend arm the Pirates signed him to be, while at other times he’s looked incapable of getting Major League hitters out.
Hudson’s strikeout rate is up this season, while his walk rate is down. The problem is that in 14 1/3 innings pitched he has allowed 22 hits, however, this number is extremely inflated.
What is plaguing Daniel Hudson most this season is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). League average BABIP is .300, Hudson’s is currently .435. Whenever a pitcher has a BABIP that is over .300 it is a sign that they have been victimized by bad defense, bad luck, or both.
This high BABIP is what leads to Hudson’s hits numbers being so inflated because not all of the 22 hits he has allowed should have been hits.
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For a variety of reasons, ERA is an absolutely horrible stat to use to evaluate the effectiveness of relief pitchers. That said, Hudson’s is 7.53 this season. And this 7.53 ERA does not reflect how he has pitched at all.
Daniel Hudson’s FIP this season is 3.99, and FIP is a much better stat to evaluate pitchers with than ERA is. This is due to their FIP being based on things they actually control, unlike ERA. A pitcher’s FIP is determined by how many strikeouts they record, how many batters they walk, how many batters they hit, and how many home runs they allow. Once again, all things a pitcher can control.
For the most part, Daniel Hudson has done his job this year. Hence his FIP being under 4. However, his BABIP continues to plague him.
The two best things a pitcher can do to record outs are strike hitters out and induce soft contact. Daniel Hudson is currently striking hitters out at a rate of 9.42 K/9. This is the second highest strikeout rate of his career, and well above the Major League average for pitchers.
This season, Daniel Hudson’s hard contact rate is down. Currently, he is allowing hard contact 22.9 percent of the time. This is the lowest such number of his career.
The stats of a relief pitcher can be distorted by few bad outings. This is due to most relievers only pitching an inning at a time. Outside of back-to-back
Outside of back-to-back disastrous appearances against the Cubs and Marlins at the end of April, Hudson has allowed 5 earned runs on 16 hits, zero home runs, and he has struck out 14 batters in 13 1/3 innings pitched.
In 5 outings this month Hudson has allowed 1 earned run on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 5 strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings pitched. However, his BABIP this month is an astronomically high .455. And that is something that he simply can not control.
Next: Can The Pirates Replace Taillon?
As long as Daniel Hudson continues to record a lot of strikeouts and keep his hard contact rate down, he should improve as the season progresses. His 3.99 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, and .435 BABIP do not support his 7.53 ERA at all.
The biggest problem plaguing Daniel Hudson right now is the fact too many of the balls put in play off of him are turning into outs. This is something that Hudson can not control. All a pitcher can control is if they allow soft contact or hard contact. After that, it is up to his defense. Hudson has allowed more soft contact than hard this season, however, his defense has failed him leading to the problem that is plaguing him: his BABIP.