Tyler Glasnow Is Throwing More Strikes, Which Is Bad?

Tyler Glasnow has often struggled with his control.  That has been seen throughout his minor league career and in his brief Major League career.  But in 2017, he has been throwing more pitches in the zone, and he’s been worse than before.

There are tradeoffs in almost every aspect of life, and that includes pitching.  A tradeoff is a sacrifice in one area for a gain in another.  They can be good or bad, depending on what the intended outcome is.  For Tyler Glasnow, the goal was always to throw more strikes.  But there is a tradeoff in trying to throw more strikes, and that is you’re not allowing your stuff to play.

Tyler Glasnow might have fallen victim to this tradeoff, and he might be worse off.  On the 2017 season, Glasnow is throwing the ball in the zone 46.6 percent of the time compared to just 42.6 percent of the time last season.  This comes despite Glasnow throwing a first pitch strike 51.3 percent, down from 61.9 percent in 2016.  The decrease in first pitch strikes is significant, especially since he is in the zone more than ever, and falling behind 1-0 has led to a 2010-17 FIP of 5.68, and Glasnow is at a 9.02 FIP in 2017.  There is no question that part of his problem is not getting ahead 0-1.  However, his problems with an increase in throwing the ball in the zone more

The decrease in first pitch strikes is significant, especially since he is in the zone more than ever, and falling behind 1-0 has led to a 2010-17 FIP of 5.68, and Glasnow is at a 9.02 FIP in 2017.  There is no question that part of his problem is not getting ahead 0-1.  However, his problems with an increase in throwing the ball in the zone more seems noteworthy.

With the four percent increase in zone percentage from 2016, and Glasnow is above the league average of 45.0 percent, Glasnow has seen less swinging strikes.  In 2016, Glasnow got a swinging strike 11.6 percent of the time, but this year he is at 8.8 percent.  League average for swinging strike percentage is 10.3 percent.  Opponents are chasing less, swinging at pitches outside the zone 22.9 percent, down from 27.0 percent, and this helps explain the decrease in swinging strike percentage.

His contact rate has gone from 73 percent to 78.9 percent, league average is 77.5 percent.  Take the increase in contact rate, decrease in outside the zone swing rate, and decrease in swinging strike percentage and you get a pitcher who has decreased his strikeout percentage from 22.9 to 20.4 percent.

Oddly enough, even with the increase in zone percentage, Glasnow is walking 13.8 percent of hitters, and last season was lower at 12.4 percent.  However, when you exclude the first start against the Cincinnati Reds, Glasnow has just a 11.59 percent walk rate, still not good, but better.

Tyler Glasnow might be trying to be too fine.  When looking at pitches that are mid-height in the strike zone, Glasnow has thrown 20.87 percent of his pitches in those locations, up from 18.68 percent.  League average has been 19.45 percent so far this season.  Glasnow has also thrown 8.67 percent of his pitches right down the middle, last season was only 5.01 percent, and league average this year is 7.23 percent.

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Glasnow’s issue might be he is trying to be too fine with his pitches.  He’s increased his zone percentage, but missing bats has been worse off.  He’s throwing the ball middle of the zone and middle of the plate more so than league average and more so than last year.  Glasnow throwing it in the zone more, which has been bad for him, just trust the stuff and pitch.

*Numbers from fangraphs and baseball savant