Pittsburgh Pirates Should Be Bold: Copy The Rays

Editorial: The Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays seem to have been on the forefront of the analytic revolution.  They’re the two teams that come to mind when thinking about small market teams building a winner, though the 1990s Cleveland Indians really lead the charge.  The Pirates should follow the same script Tampa did.

Matt Silverman joined the Rays front office in 2005, a year after current Dodgers general manager Andrew Friedman joined the Rays in 2004.  Silverman, the team president from October 2005 to October 2014, and Friedman the Rays general manager from the end of 2005 through the end of 2014, built a model for teams to follow.  The Rays used analytics to help turn one of the worst organizations in baseball, an expansion team in 1998, and a small market teams to one of the best.  After finishing 66-96 in 2007, the Rays made a surprise run to the World Series in 2008 (though PECOTA did peg them at 88-74, but the 97-65 Tampa Bay team lost in five games to Philadelphia.

The Rays built a foundation that allowed them to win 90 games in five of six seasons from 2008-13, and the Rays currently sit just 3.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox, and Baseball Prospectus has their playoff chances at 54.4 percent.  Friedman moved on after 2014, but Silverman remained, and his role became president of baseball operations.  Chain Bloom and Erik Neander oversee all baseball operations.  They’re the franchise to model, and what the Pirates tried to become, but their 2016 and 2017 seasons are more familiar with the three strong years before down year of small market teams.

What the Rays Did

The Rays had a great offseason, signing Logan Morrison back, but they also signed two players they knew would miss parts of this season in Wilson Ramos, and all over 2017 in Nate Eovaldi.  On August 16, 2016 it was announced that the hard throwing right-handed pitcher would undergo his second Tommy John surgery, and he would need surgery to fix a flexor tendon.

With Eovaldi unable to pitch in 2017, the Yankees released him in November, and avoided having to pay for his last year of arbitration.  Why pay him when he will yield zero benefits?  He will be 28 years old the next time he can pitch in 2018, and with two surgeries, including his second Tommy John, the way he will return is unknown.  The Rays didn’t care and signed him to a one year deal worth $2 million in  2017 with a team option for 2018 worth $2 million.  The Rays are banking on  Eovaldi being worth at least 0.5 WAR in 2018, and if he’s worth more.  Furthermore, the Rays should get a below market deal pitcher.

What the Pirates can do

The Pirates should follow this route.  Michael Pineda has a flexor strain and partially torn UCL that will require Tommy John Surgery, and he also had a shoulder injury in 2012 that caused him problems.  Pineda is a free agent at the end of the season, and the Pirates have the chance to do what the Rays did.  They could of course trade for him now in hopes of extending him, but it’d be foolish to give up any asset in acquiring him.

Pineda has never had a season under 1.0 WAR, posting these innings and WAR in his carer:

If he just reproduces his career norms in 2019, he would be worth more than what he will sign for, and provide the value the Pirates would want for cheap, similar to the Rays with Eovaldi.  The Pirates will have spots open for him, Gerrit Cole will be in his last year of arbitration and might not be on the team, Ivan Nova will be in his last year and is playing with smoke and mirrors, so similar situation.  Steven Brault and Tyler Glasnow have lots to prove, Nick Kingham hasn’t made his debut yet, Mitch Keller should be up later that year if all goes right, Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams might be best suited for the bullpen.

There will be a spot, and if not the 94 mph sinker, 90 mph chanegup, and 86 mph slider will play out of the pen. Pineda strikes hitters out (24.4 percent in his career), walks few (5.6 percent in his career), and gets groundballs (44.2 percent in his career, but has been much better last three years).   His lone problem is the long ball (3.2 percent in his career, which rises each season). However, getting out of Yankee Stadium and into PNC Park would help him.

Next: Marte Looks Ready For His Return

Final Thoughts

It would be a bold move to spend money on a player who will not play in 2018, especially when considering anytime you spend money it’s either smart or not smart.  But the risk versus reward is high for him.  He has injury concerns in the past, but has an electric arm that the Pirates look for. Furthermore, the Pirates front office should be bold this offseason, copy the Tampa Bay Rays, and sign Mike Pineda to a one year deal with a team option for 2019.

*Also, all Numbers from fangraphs