Andrew McCutchen: The Struggles And The Hope

Andrew McCutchen struggled at the start of the season, but he found his groove in the middle months of the season.  However, even with those two great months, McCutchen has found himself falling again, but even more so than he was to start the season.

Andrew McCutchen had a miserable 2016 season, though he turned it on in August and September, which led to hope in 2017.  The projection systems also indicated a bounce back, Steamer projecting McCutchen for a 129 wRC+ and ZiPS projecting a 128 wRC+.  There was hope for McCutchen, who enters games played on Monday with a 119 wRC+.

The optimism surrounding McCutchen’s season, as he posted a 94 wRC+ in April and a 76 wRC+ in May, which included McCutchen bottoming out at a wRC+ of 65 on May 26.  McCutchen saw himself slide down to the sixth spot in the order, a spot McCutchen was not used to.

Neal Huntington on his radio show, via Pirates Breakdown, said earlier in the year on McCutchen:

"“Well, we continue to see some well-struck balls that are either hit into a well-positioned defender, or finding them where they might not normally. His BABIP is low, his line drive is solid. His walk rate is the same and his strikeout rate is much better. We are just not seeing the results we want at this point.”"

McCutchen posted BAbip’s of .273 in April and .218 in May, and that is with his hard hit rates.  Below is McCutchen’s hard hit rates for each month and total below:

In May, McCutchen was crushing the ball, and his low BAbip indicated that he would improve.  But a chart of just McCutchen is essentially useless without context, so below is the league:

McCutchen’s struggles in May are really shocking when looking at the hard hit rates.  The 49.40 percent of batted balls being hit at 95+ miles per hour is extremely high compared to the league mark if 33.11 percent for the month, and the 33.25 percent overall.  What Huntington was referring to can be seen clearly.  McCutchen was stinging the ball, but was getting rather unlucky when doing so.

The results can also be seen when looking at the slugging percentage and isolated power for balls that are hit 95+ mph, or hard hit balls:

Early on, McCutchen’s power wasn’t there compared to his middle months, which saw him post wRC+’s of 212 and 179 in June and July.  In those months McCutchen finally found the results he should have been having in May based on his hard hit rates, and this is with a hard hit rate one percent above average in June.

However, just like with the hard hit rates, the numbers are useless without context.  Below is the league numbers on hard hit balls:

McCutchen was well below the average in slugging and ISO in the first two months.  In June and July, where McCutchen posted his best months, McCutchen was well above the average.  Neal Huntington’s comments were proved correct.

The great months that McCutchen had were going to regress, but the question was by how much.  McCutchen has regressed to a 57 wRC+ in August and a 65 wRC+ in September, though that is just 39 plate appearances.

The hope for McCutchen should still be there, especially given his roughly league average hard hit rates.  In August McCutchen had a .280 BAbip, and so far in September, he has a .346 BAbip.  Huntington’s comments from early in the season can apply to McCutchen’s August.  He was hitting the ball hard with a low BAbip, and the results were not seen.

Despite posting a 34.21 percent hard hit rate in August, McCutchen had just a .654 slugging and a .192 ISO on balls hit 95 mph.  League averages were a 1.166 slugging and .601 ISO, so despite McCutchen having a hard hit rate about one percent higher than average, McCutchen was well below average in slugging and ISO.

Next: Steven Brault Shines as Bucs Beat Brewers

Final Thoughts

In terms of batted ball profiles, the same cause for hope early in the season should remain a cause of hope next season.  McCutchen’s walk rates of 10.0 and 7.7 percent with strikeout rates of 20.9 percent and 25.6 percent are a different story, though the 20.9 percent is close to the season long league average of 21.6 percent.

Andrew McCutchen will get his option picked up for next season, being traded in the offseason is a different story.  But in terms of McCutchen bouncing back next season will likely happen.  He won’t be the 212 wRC+ players, nobody is, but an overall season of 119, like he has right now, is likely.  He has struggled, but with his batted ball profile compared to the league, there is hope.

*Batted ball numbers calculated/retrieved from baseball savant. Other numbers from FanGraphs