Three major offseason questions for the Pittsburgh Pirates

What will the Pirates do with Andrew McCutchen?

This is undoubtedly the biggest question surrounding the Pirates this offseason so let’s get it out of the way first.

There is no denying that center fielder Andrew McCutchen has been the face of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ franchise since he made his Major League debut in 2009. Since then McCutchen has been a six-time All-Star, he has won a Gold Glove, he has been a three-time Silver Slugger Award winner, and he was the 2013 National League MVP.

Andrew McCutchen has solidified himself as one of the five best Pirates of all-time. The first nine seasons of his Major League career have McCutchen on his way to Cooperstown. However, it is possible he has played his final game as a Pirate.

Last offseason the Pirates came incredibly close to trading McCutchen to the Washington Nationals for a package involving Gio Gonzalez, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez. That trade, of course, did not happen and McCutchen then had a great 2017 season in Pittsburgh.

For the 2018 season Andrew McCutchen has a club option worth $14.5 million that the Pirates will pick up. At this point he will officially be in his last year under contract with the Pirates.

After picking up McCutchen’s option, what will the Pirates do? Will they trade their superstar? Or, as I expect to happen, will he be back in Pittsburgh as the Pirates attempt to make one last run at a World Series in the McCutchen Era.

The entire offseason should be built around what happens with Andrew McCutchen. If the Pirates keep him then add to this team and prepare for a serious postseason push in 2018. If he is traded, then blow things up and start over.

We will have to wait and see what the Pirates do with Andrew McCutchen this offseason, but it is by far the biggest question that Neal Huntington must answer this offseason.

Who’s on third?

Prior to the start of the 2017 season the Pittsburgh Pirates appeared to be in great shape at third base. After all they had one of the league’s biggest power threats in Jung Ho Kang manning the hot corner, with former World Series MVP David Freese backing him up.

Well, things went far from according to plan for the Pirates at third base in 2017.

Jung Ho Kang missed the entire season due to being on the restricted list after getting a DUI in his native South Korea last offseason. This led to David Freese having to play on a daily basis at third base. At Freese’s age, this is simply something he is no longer cut out to do.

In 115 games at third base in 2017 David Freese had a very strong defensive season. His seven defensive runs saved was tied with Anthony Rendon for third most among National League third baseman and his .960 fielding percentage was seventh best in the League.

However, Freese’s offense was putrid this past season. His 23.1 percent strikeout rate was above league average, while his .108 ISO and .317 slugging percentage were both career worsts. His .326 wOBA was the third lowest of his career and his wRC+ of 100 was a new career worst. His 1.6 fWAR was his lowest since 2013.

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So, where do the Pirates go at third base in 2018? Because playing Freese every day is not going to get the job done.

They can hope that Jung Ho Kang gets his work visa issues worked out and is able to return to the Major Leagues in 2018. That, however, seems unlikely to happen. This leaves the Pirates with their internal options which are not pretty.

When used properly, Freese can still be a very serviceable player. But the Pirates need someone to, at least, split time with Freese at third base which they do not appear to have.

In August the Pirates traded to re-acquire utility man Sean Rodriguez who can play third base. However, Rodriguez is coming off a .257 wOBA and 55 wRC+ season. Furthermore, he has always been a player that is best served in a bench role.

In theory, Adam Frazier and Max Moroff could be options at third base as well. But Frazier has very little experience at third base and Moroff is looking to be much like Rodriguez in that he is best suited to be a bench player in the Major Leagues.

First baseman/outfielder Jose Osuna also started to learn third base this past season. The problem is Osuna is awful against right-handed pitching. Also, he is a poor defender at positions he already plays let alone a new one.

Another option would be to add a new second baseman and to slide Josh Harrison to third base. If Adam Frazier’s glove was not unplayably bad at second base this problem would be solved as he could play second base with Harrison at third. However, Frazier’s defense at second base is far too horrendous for him to play every day.

The Pirates’ best option is to address third base either via free agency or a trade this offseason. Last season Freese still owned a .364 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Due to this the Bucs just need to find a left-handed hitter to platoon with Freese at third base.

As was said above, in theory, this left-handed hitter could be Adam Frazier or Max Moroff. That, however, does not seem like a very safe bet by the Pirates. Adding a left-handed hitting third baseman would the easiest and cheapest solution to the Pirates’ issues at third base and that is something Neal Huntington needs to look to do this offseason.

How will the starting rotation shake out?

Currently, the Pittsburgh Pirates have more starting pitchers than rotation spots. On the surface this may sound like a great problem to have. The issue is that too many of this options are back end of the rotation arms.

Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Ivan Nova are locks for the 2018 rotation. Trevor Williams was the team’s second-best starting pitcher behind Taillon in 2017 and should be a rotation lock as well. This leaves the likes of Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault battling for one spot.

Also, there is prospect Nick Kingham. Due to potentially being out of options Kingham may have to make the team out of Spring Training in 2018. This could make Kingham a rotation option as well. The Kingham issue is discussed in greater detail here.

Both Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault might be best served as bullpen swingman, similar to Chad Green of the Yankees, at the Major League level. As for Ivan Nova, as his lifetime 4.30 FIP, 1.15 HR/9, and his 32.2 percent hard contact rate all indicate he simply is not a good pitcher and has no business being in the Pirates’ rotation. Unfortunately, due to his contract, he is going nowhere.

Cole, Taillon, and Williams give the Pirates a solid top three to build their starting rotation around. But after these three this rotation needs help. Also, Cole needs to fix his home run issue that plagued him in 2017.

This offseason Neal Huntington should look to first trade Ivan Nova and his contract and secondly add starting pitching help. If the Pirates enter the 2018 season with that top three, Kuhl or Brault as their number five starting pitcher with the other at Triple-A for depth, and a newly acquire starting pitcher as their other starting pitcher the rotation will, on paper at least, be in good shape.

If the Pirates do not add to their rotation this offseason, then things could be shaky in 2018. Right now their rotation is a bunch of question marks after the top three, and even Trevor Williams is far from a given since he does not even have 30 career starts yet.

Work to be done this offseason

Pirate general manager Neal Huntington has an interesting offseason ahead of him. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a good core with players such as Andrew McCutchen, Felipe Rivero, George Kontos, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Josh Harrison, and Starling Marte, among others.

However, the Pirates also have their fair share of holes. The team needs help at third base, the starting rotation needs help, the bullpen needs another left-handed reliever, and Jordy Mercer simply is not good enough at shortstop. It is also not a given that Andrew McCutchen is a Pittsburgh Pirate in 2018.

In 2018 the Pittsburgh Pirates could compete for the postseason, or they could just as easily lose 80+ games again. Which way the season goes will hinge largely on how the next five months unfold.

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The next five months will be an interesting and busy time for Neal Huntington. I, for one, do not envy the Pirates’ general manager this offseason. Depending on how things shake out with Andrew McCutchen this offseason could dictate the direction of the Pirates for next two or three seasons and not just 2018.