Rum Bunter’s 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview: David

With the start of Major League Baseball’s regular season being tomorrow, it is time to round out our yearly previews of the Pittsburgh Pirates here at Rum Bunter.

Tomorrow, the Pittsburgh Pirates will start their season against the Detroit Tigers for a three game set before coming home to Pittsburgh on Monday.

This will be the first opening day since 2009 that Andrew McCutchen wasn’t on the team, and the first time he won’t be suiting up for the Pirates in a game this season since 2008.  Gerrit Cole was also dealt, putting a new spotlight on Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon, who the club will look at as the future faces of the franchise.

The 2013-15 Pirates won the second most amount of games in baseball, but over the last two years the club has struggled, with both the front office and players actions being at the forefront of their struggles.  2018 will bring something new, with fresh faces and young players trying to cement themselves as the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.

After an offseason of moves that saw the Pirates trading away their two biggest names, it’s time for meaningful games to actually occur.  Diving into the final installment of our prediction series, let’s look at who the team MVP will be.

Team MVP- Josh Bell

While the case for Starling Marte to be the team’s MVP is strong – his five wins above replacement in 2016 and 2017 were the most of any Pirate in that span – it is time for the young guys to really step up their game and take over.

Last season the Pirates rookie first baseman hit .255/.334/.466, not bad but nothing spectacular either.  In 2016 when Bell first appeared in a Pirates uniform, the switch hitting Texan hit .273/.368/.406, and was more patient than aggressive as he walked 13.8 percent of the time to striking out 12.5 percent of the time.

This past season, though, Bell sold out for power, and he still walked and struck out at rates better than that of the league average.  This season, I suspect he will be able to combine those two approaches to the point where he overtakes Marte for the best hitter on the squad.

Combining the patience and contact approach with the power can push Bell to become a Brandon Belt type offensive player.  For his career, Belt has produced a .268/.358/.461 slash and a 128 wRC+, and he has really been one of the most underrated players in the game over the last handful of years.

While Bell’s offensive numbers will hopefully mirror those of Belt’s, his ever improving defense likely will not.  Belt’s offense and defensive contributions make him a consistent four win player, and while I envision Bell’s offense will improve to that range, his defensive ability likely means he will be more of a three win player.

Bell’s got the tools to carry the offense, and in 2018 that’s what should be expected, especially with him in the cleanup spot.  Josh Bell will be the Pirates 2018 most valuable player.

Team Cy Young- Chad Kuhl

Jameson Taillon will start the season as the Pirates number one starter, and he will get the nod for the Pirates home opener.  By the time the season starts, Chad Kuhl will have overtaken the former second overall pick as the most productive starter.

There might not be a pitcher that I flip-flop my opinion more on than Kuhl.  He has the stuff to be an elite relief pitcher, similar to Chad Green of the Yankees, but his results have been league average as a starter, and that is valuable.  He has a new curveball that he started off throwing last season, and he now features two strikeout type pitches.

Kuhl’s strikeout rate has consistently gone up, especially after adding the hook to his repertoire.  Combining a pitcher that throws 95 miles per hour, has a curveball spin rate that’s similar to Sonny Gray, Charlie Morton, and Lance McCullers Jr., and the latter two had the fourth and fifth highest run value on the pitch among pitchers with 100 or more innings.

The key for Kuhl will be to use the curveball more and the fastball and changeup less.  Even after he added the curve around June, he only threw the pitch 8.9 percent of the time from July on.  His fastball usage of 64.45 percent and slider percent of 17.14 percent.  That’s a relief pitcher mix similar to Felipe Rivero‘s, just substitute the slider for the changeup.

But the reason Kuhl will be the team’s Cy Young is because of that increase usage in his curveball.  After a year of throwing the pitch, he’ll be more comfortable with it.  Combined with his above average slider and a decrease in using his fastball, Kuhl can become more of a wipeout pitcher.  He has good stuff and swing and miss stuff, this year Kuhl will turn that into more strikeouts and be the Pirates most effective starter.

Predicting the 2018 Pirates Record

The Pirates finished in second place every year from 2013-15, and they could not get over the hump known as the St. Louis Cardinals.  The last two seasons the club has finished third and fourth respectively, and overall haven’t finished in the basement since 2010.  They won’t be as bad as they were in 2010, but not as good as they were from 2013-15.  They’re more of a blend between 2016 and 2017.

The Pirates will likely fall on the spectrum of 79-83 wins, fading in and out of the wild card race all summer, with ultimately another disappointing finish.  The club does have some interesting players who have some high variability in them (Moran and Gregory Polanco) to where if they outperform their projections, the club might be more contender than pretender.  In other words, the club has the pieces to make an Oakland Athletics or Tampa Bay Rays surprise run given the variability in some key players, but that model works the other way as well, seen in the Oakland  Athletics tendency to finish in last place when they’re not a contender.

That 79-83 win window is likely good enough to finish in third place, though the Brewers will be fighting for that spot as well.  The Brewers added Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, but it comes at a cost in terms of playing Domingo Santana and Ryan Braun.  With the club planning to use Braun at first against left-handed pitchers, the Brewers will lose value from Eric Thames, a two win player from last year.  There’s perceived additions of two solid players – which both Cain and Yelich are – but there is an opportunity cost involved with the additions, something that seemingly always gets ignored.

The biggest problem for the Brewers is that Jimmy Nelson is out until likely the middle of July at best.  I’m not buying into them mainly for that purpose, as their starting rotation leaves lots to be desired.  For that reason, this division will be a race between the Cardinals and Cubs while the Brewers and Pirates compete for third place, as the Reds continue to fail to make any noise with a last place finish.

Next: Rum Bunter’s 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview: Nick

The Pirates won’t make the playoffs, and they have some players with upside.  There’s probably not enough to compete, but targeting players with the hopes they outperform their projections is a model the most successful small market teams have used, but there is room for it to backfire, seen by the Pirates, Athletics, and Rays over the last couple seasons.  Is it the best model?  Perhaps not, but it is the one the Pirates appear to be using, and it can frustrating.  Another year, another season to flirt with .500 for sixth months.

*Numbers from Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, and Brooks Baseball