Examining the May Struggles of Trevor Williams

After a great month of April for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Trevor Williams has struggled immensely in May. What has caused his struggles?

After bursting onto the scene in 2017, Trevor Williams accomplished something in 2018 that he had never done before – start the year in a Major League starting rotation. Looking to log his first full season in an MLB rotation, Williams got off to a great start.

In the month of April, Williams owned a 2.29 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and he allowed just one home run in 35 1/3 innings pitched. The month of May has not gone nearly as well for Williams, but what are the main culprits?

First and foremost, Williams’ home run rate spiked in May. After averaging just 0.25 HR/9 in April, this number jumped to 1.65 HR/9 in the month of May.

Secondly, Williams suffered from an increase in hard contact allowed in May. During the month of April Williams allowed hard contact just 27% of the time. This jumped to an above league average 30.6% rate in May, though.

Typically, an increase in home runs allowed and an increase in hard contact go hand in hand. So, him struggling in both of these categories should not be a huge surprise.

Finally, and maybe most importantly, Williams benefitted from an unsustainably low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .222. In the month of May that number jumped to .304. And while that figure is right about league average, it was enough of an increase from his April figure to lead to regression for Williams.

All of this led to Williams owning a 5.51 ERA and a 4.59 FIP in the month of May.

One of the more frustrating parts of Williams’ May was his strikeouts and walks. After striking out 16.4% of batters faced in April, this number rose to 17.4% in May. The big difference, however, came in his control as it dropped from 12.1% to 3.6%.

Despite a slight uptick in strikeouts and a huge decrease in walks, Williams still struggled in May. With the main issue stemming from him allowing too much hard contact and, in turn, too many home runs.

Williams is also dealing with a drop in velocity. This, however, has been an issue all season long. His fastball has averaged 90.3 miles per hour this season after averaging 92.1 miles per hour during the 2017 season. Also, his slider has dropped from averaging 84.1 miles per hour to 82.1 miles per hour this season. This is also a major issue for Williams.

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In the month of May, Williams struggled due to his luck from the month of April running out as his BABIP averaged out. He also allowed more hard contact and more home runs in May. If Williams can not get his hard contact rate back down as the season progresses, odds are, he will continue to struggle. Especially if his velocity issues continue as well.