Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Pick Number 36 Analysis

The 2018 MLB Draft is underway. The Pittsburgh Pirates 36th overall pick in the competitive balance A round has come and gone.  The Pirates have selected Gunnar Hoglund with their second of selection of the day.

After selecting South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty with the tenth overall pick, perhaps his player comp in a best case scenario is Brett Gardner, the Pirates have selected Gunnar Hoglund.  Hoglund is a high school arm, and marks the third straight year that the club has taken high school pitchers with their second pick (Nick Lodolo in 2016 and Steven Jennings in 2017).

Fangraphs ranks Hoglund at number 55 overall, but the 6’4″ and 210 pound Florida high school prep arm is the typical Pirates high school.  In their write-up on The Board, they wrote,

“Hoglund is many scout’s favorite non-1st round prep projection arm; up to 96 with average stuff but a clean delivery and frame with room to grow.”

That leads to a good base to start from, a nice and firm fastball with a good delivery.  If he fills out more, maybe the fastball ticks a couple of miles per hour up, but it also helps the curveball and changeup tick more, while also allowing Hoglund to maintain the velocity deeper into games.

On the draft coverage on MLB Network, it was mentioned that Hoglund had 105 strikeouts and two walks in his senior season, and that came with no walks issued up until his last start.  But as Dan O’Dowd pointed out, that despite how impressive it is, the level of competition, especially in high school needs to come into play.

Based on the reports of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, his curveball and changeup need work going forward.  But having a clean delivery and a firm fastball will play, especially in terms of developing.  Combine the control, and an improvement in the breaking balls and off speed, perhaps Hoglund develops into a nice middle of the rotation arm.

Next: Pick 10 Analysis

The variance on Hoglund according to Fangraphs is high, and that comes from the breaking ball and changeup needing work.  With a clean bill of health, the Pirates recent draft pick should hover around the mid to late teens in the Pirates system.

Hoglund doesn’t turn 19 until December, and his size and fastball combination just screamed Pittsburgh.  With Shane Baz and Steven Jennings drafted last season, the Pirates added another high school arm that they will try to develop into a major league starter.