Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 Potential Left-Handed Relief Targets

The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten hot in July and have crawled back into the wild-card race.  Neal Huntington and company could look to make some slight upgrades to the bullpen at the deadline.

The Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 52-49 and 4.0 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the second wild-card spot in the National League, and just 4.5 of the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot.  This isn’t a team that should go completely in, more of looking at avenues to improve the club in order to reward the play of the team after stepping up to the challenge.  If a controllable starter comes along, that would make sense, but not a rental that would cost an enormous prospect package.

The club has 16.3 percent playoff odds according to Fangraphs, nothing exuberantly high, but enough to make additions.  The easiest way to add marginal upgrades is in the bullpen, a place the Pirates could use some help, especially of the left-handed variety.

The Pirates bullpen ranks 19th in ERA, though their 3.59 FIP ranks seventh.  But the biggest upgrade could be with a left-handed reliever, despite even at the best the club acquiring 25-30 innings over the next two months.

Current Lefties

The club has to lefties in the bullpen, Felipe Vazquez, and Steven Brault.  The Pirates would benefit from Vazquez not being the closer but a fireman used in the highest leverage situations, but since that won’t happen the club effectively only has one left-handed reliever: Steven Brault.

Brault has a career 4.79 ERA, 18.0 percent strikeout rate and an 11.5 percent walk rate.  His control really has been suspect this season, walking 13.8 percent of hitters.  The Pirates don’t believe in the left-handed one-out guy (LOOGY), but that’s essentially what Brault is.  For his career, lefties have a .295 wOBA against Brault compared to the .359 by righties.

Here are some left-handed trade options the Pirates could look to acquire in a trade that would not cost a large prospect package and would be slight upgrades to the Pirates bullpen.  The list is on order by last name.  The tables have the players age, years the team has club control, and the salary owed to them the rest of the way.  The numbers featured the last three years pitchers, their 2018 numbers, and their STEAMER rest of season projection.

Zach Duke

Three years ago I wrote about how the Pirates need their old friend, and some things don’t change.  Duke was traded that year to the St. Louis Cardinals, and after having Tommy John in the 2016 offseason, he came back in July 2018.  Duke has had a steady and long career, really turning around coming out of the bullpen.

The former Pirates starter still gets groundballs at a high rate, 58.6 percent this year, and for his career, he’s never been below 40 percent and has been above 50 percent every year since 2013.  While his 3.75 ERA is high, Duke does possess a 2.77 FIP, pitching to worse results than what he should have.

The Twins are out of the race and the 35-year-old reliever isn’t owed much the rest of the season.  This year lefties have a .254 wOBA and righties a .338 wOBA, and over the last three years the numbers are .263 and righties a .303 wOBA.

Duke has been effective out of the bullpen and can still get both sides out, and at the worst, he’s an upgrade over Brault against both righties and lefties.  Zach Duke would be a marginal upgrade for a low cost to a team who isn’t competing for the division but for the wild card.  Slight upgrades are what this team should be looking for given their ceiling, and Duke is just that.  It would be a move to reword the current group without sending away any players important to the future.

Aaron Loup

Aaron Loup, while his ERA is a high both this year and over the last three years, would be a buy cheap option that would be an improvement.  Loup has a 3.67 FIP over the last three years and a 3.41 FIP this year, his ERA estimators showing he should have been better.  STEAMER projects a 3.66 ERA, making Loup an even more intriguing buy-low option.

Loup gets groundballs at a high clip, near half his batted balls are on the ground, an area the Pirates target.  Combine a 25 percent strikeout rate with that many groundballs and the Pirates certainly can get an undervalued reliever.

Though the Pirates don’t believe in left-handed only relievers, that’s what Loup is.  The southpaw has a .310 wOBA against lefties this year compared to a .404 against righties.  Over the last three years, it’s a .320 compared to a .347.

Loup isn’t a splashy name, nor is he the best option listed, but he is a rental that won’t cost anything in terms of prospects.  For a team that still has a lot of work to be done for the playoffs, Loup would prevent an upgrade with no cost, as this will be the third straight year Neal Huntington has straddled the buyer/seller line at the trade deadline.

Will Smith

Will Smith isn’t like the rest of this list for a couple of reasons.  The first, he’s not just a rental, Smith will be in his last year of arbitration in 2019.  But more importantly, because he’s on a team that is still competing for the wild card spot, and given his age, years of control, and past history Smith would cost more than the others.  As hot as a name as Zach Britton is on the trade rumors, Will Smith should be seeing his name on there as well.

The Giants entered Tuesday 5.0 games back for the second wild, though there are three other teams between them and the Phillies.  They’re also only 5.5 back of the Dodgers in the NL West despite being in fourth place.  They might not be incentivized to sell, though their playoff odds of 11.3 percent is 11th of the 15 teams in the National League.  If they do sell, Smith should get some calls.

After being the big relief pitcher on the move in 2016 going from Milwaukee to San Francisco, Smith missed all of 2017 with Tommy John.  Since returning this year, Smith has struck out over a third of the batters he’s faced while walking below the league average.  It’s a dynamic arm that has back of the bullpen experience, serving as the setup man in both Milwaukee and San Francisco.

Left-handed batters have a .180 wOBA and right-handed batters a .209 wOBA this year against Smith.  Over the last three seasons, Smith has pitched, lefties .288 wOBA to righties having a .247.  He gets both sides out and would lengthen the backend of Edgar Santana, Kyle Crick, and Felipe Vazquez with Tyler Glasnow and Richard Rodriguez in the middle innings.  Will Smith would be a splashy bullpen move for 2018 and 2019 compared to the little additions to make the team better above.

The Pirates should be looking at marginal upgrades for 2018 because of the way the team has responded over the last month to comments made by Neal Huntington.  The current Pirates aren’t a team with a high ceiling, competing for the second wild-card illustrates that.  Diekman, Duke, and Loup represent the marginal upgrades for 2018 that would cost next to nothing for future years; Loup would be a real buy low based on his peripherals and projections.  Will Smith, while a potential reach out of the Pirates trade targets, would represent upgrades to this year and next and would create a solid back five end of a bullpen.

Next: Three Starters the Pirates Should Target

The Pirates won’t make any splash moves this year and that’s fine.  But finding marginal upgrades to the bullpen is available and that’s one place Neal Huntington can target with ease without worrying about the future.

*Note: All Stats as of July 24th