Trevor Williams And The Art Of Preventing Runs

After posting a 4.07 ERA a year ago, Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting pitcher Trevor Williams has dropped his ERA to 3.66 this season. What has been the main ingredient of his success?

We’ll start with a question. What team leads the Major Leagues in shutouts this season? Well, the Pittsburgh Pirates of course!

This may come as a surprise to some. After all, the Pirates’ middle relief has been a revolving door all season, the back of the rotation has been inconsistent, and the back of the bullpen forgot how to pitch for a month from mid-May through mid-June.

Leading the way for the Pirates when it comes to shutouts is Trevor Williams. While Williams has only been credited with one shutout this season – his rain-shortened complete game against the Indians on July 23rd – after pitching 7 scoreless innings in a victory over the San Francisco Giants on Saturday night Williams has now made seven starts this season in which he has not allowed a run.

Williams’ success has come despite his strikeout rate dropping from 18.2% in 2017 to 16.0% this season and his home run rate rising from 0.84 HR/9 to 0.95 HR/9. Williams has been able to overcome these two issues to limit runs by finding success when pitching with runners in scoring position.

Through his first 23 starts this season Williams has faced 112 batters with runners in scoring position. Williams has allowed just 24 hits, with 16 of them being singles, and he has limited opposing hitters to a .389 slugging percentage in these situations.

Williams is not allowing very many base hits when pitching with runners in scoring position and only 33% of the hits he has allowed in these situations have gone for extra bases. By limiting extra base hits not only is Williams less likely to allow runs, he also prevents the opposing offense from continuing to have runners in scoring position helping to limit any further damage.

His increased home run rate has not been a problem with runners in scoring position, either. Williams has allowed 15 home runs this season but just two of them have come when he has been pitching with runners in scoring position.

Watching a pitcher that is successful when pitching with runners in scoring position can be similar to watching art be formed. The pitcher keeps the base runners in check, comes to a decision with their catcher, executes their pitches, and limits the damage.

By limiting opposing hitters with runners in scoring position, Trevor Williams is mastering this art form. Despite recording less strikeouts and allowing more home runs than he did a year ago Williams is allowing fewer runs. And his success with runners in scoring position is the reason why.