Changes Joe Musgrove Made In 2018 That Led To His Success

2018 was a huge step forward for Joe Musgrove in his development as a starting pitcher, and a large reason for his improvements was his pitch selection

When the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Joe Musgrove as the centerpiece of the Gerrit Cole trade last offseason many fans were upset. Being upset was an understandable response. After all, Musgrove had spent the previous two seasons failing to solidify a spot in Houston’s starting rotation.

Despite his struggles in Houston, Musgrove was given the opportunity to start for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018. After missing nearly the first two months of the season due to a shoulder issue that cropped up in Spring Training, Musgrove took advantage of the opportunity the Pirates gave him.

In a career high 19 starts, Musgrove posted a 4.06 ERA and a 3.59 FIP in 115 1/3 innings pitched. He allowed 0.94 HR/9, he walked 4.7% of batters faced, and struck out 20.6% of batters faced. Musgrove’s FIP, walk rate, and home run rate were all career lows, while his innings pitched total was a new career high. All of these factors led to him owning a 2.1 fWAR in 2018.

So, what led to Musgrove’s success in 2018? Well, largely, it was a change in his pitch usage.

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Prior to 2018, Musgrove relied primarily on his fastball, slider, and curveball. While his slider usage dropped in 2018, it became a more effective pitch. Furthermore, an increase in changeup usage worked for Musgrove.

Musgrove’s changeup was arguably his best pitch in 2018. Which made the decision to throw more changeups a smart one by Musgrove and pitching coach Ray Searage. Musgrove threw his changeup 13.9% of the time in 2018, after throwing it on just 9.7% of pitches in 2017. His changeup carried a 41.8% whiff rate and just a .233 wOBA in 2018 while opposing batters hit just .190 against the pitch.

Musgrove also benefitted from the slider revolution last season. Despite a near 7% drop in pitch usage, 27.5% in 2017 to 20.9% in 2018, he saw the whiff rate on his slider increase by 7.2%. Opposing batters owned a 36.8% whiff rate against his slider in 2018 which was a big jump from 29.6% in 2017. Opposing hitters owned just a .257 wOBA while batting .228 against his slider last season.

While Musgrove ditched his curveball in 2018, he, obviously, did not do that with his fastball. He did, however, modify it. After relying primarily on a four-seamer in the past, he threw a cutter more often in 2018.

Musgrove’s cutter usage jumped from 4.7% in 2017 to 15.4% in 2018. Meanwhile, his four-seamer usage went from 40.5% to 32.1%. This was also beneficial. While his cutter was not terribly effective (.493 slugging percentage, .345 wOBA, 14.8% whiff rate) throwing more of them helped his four-seamer improve.

After opposing hitters slugged .641 with a .426 wOBA against his four-seamer in 2017, these numbers dropped to .364 and .305 in 2018. The batting average against his four-seamer dropped as well from .341 to .225.

During 2018 Joe Musgrove took a huge leap forward as a starting pitcher. His improvement was a big reason why the team exceeded expectations on their way to their first winning season since 2015. The Pirates control Musgrove for the next four seasons, and he should continue to be a strong mid-rotation starter for the Pirates during these years.