Rum Bunter’s 2019 Pittsburgh Pirates Staff Preview: Marty

Team MVP – Starling Marte

Make no mistake about it, this is Starling Marte‘s team. He is the team’s longest tenured player, as well as their best player. When he is healthy and playing to his max capability, Marte can be one of the best two-way players in the National League. In order to reach the postseason in 2019, the Pirates need get the best version of Marte.

Marte missed 80-games due to a PED suspension in 2017. This is a big reason why the 2017 Pirates finished below .500. Marte played in 145 games in 2018, the most he had played in since playing 154 games in 2015. It’s not a coincidence that 2018 was the team’s first winning season since 2015.

In 2018 Marte bounced back from his tumultuous 2017 season by slashing .277/.327/.460 with a 113 wRC+ and a 3.7 fWAR. He also posted a 5.2 dWAR in his first full season manning center field.

Since the start of the 2013 season Marte owns a 20.8 fWAR, which is 17th best in the National League. Had he not missed half the 2017 season, when he posted a 1.7 fWAR, due to suspension, he would be in the top-15, if not the top-10 of the NL in fWAR the past six seasons. Throw in Marte being former All-Star and two-time Gold Glove Award winner, and he has quietly become one of the best players in the NL.

Marte needs to be the Pirates leader in 2019. He needs to lead in the clubhouse, at the plate, and in the field. Marte knows he has the responsibility of leading this team in 2019, and he will rise to the occasion and be the team’s best player.

Team Cy Young – Jameson Taillon

2018 was a breakout season for former first round draft pick Jameson Taillon. After battling hernia issues, coming back from Tommy John Surgery, and kicking cancer’s ass, Taillon finally put together a full, healthy MLB season in 2018.

In 32 starts last season Taillon posted a 3.20 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in 191 innings pitched. His 22.8% strikeout rate was a career best, his 5.9% walk rate dropped by 1.9% from 2017, and he allowed three earned runs or less in each of his final 22 starts. Taillon’s 3.8 fWAR ranked 10th in the league, and he was one of just four NL starters to pitch multiple complete games.

During the aforementioned final 22 starts Taillon turned a corner. He added a slider to his repertoire and became one of the best starting pitchers in the National League.

In these 22 starts he posted a 2.71 ERA and a 3.20 FIP in 139 2/3 innings pitched. He allowed just 13 home runs (0.84 HR/9), struck out 23.1% of batters faced, and his walk rate was a strong 5.3%. If Taillon can do this for 30+ starts in 2019, the Pirates will have a legitimate Cy Young contender anchoring their starting rotation.

The main reason for optimism around the 2019 Pittsburgh Pirates stems from their starting rotation. With a duo of Taillon and Chris Archer at the top it is easy to see why. Taillon is only going to continue to improve and is in store for a big 2019 season. Do not be surprised to see Taillon earn his first career All-Star bid, as well as Cy Young consideration in 2019.

Team Rookie of the Year – Nick Burdi

The popular pick here may be Mitch Keller. One of the team’s top hitting prospect at Triple-A such as Cole Tucker or Ke’Bryan Hayes probably come to people’s mind as well. However, Keller is far from a slam dunk and the other two have a lot of work to do yet at Triple-A. Nick Burdi, however, already appears ready to make an impact.

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded for Nick Burdi at last year’s MLB Winter Meetings after the Philadelphia Phillies selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Burdi was recovering from Tommy John Surgery and was set to miss most of 2018. This is exactly what happened, but now Burdi is healthy and his stuff looks filthy.

This spring Burdi showed a power fastball that touched 100 miles per hour and a wipe out slider. His electric stuff, shutout to one of my all-time favorite Buccos Charlie Morton, is what made Burdi one of the Minnesota Twins’ top pitching prospects before undergoing surgery.

Burdi was able to earn a September call up in 2018. After pitching 1 2/3 innings in September, he has now logged one of the three months he must be on the active roster due to his Rule 5 status. Burdi must spend the first two months of the season on the team’s active roster, or else the Pirates will have to either return him to the Twins or work out a trade to keep him.

Luckily, all signs point toward this being a non-issue. While Burdi is likely to begin the season pitching in middle relief and low leverage situations, if this spring was any sign of things to come that could change. Burdi has the pure stuff to work his way up the bullpen ladder and become a trusted reliever for Clint Hurdle in 2019. The right-handed rookie appears primed to make a strong, deep Pirate bullpen even better.

Strongest Position Group – The Bullpen

Arguments can be made for the starting rotation, catcher, and the outfield. However, the Pirate bullpen is arguably the best in the National League and gets the nod as the team’s strongest position group.

There may not be a better 8th/9th inning duo in the NL, if not all of baseball, than Keone Kela and Felipe Vazquez. Vazquez is quickly developing into arguably the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and Kela was dominant last season with both the Pirates and Texas Rangers. The Pirates bullpen goes much deeper than just these two, though.

Most managers would kill to have an 8th/9th inning duo as good as Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez, let alone to have these two as the bridge men to the back end of the ‘pen. If the Pirates have the lead after the 6th inning, these four give the opposing team little hope. Hell, the Pirates could play a lot of 5 inning games if need be this season. Luckily, due to the starting rotation that should not be the case.

The team’s middle relief appears to be shaping up nicely as well. As you read above, Burdi looked great in Spring Training. He has back end of the bullpen stuff, and will begin the season in a middle relief role.

Despite his struggles in recent seasons, Francisco Liriano still mows left-handed hitters down. Last season lefties slashed just .171/.255/.261 off of Liriano to go with a 22.5% strikeout rate. This should be a great weapon for Hurdle in 2019, especially in a division that is loaded with good left-handed hitters. The 35-year-old lefty should also be a big boost to the team’s middle relief.

The Pirates should also have some good depth options at Triple-A Indianapolis. Geoff Hartlieb turned a lot of heads this spring, and moving to the bullpen permanently should serve Clay Holmes well. Rookie Davis, Brandon Maurer, and Steven Brault are all intriguing depth options as well.

Weakest Position Group – The Middle Infield

Entering the offseason the Pirates had one major need – shortstop. Outside of a November trade to acquire Erik Gonzalez from the Cleveland Indians, the team failed to address this need. Largely due to this, the middle infield is shaping up to be the team’s weakest position group to begin the season.

Gonzalez will begin the season as the team’s starting shortstop. Defensively, Gonzalez could be one of the best fielding shortstops in the NL. However, his offense leaves a lot to be desired and then some.

More from Rum Bunter

• Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Stockwatch: Outfielder Tres Gonzalez
• Pittsburgh Pirates Podcast: Rum Bunter Radio Talks Winter Meetings Fallout
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential Leadoff Hitters in 2023
• Pittsburgh Pirates: The Rotation is not being Improved
• Pittsburgh Pirates Make Vince Velasquez Signing Official

In 275 MLB plate appearances Gonzalez owns a .263/.292/.389 slash line with a wRC+ of 78. His 28.7% strikeout rate and 57.1% groundball rate are both, well, bad. His lifetime 36.2% hard contact rate is above league average, the problem is he doesn’t make enough contact.

Gonzalez offensive struggles were nothing new when he arrived at the MLB level. In 2,930 career minor league plate appearances Gonzalez owns a .273/.314/.397 slash line and a 102 wRC+. These numbers are average at best.

If Gonzalez fails at shortstop, the job will go to Kevin Newman. The former first round draft pick is an average best defender at shortstop, has never hit for power during his professional career, and slashed just .209/.247/.231 in his first 97 MLB plate appearances last season. The outlook at shortstop is bleak as the regular season begins.

While shortstop is the far bigger issue of the two, second base is no slam dunk for 2019 either. Adam Frazier is set to become the team’s starting second baseman. However, his defense at second base has always been a major question mark and it remains to be seen if he can be a good hitter when playing every day.

Second base should be in good hands, at least offensively, with Frazier, but he needs to prove it. Even if he hits well, the team’s middle infield defense will likely be a mess in 2019.

Predicting The 2019 Record

If there was one word to describe the Pittsburgh Pirates entering the 2019 season it would be intriguing. The Bucs have a very strong pitching staff that should give them an opportunity to win every night. That said, there are plenty of question marks surrounding their lineup and defense.

The two keys for the Pirates in 2019 may prove to be Jung Ho Kang and Josh Bell. If Kang can carry his spring success and power surge that has made him look like the 3+ WAR player he was in 2015 and 2016 into the regular season, that would go a long toward answers the questions around this lineup. If Bell can do what he did in the final four months of 2018 (.378 OBP, .422 slugging percentage, .150 ISO, 122 wRC+) for all six months of 2019, well, it would have a similar impact to that of Kang adding much needed thump to the middle of the Pirate lineup.

Infield defense is the other question mark. Bell and Frazier are below average fielders, and Kang is average at best at third base. This will put a lot of pressure on Gonzalez at short, and if he fails offensively we may start to see more of Newman who is an average at best defender at the position.

Ultimately, the Pirates have too much pitching for me to predict a losing record. That said, there are too many question marks around their lineup and defense for me to predict a postseason berth. Had they better address shortstop and the final rotation spot in the offseason, may feelings on the postseason could be different.

2019 record prediction: 85-77