Should Pittsburgh Pirates Fans Believe?

With the team off to a good start, should fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates start believing in this team?

We’re a little more than 10% through the 2019 season, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are, gasp, pretty good. Good enough that I find myself feeling cautiously optimistic that this team can contend, which leads to the question I inevitably ask when experiencing any spark of hope regarding the Pirates:

Am I an idiot?

You’re cautiously optimistic, too. You’re thinking, ‘pitching wins championships, and our starters have been lights out.’ This leads to the emotions you inevitably feel when experiencing any spark of hope regarding the Pirates:

Guilt and Shame.

You say to yourself ‘I must be nuts. I’m caving to a fantasy. I’m a disgrace to myself and my family name. How can I be falling for this again? It’s only April. We aren’t deep enough to survive all these injuries. Other teams will load up at the trade deadline, and we’ll get Matt Morris or Jon Niese or a utility infielder with positional flexibility…But man our starters are awesome.’

So, are you a sucker to believe that this team can play deep into October? I’m here to answer that question for you.

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Viewed through the lens of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation, your optimism is well-founded. The starters haven’t been good, they’ve been insane. They lead the NL in ERA, and it’s not even close. They’re also first in runs, hits, and walks allowed.

Amazingly, there’s room for improvement; the best of the bunch, Jameson Taillon, only has one win and sports the worst ERA of the five. Much has been made of the bullpen giving up crucial gopher balls, but the staff as a whole is still second in the NL in homers allowed. The Brewers and Cardinals have surrendered more than twice as many. One category in which the Bucs are not highly ranked is a further cause for confidence. Their starters are averaging just five and two-thirds innings per start, so they’re not being overused.

Take a gander at the hitting, and the guilt and shame start creeping in. The Pirates lead the league in strikeouts. They’re second to last in home runs with only 16. Collectively they’re batting .230. In the modern era, the worst-hitting team to win a pennant was the 1969 Miracle Mets, who hit .242. That team scored 632 runs. The Pirates are on pace to score 580, even less than last year’s anemic squad.

The popular opinion among Pittsburgh pundits is that, with the arrival of Gregory Polanco, half the cavalry has arrived. But keep in mind that the Pirates were middling to bottom in most offensive categories last season, and that was with a full season of Polanco and Corey Dickerson.

The combined record of the teams the Pittsburgh Pirates have beaten up on, i.e. everyone but the Cardinals and Cubs, is 37-47. The Bucs are 1-4 against the Cardinals and Cubs, and herein lays the reality that keeps my buoyancy at bay. Even if both National League Wild Cards come from the NL Central – a distinct possibility, though one that leaves some strong teams out of the playoffs – the Pirates still need to beat the Cardinals, Cubs or Brewers.

It can be argued that the Bucs should have won both games against the Cardinals, but good teams find a way to win and lousy teams find a way to lose. I’m not saying that’s how the season will turn out, I’m just sayin’.

Fortune needs to smile on any club that captures a pennant, even those with front offices that prioritize winning over profit. For the Pirates, one senses that everything must go right, and then the seas must part.

Pittsburgh fans shouldn’t need to believe in miracles to suppose that their baseball team has a shot. Unfortunately, that’s where we are. But miracles do happen, right? Look at the aforementioned Mets.

Calling the team that won the 1969 World Series the Miracle Mets is misleading, giving into sentimentality and romanticism. That victory was not a supernatural occurrence, and that team was not a fluke. The Mets posted winning records for several years after their title and returned to the World Series in 1973. They won because they had Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman in the starting rotation and a staff that included Tug McGraw and Nolan Ryan.

Miracles happen for a reason. In baseball, that reason is transcendent talent.

I’ve been hearing about a positive vibe in the Pirate clubhouse and a fighting spirit that will take this team to unexpected heights. Those things are lovely. They make me feel warm and fuzzy inside. But talent trumps all.

Great pitching can bring home a championship. How great is the Pirates’ pitching? Is there a 25-game winner on this staff? Two future Hall of Famers?

Are you a sucker to believe that this team can go deep into October? Probably.

Join the club.

With the team off to a good start, should fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates start believing in this team?

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