Pittsburgh Pirates: Top Performing Minor League Hitters Part Two

Looking at how hitters in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system performed in 2018 and who to keep an eye out for in 2019 using z-scores in several offensive categories.

In this month to date, Nick has released our site’s top 30 prospects and earlier in the offseason, I’ve documented composite top 100 rankings based on four major prospect sites.  Today will be the second part of a four-part series, looking at how hitters performed in 2018 to look to see who might be an underrated prospect; the series will go in the order of the really low minors (the three rookie leagues), the low minors (A ball), the upper minors (Double-A and Triple-A), and then ending with a wrap up.

Often times the phrase “you can’t scout the stat line” is thrown around, and it is true, there’s more variables in terms of make up, a pitcher’s stuff, a hitter’s approach, base running, and fielding, etc.  Teams do try to use a model, with Chris Mitchell’s KATOH being one of the more popular ones, and Kevin Creagh developed the Stat Scout Line.  This analysis isn’t a model, rather a summation of z-scores in different statistics to determine which hitters have performed well compared to other prospects.

Because each level of the minor leagues has different players and the goal is to look at potential prospects (sorry Ryan Lavarnway), setting a maximum age requirement and minimum plate appearance requirement is a must.  Since this is looking at 2018, there will be some players who appear on these lists that are no longer in the organization because of a trade, free agency, or they were released.  For each level among hitters we have the following requirements and total number of player seasons:

Across each level, the statistics used for how well a prospect has performed will be the following: age, average, on-base, slugging, isolated power (ISO), strikeout rate, and unintentional walk rate.  Strikeout rate will be multiplied by negative one as a lower than average rate is better, and the same goes for age; a prospect younger than average and performing deserves more credit.  The averages for each level are:

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Low-A: New York Penn League

Most college drafted players go to the New York Penn League to start off their professional careers.  2018 first round pick Travis Swaggerty started at this level, and while he did have a concerning strikeout rate, he was second in total z-score.

Fabricio Macias is a 21-year-old outfielder who last season hit .325/.373/.429 in the NYPL in 19 games before being promoted to the SALLY.  He struggled there in 148 plate appearances, and he only hit .318/.351/.382 in the Mexican League.  His performance in the NYPL seems more of a blip on the radar than anything else.

Swaggerty performed well, hitting .288/.365/.453 with an 8.1 percent walk rate and 25.3 percent strikeout rate.  Only the walk rate and strikeout rate came out poorly, and he was a full standard deviation higher in slugging and isolated power.  He got called up to the SALLY to end the season.

Connor Kaiser was the team’s third round pick in 2018, and the third rounder struggled, hitting .212/.303/.260 in 31 games before being promoted to the SALLY.  Fangraphs compares him to Jordy Mercer, writing “a bigger college shortstop without big offensive impact; Kaiser was scorching hot in the college postseason but needs to dial in his swing and approach.”  The top performers in total z-score are below:

A: South Atlantic League

The South Atlantic League featured some top prospects last year for the Pirates, including Swaggerty, Lolo Sanchez, Calvin Mitchell, and Oneil Cruz.  Sanchez was the name to keep an eye out for last season and be one of the club’s top breakout prospects, but it was Cruz and Mitchell that stole the show.  Here are the components for each player:

Sanchez was young for the level, but hit only .243/.322/.328.  He has 60 speed according to Fangraphs, and his report was:

"“2018 Lolo Sanchez was a mechanical mess whose strikeout rate doubled. Sanchez’s hands began loading even lower than they had before, way down near the bottom of his abdomen, presumably to introduce more lift to his swing.”"

Sanchez just turned 20 and is hitting .321/.386/.551 so far in 22 games in his repeat of this level.  There is still the toolset, Sanchez just needs to keep his mechanics consistent and with a big year he could get back to being an upper 15 prospect in the system.

Cruz was the real breakout prospect, coming over in the Tony Watson trade in 2017, looking similar to Pirates right fielder Gregory Polanco mechanically and with his numbers.  The shortstop hit .286/.343/.488 last season, but the defensive profile and where he’ll end up remains a question.  Given the size, 6’7″ and 175 pounds, the path for Cruz is more fuzzy but he is one of the better prospects currently in the system.

Mitchell, a second round pick in 2017, hit .280/.344/.427 last season and in his first 21 games in high-A, he’s off to a .271/.315/.482 start.  Fangraphs grades Mitchell’s future speed at 40, throw 40, and fielding 50.  That limits him to a corner, with the site noting left field or maybe even first base.  They write that,

"“He has really quick, loose hands in the box and he can move the barrel all over the place. His bat head drags through the hitting zone a bit, which can make it tough for him to pull pitches he should be crushing.”"

Along with Cruz, the 20-year-old Mitchell were the top performers in the system.  Sanchez struggled, but was really young for the level and is repeating A ball to start 2019.  Swaggerty struggled, and Mason Martin wasn’t able to answer some questions after his hot start in pro-ball in 2017.  The top Z-Scores are below:

High-A: Florida State League (FSL)

The Pirates didn’t have many hitting prospects in the Florida State League in 2018 with Jared Oliva being the most exciting of the bunch.  Arden Pabst, a catcher, is the second most exciting, and over the last two seasons he has struggled in Double-A Altoona.  The components of the six players are:

Oliva came from Arizona in the seventh round back in 2017.  He’s a right-right centerfield with his best tool being his 60 grade speed.  Fangraphs wrote that

"“Oliva’s feel for contact is still somewhat clumsy and he remains a power-over-hit offensive performer at the plate, but he’s an athlete in the classic center field mold, like Drew Stubbs and Cameron Maybin, and is very likely to play there for a while.”"

Last season, Oliva hit .275/.354/.424, with the only real negative being the strikeout rate and age.  He was never a full standard deviation above the average in any category, but for a prospect who is a projected power with solid defense in center, it’s livable.  The former Wildcat is currently in Double-A Altoona for 2019.  The Total Z-Score for all players are below:

The numbers are not adjusted for park and league and some of the players above have since been traded or released since the start of the 2018 season.  The biggest names to watch in these mid levels are Travis Swaggerty, Oneil Cruz, Calvin Mitchell, and Jared Oliva.  Swaggerty has struggled in the SALLY and isn’t off to a hot start in 2019.  Cruz has a fractured foot and will be out some time.