What Is Driving Josh Bell’s Hot Start?

Despite serious offensive struggles that have plagued the Pittsburgh Pirates early on, one player stands out above the rest of the injured-riddled team. That player is first baseman Josh Bell.

Josh Bell has begun this season hotter than he ever has been. 26 games into the season he owns a .280/.355/.591 slash line, a .385 wOBA and a 141wRC+, placing him towards the top of a strong group of first basemen in the National League Central. Only the newly arrived Paul Goldschmidt ahead of him with a .400 wOBA and 151 wRC+.

So what has changed with Bell? After cracking 26 home runs in a strong rookie season, Bell fell backwards in his sophomore year when he only hit 12 home runs in 583 plate appearances. Despite the drop in power, Bell still managed to have a decent season at the plate, but concerns fell on whether or not Bell could be the power hitter he appeared to be in his rookie campaign.

So far, in just over 100 plate appearances this season, Bell has already produced half the home runs as he did last season. His HR/FB rate is 24%, 15 points higher than last season, and his fly ball rate sits at a career high of 36.8%. Entering play on Sunday, his 94.4 mph exit velocity and 53% hard contact rate rank within the top 3% and top 6% in the league while his barrel rate is 14.7%, 8 points higher than the league average. And after hitting two more balls at 100+ miles per hour on Sunday, these numbers will only go up. Bell has also whiffed only 23.4% of the time compared to 34.7%.

The biggest difference in Bell’s approach at the plate has come against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. According to pitch track data from Baseball Savant, Bell has a wOBA of .369 against breaking pitches, well above the .287 wOBA he posted last season. His slugging percentage of .545 against breaking pitches is also well above his last year mark of .339.

Against offspeed pitches, Bell has posted a .524 slugging percentage compared to .318 last season. So far he has knocked 2 home runs against offspeed pitches after hitting none all last season. Bell’s improvements against breaking and offspeed pitches will certainly be a driving force for his success in 2019.

Bell has also been crushing fastballs better and more often so far this season, posting a .630 slugging percentage and a .417 wOBA compared to last season when he posted .458 and .360 respectively. The drastic improvements mentioned earlier coupled with his dominance of fastballs means Bell has become a much more dangerous hitter for pitchers to get out.

Despite the small sample of 100 plate appearances, 2019 has all the signs to be a breakout campaign for the 26-year-old first baseman as he is building off a strong finish from last season when he posted a .359 wOBA, 123 wRC+ and a .177 ISO in the second half. Since July 1, 2018 Bell is hitting .274/.378/.485 with a .369 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ in 352 plate appearances.

With Josh Bell in the heart of the lineup, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have to hope that the returns of Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, and Lonnie Chisenhall can give Bell the protection in the lineup he needs to take his game to the next level. Until then, he will have to continue dominating to keep the Pirates in ballgames.