Pittsburgh Pirates: Top Performing Minor League Hitters Part Four

Looking at how hitters in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor leagues performed in 2018 and who to keep an eye out for in 2019 using z-scores in several offensive categories.

In this month to date, Nick has released our site’s top 30 prospects and earlier in the offseason, I’ve documented composite top 100 rankings based on four major prospect sites.  Today will be the fourth and final part of a four-part series, looking at how hitters performed in 2018 to look to see who might be an underrated prospect; the series will go in the order of the really low minors (the three rookie leagues), the low minors (A ball), the upper minors (Double-A and Triple-A), and then ending with a wrap up.

Often times the phrase “you can’t scout the stat line” is thrown around, and it is true, there’s more variables in terms of make up, a pitcher’s stuff, a hitter’s approach, base running, and fielding, etc.  Teams do try to use a model, with Chris Mitchell’s KATOH being one of the more popular ones, and Kevin Creagh developed the Stat Scout Line.  This analysis isn’t a model, rather a summation of z-scores in different statistics to determine which hitters have performed well compared to other prospects.

Because each level of the minor leagues has different players and the goal is to look at potential prospects (sorry Ryan Lavarnway), setting a maximum age requirement and minimum plate appearance requirement is a must.  Since this is looking at 2018, there will be some players who appear on these lists that are no longer in the organization because of a trade, free agency, or they were released.  For each level among hitters we have the following requirements and total number of player seasons:

Across each level, the statistics used for how well a prospect has performed will be the following: age, average, on-base, slugging, isolated power (ISO), strikeout rate, and unintentional walk rate.  Strikeout rate will be multiplied by negative one as a lower than average rate is better, and the same goes for age; a prospect younger than average and performing deserves more credit.  The averages for each level are:

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The players who are still with the Pirates in 2019 (and still a hitter) are listed below ordered by their 2019 level.  Players who met the plate appearance threshold in more than one level, the weighted average based on plate appearances is their total 2018 z-score.  The 2019 levels were acquired via MiLB and Pirates Prospects.

The top five hitters are Jack Herman, Jonah Davis, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Jose Osuna.  Hayes looks to be the Pirates top prospect, or second depending on the outlet, and Oneil Cruz is not far off.  Herman and Davis both had strong first professional debuts, but given they were 30th and 15th round picks respectively, much more will need to be seen as the pedigree isn’t there.  On the flip side, former second round pick Conner Uselton finds himself in the bottom five.  He’ll need to start producing soon to keep his status as a prospect instead of becoming an org guy.

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At the end of the 2018 season, the Pirates had the 11th best farm system with a value of $202 million.  Using The Board and Driveline and Fangraph’s combined value of a prospect as a proxy, we can estimate how much value the farm system currently has.  Without the accounting for any 45 FV players or less (The Board only has players graded 50 or higher since the team lists are not all finished), the Pirates come out as the 12th best system with $162 million in value.  The best estimate is the Pirates are around the 10-13 range, as the Nationals are tenth with $166 in value.

In Driveline’s latest research, they looked at the value team’s have generated in player development from 2012-2019 whether it be via the draft, international free agency, or acquiring prospects in trade.  To no real surprise, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, and St. Louis Cardinals are the top three teams.  The Dodgers and Astros are known for their progressive methods of player development and both teams have acquired highly sought after players in recent years without trading their top prospects.  The Cardinals always seemingly scout and develop well.

The Pirates are 19th on the list, generating $10.1 million in value.  While the draft record of Neal Huntington has been talked about, the value gained through their development process in general should be the flag raised more often.  While the value generated is a positive, the club needs to be much higher than 19th to be able to supplement the Major League roster given their spending habits in free agency.  They lag behind the upper echelon of teams, and for a team that once was at the front of the analytical wave and don’t believe in windows, the Pirates need to find a way to gain more value in their development to have sustainable winning opportunities.