Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Prospects In The MLB Pipeline Top 100

Pitcher Mitch Keller

2019 season ending ranking: 26
2020 preseason ranking: 39

It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Pirates’ best prospect fall 13 spots. After all, Mitch Keller, 23, performed very well in Triple-A, and even was semi-decent at the major league level.

Last season in Indianapolis, the right hander pitched to the tune of a 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.60 ERA in 103.2 innings. Despite playing in a league where there were almost 60 players with a slugging of .500+, Keller had a 0.78 HR/9, which was the second lowest in the International League. He also ranked fourth in ERA, first in K/9 (10.68), and first in FIP.

Although his Major League ERA and WHIP looked awful on the surface (7.13 ERA, 1.83), he still had a strong 4.06 K/BB ratio, and was extremely unlucky, and even that might be an understatement. He somehow managed a .475 opponent batting average on balls in play, which, for starters, is 100% unsustainable. He still carried a 3.19 FIP, and 3.78 SIERA (or skill interactive ERA), which both are comparable to some no-name starter Clayton Kershaw (3.10 FIP/3.77 SIERA). I have previously went much further into detail of how unlucky Keller was in his major league debut innings, which you can read here: Mitch Keller’s Unlucky 2019, And Why He’ll Be The Team’s Ace By The End Of 2020

Keller is still given great overall grades for his pitches. MLB.com gives his fastball a 65 grade, and his curve a 55 grade, while his slider and change up are given 50’s. He is also given a 50 grade for his control and is an overall 55. Just for reference, 50 is considered the mean in terms of prospect tool grades.

Third Baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes

2019 season ending ranking: 36
2020 preseason ranking: 41

The Pirates’ best position player prospect fell five spots from the last rankings, and it’s understandable given his slow start in Triple-A Indianapolis. In his first 63 games in Indy, Ke’Bryan Hayes, 22, hit just .245/.336/.398, and hitting just 4 home runs. While power has never been his strong suit, a .398 slugging mark is lower than his 2018 percentage of .444.

But Hayes would miss most of June and part of the first week of July. However the 7-day injured list placement seemed to fix Hayes, as he would go on to finish out the season strong. Through his final 47 games of 2019, the prospect hit the ball at a .290/.337/.435 rate with 6 home runs. Overall, Hayes finished out the 2019 season with a .265/.336/.415 line, 10 long balls, and a 92 wRC+ through 480 plate appearances.

Hayes takes a contact approach to the plate, usually having a high batting average, but low strikeout rates, and having a 55 hit tool but. However he did draw walks at a strong 11.2% rate in 2018. The third baseman is also extremely athletic. His ability to run the bases is given a 55 grade on MLB.com. But his calling card is his fielding. Hayes is given an overall grade of 65 for his fielding and 60 for his arm. No other top third base prospect has both 60+ grades in those categories. Currently, he is ranked as the second best third base prospect, just behind Phillies prospect Alex Bohm.

Shortstop Oneil Cruz

2019 season ending ranking: 57
2020 preseason ranking: 64

Acquired for Tony Watson back during the 2017 trade deadline, the 21-year-old Oneil Cruz has silently been climbing his way up the minors for the Pirates. Cruz has an unconventional frame for a shortstop. He is listed at a towering 6-foot-7, and 175 pounds. When the Pirates originally traded for him back in 2017, he was primarily seeing time at third base but has transitioned to shortstop.

Oneil Cruz’s 2018 season is what put him on him on the prospect map. In Single-A West Virginia, Cruz hit for a strong .286/.343/.488 in 443 plate appearances. He slugged 14 home runs, but also swiped 11 bases. Overall, 134 wRC+.

Cruz probably would have either stayed in the mid-50’s, or moved up a handful of spots after the 2019 season, if it weren’t for injuries. Cruz suffered a fractured foot, and lower body discomfort, which led him to play just 73 games and step to the plate less than 300 times (292).

But when Cruz was healthy, he was producing with the bat. In Single-A Bradenton, Cruz was hitting .301/.345/.515 with 7 home runs in 145 plate appearances. That resulted in a 154 wRC+. He was eventually moved up to Double-A Altoona, and produced solid, but not spectacular numbers. Regardless, he still posted a 120 wRC+, and .269/.346/.412 line through 136 PA’s. Cruz clearly is still a year or so removed from seeing consistent MLB action, and needs more seasoning at Double-A, but has shown progress at each level. From Bradenton to Altoona, Cruz doubled his walk rate, having it go from 5.5% to 11%.

Cruz’s best tool is his arm. It’s given a 70 grade, which I can only find 3 other players on the list with an arm rating of 70. Two are catchers (A’s Sean Murphy, and Braves’ Shea Langeliers), and Braves’ outfield prospect Cristian Pache. His next best tool is his power at a 60 grade, but given his 6’7 frame, that shouldn’t be a big surprise. What might come as a surprise is his run grade of 55.

Cruz’s final position could still be up in the air. He is an adequate shortstop, having a 50 fielding grade at the position, but with so many young middle infielders in the Pirates organization, it would be hard for him to push through at the position. The same thing over at the hot corner with Ke’Bryan Hayes. The general consensus seems to be him moving to right field. After all, Cruz has the arm to play right field. He also has the speed to get around. Personally, I think he could become an Aaron Judge-lite in the future.

The Borderlines

Of the two players in the Pirates’ system that made MLB.com’s top 10 players at each position list, one did not make it. That one player being South Korean middle infield prospect Ji-Hwan Bae. Last season, Bae played just 86 games/380 plate appearances in part due to domestic violence charges which led to a suspension by the MLB.

But in Single-A Greensboro, Bae was one of the team’s best players. He hit .323/.403/.430. Despite his .430 slugging, he didn’t have a single home run. Bae is your prototypical leadoff hitter. He had a .323 BA, and .403 OBP. He walked 11.3% of the time, and stole 31 bags. Bae, the 9th best 2B prospect, has been given overall average ratings for his glove and arm (50), but a 70 run grade and 55 hit tool.

Travis Swaggerty probably also would have made the top-100, had it not been for a slow start in Bradenton. Like Hayes, the top prospect trudged through the first half of the season, hitting for a measly .221/.318/.329, before going on to hit for a robust .306/.375/.430 in the second half. The former first rounder is one of the best defensive outfield prospects, having ended 2019 with 55 grades for both his fielding and arm, and a 60 grade for his running ability.