Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Prospects In The MLB Pipeline Top 100

With MLB.com releasing their top 100 prospects list earlier today, the Pittsburgh Pirates are left with just three on the list.

On Saturday, MLB.com released their top 100 prospects preseason rankings. In their rankings, the Pittsburgh Pirates received three prospects in the top 100. The three who made it shouldn’t be a huge surprise, and I’m sure you if you haven’t seen who made it, you can guess who they are.

For a team that primarily builds from within, the Pirates only having three top 100 prospects isn’t the greatest look. While the off-season is far from over, and the team could still make a move to add to this list, especially if they do trade center fielder Starling Marte before Opening Day, right now these are the three prospects who made MLB.com’s annually top 100.

Pitcher Mitch Keller

2019 season ending ranking: 26
2020 preseason ranking: 39

It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Pirates’ best prospect fall 13 spots. After all, Mitch Keller, 23, performed very well in Triple-A, and even was semi-decent at the major league level.

Last season in Indianapolis, the right hander pitched to the tune of a 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.60 ERA in 103.2 innings. Despite playing in a league where there were almost 60 players with a slugging of .500+, Keller had a 0.78 HR/9, which was the second lowest in the International League. He also ranked fourth in ERA, first in K/9 (10.68), and first in FIP.

Although his Major League ERA and WHIP looked awful on the surface (7.13 ERA, 1.83), he still had a strong 4.06 K/BB ratio, and was extremely unlucky, and even that might be an understatement. He somehow managed a .475 opponent batting average on balls in play, which, for starters, is 100% unsustainable. He still carried a 3.19 FIP, and 3.78 SIERA (or skill interactive ERA), which both are comparable to some no-name starter Clayton Kershaw (3.10 FIP/3.77 SIERA). I have previously went much further into detail of how unlucky Keller was in his major league debut innings, which you can read here: Mitch Keller’s Unlucky 2019, And Why He’ll Be The Team’s Ace By The End Of 2020

Keller is still given great overall grades for his pitches. MLB.com gives his fastball a 65 grade, and his curve a 55 grade, while his slider and change up are given 50’s. He is also given a 50 grade for his control and is an overall 55. Just for reference, 50 is considered the mean in terms of prospect tool grades.

Third Baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes

2019 season ending ranking: 36
2020 preseason ranking: 41

The Pirates’ best position player prospect fell five spots from the last rankings, and it’s understandable given his slow start in Triple-A Indianapolis. In his first 63 games in Indy, Ke’Bryan Hayes, 22, hit just .245/.336/.398, and hitting just 4 home runs. While power has never been his strong suit, a .398 slugging mark is lower than his 2018 percentage of .444.

But Hayes would miss most of June and part of the first week of July. However the 7-day injured list placement seemed to fix Hayes, as he would go on to finish out the season strong. Through his final 47 games of 2019, the prospect hit the ball at a .290/.337/.435 rate with 6 home runs. Overall, Hayes finished out the 2019 season with a .265/.336/.415 line, 10 long balls, and a 92 wRC+ through 480 plate appearances.

Hayes takes a contact approach to the plate, usually having a high batting average, but low strikeout rates, and having a 55 hit tool but. However he did draw walks at a strong 11.2% rate in 2018. The third baseman is also extremely athletic. His ability to run the bases is given a 55 grade on MLB.com. But his calling card is his fielding. Hayes is given an overall grade of 65 for his fielding and 60 for his arm. No other top third base prospect has both 60+ grades in those categories. Currently, he is ranked as the second best third base prospect, just behind Phillies prospect Alex Bohm.

The Borderlines

Of the two players in the Pirates’ system that made MLB.com’s top 10 players at each position list, one did not make it. That one player being South Korean middle infield prospect Ji-Hwan Bae. Last season, Bae played just 86 games/380 plate appearances in part due to domestic violence charges which led to a suspension by the MLB.

But in Single-A Greensboro, Bae was one of the team’s best players. He hit .323/.403/.430. Despite his .430 slugging, he didn’t have a single home run. Bae is your prototypical leadoff hitter. He had a .323 BA, and .403 OBP. He walked 11.3% of the time, and stole 31 bags. Bae, the 9th best 2B prospect, has been given overall average ratings for his glove and arm (50), but a 70 run grade and 55 hit tool.

Travis Swaggerty probably also would have made the top-100, had it not been for a slow start in Bradenton. Like Hayes, the top prospect trudged through the first half of the season, hitting for a measly .221/.318/.329, before going on to hit for a robust .306/.375/.430 in the second half. The former first rounder is one of the best defensive outfield prospects, having ended 2019 with 55 grades for both his fielding and arm, and a 60 grade for his running ability.